Extreme Events in Nature and Society (The Frontiers Collection)

significant, And Usually Unwelcome, Surprises, Such As Floods, Financial Crisis, Epileptic Seizures, Or Material Rupture, Are The Topics Of Extreme Events In Nature And Society. The Book, Authored By Foremost Experts In These Fields, Reveals Unifying And Distinguishing Features Of Extreme Events, Including Problems Of Understanding And Modelling Their Origin, Spatial And Temporal Extension, And Potential Impact. The Chapters Converge Towards The Difficult Problem Of Anticipation: Forecasting The Event And Proposing Measures To Moderate Or Prevent It. Extreme Events In Nature And Society Will Interest Not Only Specialists, But Also The General Reader Eager To Learn How The Multifaceted Field Of Extreme Events Can Be Viewed As A Coherent Whole. 3540286101......Page 1 Contents......Page 8 1.1 Why Study Xevents?......Page 17 1.2 What are Xevents? A First Approach......Page 18 1.3 What are Xevents? A Second Approach......Page 19 1.3.2 Dynamic Characterisation of Xevents......Page 20 1.3.4 Commonalities, Analogies, Universality......Page 21 1.3.5 Prediction, Anticipation and Management......Page 22 1.3.7 Building Models......Page 23 1.3.9 Risk......Page 24 1.4.2 Rationale......Page 25 1.4.3 The Articles......Page 26 1.5 Outlook: Research Programme......Page 33 References......Page 34 Part I: General Considerations......Page 35 2.1 The Representation of Extreme Events......Page 36 2.2 From Signs to Anticipation......Page 38 2.3 Descartes Rehabilitated......Page 40 2.4 Time, Clocks, Rhythms......Page 41 2.5 The Hybrid Solution......Page 43 2.6 Can a Computer Simulate Anticipation?......Page 50 2.7 A New Equilibrium......Page 51 2.8 A Holistic View......Page 55 References......Page 58 3.1 Introduction......Page 61 3.2 Statistical Extreme Value Theory......Page 62 3.3 Extremes in Continuous Time: Stochastic Processes, Random Fields......Page 66 3.4 Extremes and Statistical Mechanics......Page 75 3.5 Extremes and Dynamical Systems......Page 76 3.6 Mapping Singularities and Catastrophe Theory: How Can They Be Related to Xevents?......Page 77 References......Page 79 4.1 Introduction......Page 83 4.2 Prediction versus Predictability......Page 86 4.3 An Example: Turbulent Wind Gusts......Page 98 4.4 Conclusions......Page 104 References......Page 107 5.1 Introduction......Page 108 5.2 Exogenous and Endogenous Shocks in Social Networks......Page 110 5.3 Exogenous and Endogenous Shocks in Financial Markets......Page 122 5.4 Concluding Remarks......Page 127 References......Page 129 Part II: Scenarios......Page 133 6.1 Introduction......Page 134 6.2 Basic Mechanisms......Page 135 6.3 EEG and Epilepsy......Page 137 6.4 Nonlinear EEG Analysis......Page 139 6.5 Can Epileptic Seizures Be Anticipated?......Page 146 6.6 Can Epileptic Seizures Be Controlled?......Page 149 6.7 Conclusions......Page 151 References......Page 152 7.1 Introduction......Page 155 7.2 Extreme Events in the Geological Past......Page 156 7.3 Predictions and Forecasts on the Geological Timescale......Page 169 7.4 Research Perspectives......Page 171 References......Page 174 8.1 Introduction......Page 179 8.2 Atmospheric Scales......Page 180 8.3 Wind Extremes......Page 182 8.4 Precipitation Extremes......Page 191 8.5 Discussion......Page 196 References......Page 197 9.1 Introduction......Page 198 9.2 Gaussian Seas......Page 201 9.3 Refraction......Page 203 9.4 Refraction and Gaussian Seas......Page 206 9.5 Structure of the Density Fluctuations......Page 209 9.6 Implications for Wave Statistics......Page 213 9.7 Conclusions......Page 217 References......Page 218 10.1 Introduction......Page 220 10.2 The Search for Defects: Positrons in Solids......Page 221 10.4 Detection of Plastic Deformation......Page 226 10.5 Damage Prediction......Page 231 References......Page 239 11.1 Introduction......Page 242 11.2 General Opinion Dynamics......Page 243 11.3 Damage Spreading......Page 250 11.4 Discussion......Page 264 References......Page 265 12.1 Extreme Events in Complex Systems and Our Perception of Them......Page 267 12.2 A Short Survey of Scale-Free Networks......Page 269 12.3 Cameo Graphs......Page 270 12.4 How Extremists Determine the Structures of Scale-Free Graphs......Page 274 12.5 Spreading of Epidemics in Scale-Free Networks and Robustness Under Random Attack......Page 277 12.6 Conclusions and Outlook......Page 279 12.7 Appendix......Page 280 References......Page 281 Part III: Prevention, Precaution, and Avoidance......Page 283 13.1 Introduction......Page 284 13.2 Risk Management Example for Mountain Roads......Page 285 13.3 Physical Modelling of Alpine Surface Processes to Support Natural Hazard Forecasting......Page 291 13.4 Conclusions......Page 297 References......Page 299 14.1 Introduction......Page 301 14.2 Dynamic Model......Page 304 14.3 Static Model......Page 312 14.4 Discussion......Page 320 References......Page 323 15.1 Disasters as Extreme Events......Page 324 15.2 Examples of Causality Chains and Cascade Effects......Page 326 15.3 Modeling Causality Networks of Disaster Spreading......Page 339 15.4 Summary and Conclusions......Page 350 References......Page 351 D......Page 354 M......Page 355 S......Page 356 X......Page 357 Significant, and usually unwelcome, surpirises, such as floods, financial crisis, epileptic seizures, or material rupture, are the topics of Extreme Events in Nature and Society. The book, authored by foremost experts in these fields, reveals unifying and distinguishing features of extreme events, including problems of understanding and modelling their origin, spatial and temporal extension, and potential impact. The chapters converge towards the difficult problem of anticipation: forecasting the event and proposing measures to moderate or prevent it. Extreme Events in Nature and Society will interest not only specialists, but also the general reader eager to learn how the multifaceted field of extreme events can be viewed as a coherent whole. Presents unifying and distinguishing features of extreme events, including problems of understanding and modelling their origin, spatial and temporal extension, and potential impact. This book aims to help in the difficult problem of anticipation: forecasting the event and proposing measures to moderate or prevent it