Evaluating NATO Enlargement : From Cold War Victory to the Russia-Ukraine War

Mobilizing an interdisciplinary group of scholars and practitioners, this book reviews the history and consequences of NATOs post-Cold War enlargement into Central and Eastern Europe. It offers a nuanced discussion of the merits and drawbacks of NATO enlargement across the different actors involved and compares the results of the policy against potential alternatives that were not chosen. Particular attention is given to NATO enlargements influence on the course of U.S. foreign policy, democracy and security in Central and Eastern Europe, NATOs own development as a political and military institution, and relations with China and Russia (including the 2022 Russia-Ukraine War). Written for an engaged audience, the book is designed to appeal to students, researchers, and policymakers alike while offering both policy insights and avenues for future scholarship. James Goldgeier is Visiting Scholar at Stanford Universitys Center for International Security and Cooperation, Visiting Fellow at the Brookings Institution, and Professor of International Relations at the School of International Service at American University, where he served as Dean from 201117. Joshua R. Itzkowitz Shifrinson is Associate Professor with the School of Public Policy at the University of Maryland, Senior Fellow with the Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM), and Associate Editor of H-Diplos International Security Studies Forum (ISSF) Acknowledgements Contents List of Contributors List of Figures List of Tables 1 Evaluating NATO Enlargement: Scholarly Debates, Policy Implications, and Roads not Taken NATO Enlargement: Review and Reprise Framing the Debates Over Enlargement’s Legacy International Debates Domestic‐Level Considerations Organizational Impact The Role of Counterfactual Analysis and Inference Previewing the Volume Conclusion: Toward a Research Agenda References Part I Foreign Policy and Strategy Debates 2 Patterns of Continuity in NATO’s Long History A Permanent Alliance? The Ismay Assumptions The Forever Tsars The German Problem The USA as a European Power Growing Membership, Unchanging Mission New Members Non‐members Who’s in, Who’s Out? Why not Expand NATO’s Functions? Stabilizing Europe Dynamic Versus Static Plus ca Change, Plus C’est la Même Chose Challenging Inevitability A Higher Cost to Expansion, Imposed by Moscow An Increased European Defense Effort that Allowed the Americans to Go Home A US President Willing to Take Political and Geopolitical Risks A Different Germany Looking Forward References 3 NATO as a Political Alliance: Continuities and Legacies in the Enlargement Debates of the 1990s Adaptation and Preservation Going East A Liaison to the East The North Atlantic Cooperation Council The Partnership for Peace To Madrid Conclusion References 4 The NATO Enlargement Consensus and US Foreign Policy: Origins and Consequences The United States and NATO Enlargement: A Brief History Explaining the Trend Enlargement as a Byproduct of Unipolarity Expansion as Power Maximization Expansion as Leadership via Prestige and Credibility Enlargement as Socialization Enlargement as Domestic Politics Integrating the Results Consequences of Enlargement Prospective Advantages of Enlargement Prospective Disadvantages Second Order Effects Conclusion References 5 Myths and Realities of Putinism and NATO Expansion References Part II Great Power Relations 6 NATO Enlargement and US Grand Strategy: A Net Assessment The Case for a Post‐Cold War NATO Unhindered NATO Expansion NATO on Russia’s Border Russia’s Reaction An Alternative Path? Hazards of Continued NATO Enlargement Avoiding Threat Inflation Regarding Russia Transatlantic Trends NATO and the War in Ukraine References 7 NATO Enlargement: Evaluating Its Consequences in Russia The Difficulty of Testing the Effects of NATO Enlargement Organization of the Argument Objective Military and Foreign Policy Effects of NATO Enlargement on Russia Confounding External Systems Effects on Russia’s Relationship with the West Russian Perceptions About NATO: Nationalist Manipulation and Domestic Politics Russia’s 2022 Invasion of Ukraine Conclusions References 8 The Tragedy of US–Russian Relations: NATO Centrality and the Revisionists’ spiral Modeling the Spiral NATO Centrality vs. NATO Expansion Origin of