Envisioning Uncertain Futures: Scenarios As A Tool In Security, Privacy And Mobility Research (zukunft Und Forschung)

This book contains a collection of projects and scenarios dealing with new risks from emerging technologies, future peace keeping operations, and water distribution issues by combining analysis with dialogue. Special attention is paid to the methodology of narrative scenarios, and the role of imagination in the generation of these scenarios. Appearing as short stories, narrative scenarios include a great amount of explicit and implicit knowledge and they need story telling skills to become consistent, coherent as well as compelling and convincing pictures of the future. Contents Narrative Scenarios Public Security Future of Water Use Future of Peace Operations Emerging Technological Threats Target Groups Researchers, lectures and students of social and political sciences, management, communication and education with interest in foresight Practitioners from think tanks and consultancies, from risk and security research, technology foresight and technology assessment The Editors Roman Peperhove is head of the research Unit for Public Security at Freie Universität Berlin. Dr. Karlheinz Steinmüller is scientific director of a foresight consulting company and science fiction author. Prof. Dr. Hans-Liudger Dienel holds the professorship "Arbeitslehre/Technik und Partizipation" at the Technical University of Berlin and is Managing Director of the nexus Institute for Cooperation Management and Interdisciplinary Research GmbH Front Matter ....Pages I-XIV Introduction (Roman Peperhove)....Pages 15-21 Narrative Scenarios as an Analytical Instrument (Karlheinz Steinmüller)....Pages 23-35 Scenarios that tell a Story. Normative Narrative Scenarios – An Efficient Tool for Participative Innovation-Oriented Foresight (Robert Gaßner, Karlheinz Steinmüller)....Pages 37-48 Surprising Scenarios. Imagination as a Dimension of Foresight (Aharon Hauptman, Karlheinz Steinmüller)....Pages 49-68 Security 2025: Scenarios as an Instrument for Dialogue (Lars Gerhold, Karlheinz Steinmüller)....Pages 69-82 Didactical Functions of Dark and Bright Scenarios: Examples from the European Transport Industry (Massimo Moraglio, Hans-Liudger Dienel, Robin Kellermann)....Pages 83-103 The Use of SWOT Analysis for Future Scenarios: A Case Study of Privacy and Emerging Technologies (Liisa Luoto, Annika Lonkila)....Pages 105-131 The Future of Water Use: Scenarios for Water Management in Telangana - Strengthening Local Governance in the Minor Irrigation Sector (Angela Jain, Sascha Dannenberg)....Pages 133-141 The Future of Water Use: Construction of Scenarios in the Project (Sascha Dannenberg, Angela Jain)....Pages 143-153 Peace Operations 2025”: From Shaping Factors to Scenarios (Björn Theis, Stefan Köppe)....Pages 155-173 Anticipating New Security Threats: The FESTOS Project (Yair Sharan)....Pages 175-188 The Development of FESTOS Scenarios (Roman Peperhove)....Pages 189-204 The FESTOS Scenarios (Karlheinz Steinmüller)....Pages 205-236 Reflections on how to Improve Future Scenarios (Roman Peperhove)....Pages 237-256 Conclusion (Roman Peperhove)....Pages 257-262 Back Matter ....Pages 263-269 This book contains a collection of projects and scenarios dealing with new risks from emerging technologies, future peace keeping operations, and water distribution issues by combining analysis with dialogue. Special attention is paid to the methodology of narrative scenarios, and the role of imagination in the generation of these scenarios. Appearing as short stories, narrative scenarios include a great amount of explicit and implicit knowledge and they need story telling skills to become consistent, coherent as well as compelling and convincing pictures of the future. Contents Narrative Scenarios Public Security Future of Water Use Future of Peace Operations Emerging Technological Threats Target Groups Researchers, lectures and students of social and political sciences, management, communication and education with interest in foresight Practitioners from think tanks and consultancies, from risk and security research, technology foresight and technology assessment The Editors Roman Peperhove is head of the research Unit for Public Security at Freie Universität Berlin. Dr. Karlheinz Steinmüller is scientific director of a foresight consulting company and science fiction author. Prof. Dr. Hans-Liudger Dienel holds the professorship "Arbeitslehre/Technik und Partizipation" at the Technical University of Berlin and is Managing Director of the nexus Institute for Cooperation Management and Interdisciplinary Research GmbH