Fire on the Water : China, America, and the Future of the Pacific

In __Fire on the Water__, Robert Haddick contends that much of the general public and many U.S. policy experts are unaware of the threat that China’s military modernization poses to America’s national interests in the Asia-Pacific region. He maintains that within a decade China will have the military power to place U.S. influence throughout East Asia at risk. To avoid a future crisis, the United States needs to fashion a new and more competitive strategy, one that better matches the strengths of the United States and its allies against China’s vulnerabilities.The U.S. forward military presence in East Asia is essential to protecting America’s standard of living, its strategic interests, and the region’s stability. This will be an increasingly difficult burden for the United States to sustain. However, U.S. forward presence will be less costly and less risky than encouraging China’s neighbors to counter China’s rising power by themselves, which would likely result in an unstable arms race and a conflict that would damage America’s interests. China’s military strategy, centered on its rapidly expanding aerospace, naval, and land-based missile forces, is exploiting emerging vulnerabilities in America’s forces in the region. Plagued by institutional barriers, the United States has been slow to adapt to China’s rapid military modernization. Current U.S. responses are impractical, because they expend defense resources against China’s strengths rather than its weaknesses. __Fire on the Water__ proposes far-reaching changes to U.S. diplomacy, military programs, and strategies to counter China’s well-designed military modernization plan. The proposed competitive strategy will strengthen deterrence and bolster the credibility of U.S. alliances in the region. Throughout history the rapid arrival of a new great power has usually resulted in conflict. The United States, China, and Asia can avoid that fate if the United States adopts a more competitive strategy to influence China’s choices and thus maintain the region’s stability and prosperity. The Main Theme Of Fire On The Water Is That Conventional Measures Of Military Balance, Employed By Both The General Public And Many Policy Experts, Underestimate The Threat That China’s Military Modernization Poses To The U.s. Position In The Asia-pacific Region. Within A Decade, China’s Leaders Will Have The Military Power To Hold At Risk U.s. Interest In East Asia. The U.s. Needs To Fashion A New And Competitive Strategy, One That Better Matches The Strengths Of The U.s. And Its Allies Against China’s Vulnerabilities, In Order To Maintain A Balance Of Power In The Region And Convince China’s Leaders To Pursue A Cooperative Course. It Is Not Obvious To Many Observers Why A Conflict In The Region Is Plausible, Or Why The U.s. Should Bear The Responsibility For Maintaining A Forward Military Presence In The Region. China Has Rapidly Emerged As A Great Power And By Doing So, Has Acquired Many Vital Interests Around The World. Following The Pattern Set By Other Such Episodes In History, China Is Also Acquiring The Military Means To Protect Its New Interests, A Development That Puts At Risk The Interests Of China’s Neighbors And The United States. The U.s. Forward Military Presence In The Region Is An Increasingly Difficult Burden To Sustain. But In The Long Run, This Approach Will Be Less Costly And Less Risky Than Encouraging China’s Neighbors To Balance China By Themselves, An Alternative That Will Very Likely Result In An Unstable Arms Race And A Conflict That Will Damage America’s Interests. While It Will Be In America’s Interest To Maintain Its Position In The Asia-pacific Region, China’s Military Modernization Is Making It Much More Difficult For The U.s. To Do So. China’s Military Strategy, Centered On Its Rapidly-expanding Land-based And Anti-ship Missile Forces, Is Exploiting Weaknesses In Long-standing U.s. Force Structure And Doctrine. Due To A Variety Of Institutional Barriers, The U.s. Has Been Slow To Adapt To China’s Military Modernization. Current Efforts To Respond Are Impractical, In That They Expend U.s. Resources Against China’s Strengths Rather Than Its Vulnerabilities. The U.s. Needs A New And Competitive Strategy That Will Strengthen Its Alliances In The Region And Convince China’s Leaders That Cooperation, Rather Than Military Expansion And An Attempt At Regional Hegemony, Will Be China’s Best Course. Fire On The Water Proposes Reforms To U.s. Diplomacy, Military Programs, And Strategy That Will Offer A Better Chance At Preserving Stability. The Goal Of These Reforms Is To Thwart China’s Well-designed Military Modernization Plan, Bolster The Confidence And Credibility Of U.s. Alliances In The Region, And Thus Persuade China’s Leaders That China’s Best Course Is Cooperation Rather Than Conflict, The Outcome That Has Usually Occurred In History When A New Great Power Has Rapidly Emerged. Table of Contents 8 List of Maps 9 Preface 10 Acknowledgments 12 List of Acronyms 14 Introduction 16 1. A Three-Decade Drive to a Collision 22 2. It Matters Who Runs the Pacific 50 3. America's Archaic Military Machine in the Pacific 67 4. China's Strategy: Salami Slicing and the Missilie Revolution 92 5. America Pivots to Asia, then Stumbles 116 6. A Competitive Strategy for the Pacific 144 7. A New Approach to America's Pacific Partnerships 162 8. The Future of Airpower in the Pacific 183 9. The Struggle for Control of the Western Pacific 203 10. A New American Strategy for the Asia-Pacific Region 226 Notes 242 Selected Bibliography 270 Index 284 About the Author 296 A three-decade drive to a collision It matters who runs the Pacific America's archaic military machine in the Pacific China's strategy : salami slicing and the missile revolution America pivots to Asia, then stumbles A competitive strategy for the Pacific A new approach to America's Pacific partnerships The future of air power in the Pacific The struggle for control of the western Pacific A new American strategy for the Asia-Pacific region.