Revisionism: Russia’s Response: 1990–1993 Cooperation‐as‐Revisionist Strategy The Road Toward Defection The Revisionists’ Spiral as a Greedy‐Security Dilemma Conclusion References 9 China Views NATO: Beijing’s Concerns About Transatlantic Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific Post-Cold War Relations Between China and NATO NATO’s 2022 Strategic Concept: China’s Concerns About the Globalization of the US Alliance System Edging Away from the West: China’s Global Security Initiative Conclusion References Part III European Security 10 Thank Goodness for NATO Enlargement The Arguments for and Against NATO Enlargement Assessing NATO Enlargement Fulfilling the Need for a Useful Hedge NATO Enlargement Does Not Prevent Mutually Beneficial Cooperation The Defensibility of NATO’s Northeastern Flank Concluding Thoughts References 11 Good for Democracy? Evidence from the 2004 NATO Expansion Introduction NATO’s Commitment to Democracy: How Much Does It Matter? NATO and Democratic Development Evaluating the Counterfactual Measuring Democratic Institutions Caveats and Considerations Quantitative Analysis Regression Analysis Results Discussion and Conclusions References 12 Ukraine’s Bid to Join NATO: Re-evaluating Enlargement in a New Strategic Context A Balancing Act The Bucharest Statement Euromaidan and the 2014 Invasion Drawing the Line Enhanced Assistance for Ukraine The Impact of NATO Assistance NATO Enlargement: Reframing the Debate Is NATO Enlargement to Blame for Russian Aggression? Looking Forward The Internal Dimension of Peace and Security What Does NATO Owe Its Partners? Conclusion References 13 Every Which Way But Loose: The United States, NATO Enlargement, European Strategic Autonomy and Fragmentation Consolidation (1989–1995): No Exit Instability Monopoly Casting a Wider Net European Reflex Supply and Demand Test Case Everything at Once (1996–2000) Closing Windows Monopoly II Dilution Fragmentation (2001–2016) Consolidation Complete Exploiting Divisions Burning Up the Bandwidth The Benefits of 2022 Hindsight References Part IV Organizational Politics and Debates 14 Assessing the Consequences of Enlargement for the NATO Military Alliance SHAPEing the New NATO The Long‐Term, NATO Enlargement, and Bi‐MNC Studies (1994–1999) Making Enlargement Work Consequences of Enlargement Conclusion References 15 In Peace and War: The Military Implications of NATO Enlargement Setting the Stage for the Enlargement Decision Former Adversaries Press to Join NATO as Allies Debate Whether to Enlarge Thinking Through the Military Implications of Enlargement The NATO Enlargement Study The Military Implications of the First Round of Enlargement The Downward Slope The Transition: Military Costs Begin to Outweigh Political Gains War in Europe Enlargement’s Military Legacy and Further NATO Enlargement Debates Conclusion References 16 NATO Enlargement and the Failure of the Cooperative Security Mindset NATO’s Rebranding Efforts: The Alluring Promise of Cooperative Security The Baltic States and Poland: From Model Behavior to Moral Hazard? Unresolved Grievances Deterrence Above All Else Fears Become Reality Collective Security vs. Collective Defense: NATO’s Partners Europeanization of Sweden’s and Finland’s Security and Defense Policies Sweden and Finland and the Deteriorating International Environment The War in Ukraine and Its Impact on the Scandinavian Neutrals What Will Finland and Sweden Bring to NATO? Conclusion References References Index "Mobilizing an interdisciplinary group of scholars and practitioners, this book reviews the history and consequences of NATO’s post-Cold War enlargement into Central and Eastern Europe. It offers a nuanced discussion of the merits and drawbacks of NATO enlargement across the different actors involved and compares the results of the policy against potential alternatives that were not chosen. Particular attention is given to NATO enlargement’s influence on the course of U.S. foreign policy, democracy and security in Central and Eastern Europe, NATO’s own development as a political and military institution, and relations with China and Russia (including the 2022 Russia-Ukraine War). Written for an engaged audience, the book is designed to appeal to students, researchers, and policymakers alike while offering both policy insights and avenues for future scholarship."--Fourni par l'éditeur