سیلاب‌ها، قحطی‌ها و امپراتورها: ال نینو و سرنوشت تمدن‌ها

The relationship between climate change and human history is an important subject given our current epoch, however, Fagan's 1999 book book does not give it true justice. Fagan tends to drone on giving example after example before he draws tentative conclusions, which, as other reviewers have noted, can get tedious. One problem here is that he is writing as if his audience are historians or meteorologists, which most of us aren't. Hence, the excurisons into ancient Egypt or mid millenium Peru need more exposition to set the time and place, and fewer examples of this or that ruler. On a related note, this book could benefit enormously with more illustrations and better illustrations. The few illustrations that are present are, to say the least, elemental. Moreover, they don't appear to be located near the text that mentions them, and usually they don't contain most of the subject matter that he is discussing. This type of book needs good illustrations and lots of them. There is merit to the book, and if you can get past the problems listed above, there is some valuable information here. But this is hardly the place to begin if you are interested in this important subject. In 1997 and early 1998, one of the most powerful El Ninos ever recorded disrupted weather patterns all over the world. Europe suffered through a record freeze as the American West was hit with massive floods and snowstorms; in the western Pacific, meanwhile, some island nations literally went bone dry and had to have water flown in on transport planes. Such effects are not new: climatologists now know the El Nino and other climate anomalies have been disrupting weather patterns throughout history. But until recently, no one had asked how this new understanding of the global weather system related to archaeology and history. Droughts, floods, heat and cold put stress on cultures and force them to adapt. What determines whether they adapt successfully? How do these climate stresses affect a people's faith in the foundations of their society and the legitimacy of their rulers? How vulnerable is our own society to climate change? In this dazzlingly original new book, archaeologist Brian Fagan shows that short-term climate shifts have been a major -- and hitherto unrecognized -- force in history. El Nino-driven droughts have brought on the collapse of dynasties in Egypt; El Nino monsoon failures have caused historic famines in India; and El Nino floods have destroyed whole civilizations in Peru. Other short-term climate changes may have caused the mysterious abandonment of the Anasazi dwellings in the American Southwest and the collapse of the ancient Maya empire, as well as changed the course of European history. This beautifully written, groundbreaking book opens a new door on our understanding of historical events. From The Publisher: In 1999, Few People Had Thought To Examine The Effects Of Climate On Civilization. Now, Due In Part To The Groundbreaking Work Of Archaeologist Brian Fagan, Climate Change Is A Central Issue. Revised And Updated Ten Years After Its First Publication, Floods, Famines And Emperors Remains The Definitive Account Of How The World's Best-known Climate Event Had An Indelible Impact On History. Author's Note -- Preface -- Acknowledgments -- Part 1: Christmas Child -- 1: Great Visitation -- 2: Guano Happens -- 3: Enso -- 4: North Atlantic Oscillation -- Part 2: Ancient El Ninos -- 5: Time Of Warming -- 6: Pharaohs In Crisis -- 7: Moche Lords -- 8: Classic Maya Collapse -- 9: Ancient Ones -- Part 3: Climate Change And The Stream Of Time -- 10: Catastrophe Of 1877-1878 -- 11: Drought Follows The Plow -- 12: El Ninos That Shook The World -- 13: Fate Of Civilizations -- Notes And Sources -- Index. Brian Fagan. Tenth Anniversary Edition--cover. Includes Bibliographical References (p. 313-329) And Index. 0465005306......Page 1 Contents......Page 8 Author's Note......Page 10 Preface......Page 12 Acknowledgments......Page 22 PART ONE: THE CHRISTMAS CHILD......Page 24 1. The Great Visitation......Page 26 2. Guano Happens......Page 50 3. ENSO......Page 68 4. The North Atlantic Oscillation......Page 88 PART TWO: ANCIENT EL NIÑOS......Page 110 5. A Time of Warming......Page 112 6. Pharaohs in Crisis......Page 142 7. The Moche Lords......Page 166 8. The Classic Maya Collapse......Page 192 9. The Ancient Ones......Page 218 PART THREE: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE STREAM OF TIME......Page 242 10. The Catastrophe of 1877–1878......Page 244 11. "Drought Follows the Plow"......Page 268 12. El Niños That Shook the World......Page 292 13. The Fate of Civilizations......Page 314 Notes and Sources......Page 336 A......Page 354 C......Page 356 E......Page 358 G......Page 360 I......Page 361 M......Page 363 N......Page 365 P......Page 366 S......Page 367 T......Page 368 Z......Page 369 Basic Books ISBN-13:,9780465005307 0465005306 1 Contents 8 Author's Note 10 Preface 12 Acknowledgments 22 PART ONE: THE CHRISTMAS CHILD 24 1. The Great Visitation 26 2. Guano Happens 50 3. ENSO 68 4. The North Atlantic Oscillation 88 PART TWO: ANCIENT EL NIÑOS 110 5. A Time of Warming 112 6. Pharaohs in Crisis 142 7. The Moche Lords 166 8. The Classic Maya Collapse 192 9. The Ancient Ones 218 PART THREE: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE STREAM OF TIME 242 10. The Catastrophe of 1877–1878 244 11. "Drought Follows the Plow" 268 12. El Niños That Shook the World 292 13. The Fate of Civilizations 314 Notes and Sources 336 Index 354 A 354 B 356 C 356 D 358 E 358 F 360 G 360 H 361 I 361 J 363 K 363 L 363 M 363 N 365 O 366 P 366 Q 367 R 367 S 367 T 368 U 369 V 369 W 369 Y 369 Z 369 Civilisations have long been dictated by cycles of rise and fall. The author shows beautifully how El Nino gave rise to human civilisation and continually shape and alter their fates, and how human adapt to a weather system that cycles beyond human lifetimes – or fail to.