Forecasting, Theory and Practice

STATISTICAL INSIGHTS NEEDED TO DEVELOP GOOD FORECASTING MODELS......Page 1 A fuller account of bias and variance can be found in (1). Bias and variance provide insights into the problems of modelling data, but no precise advice on how to do it. General advice on this point comes from a result known as Occam’s Razor, which can......Page 2 DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS CONCEPTS......Page 3 EXPERIENCE WITH MODELLING DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS......Page 4 Sun Tzu’s definition of knowledge: “To understand that you know something when you do, and admit that you do not know something when you do not” is an ideal to which we would like to aspire, but which the vagaries of the marketplace inhibit. Our knowled......Page 5 CONCLUSIONS......Page 6