Energy myths and realities : bringing science to the energy policy debate

There are many misconceptions about the future of global energy often presented as fact by the media, politicians, business leaders, activists, and even scientists—wasting time and money and hampering the development of progressive energy policies. Energy Myths and Realities: Bringing Science to the Energy Policy Debate debunks the most common fallacies to make way for a constructive, scientific approach to the global energy challenge. When will the world run out of oil? Should nuclear energy be adopted on a larger scale? Are ethanol and wind power viable sources of energy for the future? Vaclav Smil advises the public to be wary of exaggerated claims and impossible promises. The global energy transition will be prolonged and expensive—and hinges on the development of an extensive new infrastructure. Established technologies and traditional energy sources are persistent and adaptable enough to see the world through that transition. Energy Myths and Realities brings... Myth: New Energy Sources And Technical Innovations Will Eliminate The Need For Fossil Fuels Within A Few Decades. Reality: Comprehensive Energy Transitions Take Several Generations. Myth: Carbon Sequestration Is The Solution To Global Climate Change. Reality: Because Of Its Costs, Technical Challenges, And Problems With Social Acceptance, Carbon Sequestration Will Not Be Able To Prevent Further Substantial Rise In Carbon Emissions. Myth: Electric Cars Will Replace Conventional Automobiles In The Near Future. Reality: Electric Cars Are Expensive, Their Adoption Rate Will Be Slow, And Internal Combustion Engines Will Dominate The Market For Decades To Come. These Are Just A Few Of The Misconceptions About The Future Of Global Energy Often Presented As Facts By The Media, Politicians, Business Leaders, Activists, And Even Scientists--wasting Time And Money And Hampering The Development Of Progressive Energy Policies. Energy Myths And Realities: Bringing Science To The Energy Policy Debate Debunks The Most Common Fallacies To Make Way For A Constructive, Scientific Approach To Addressing The Global Energy Challenge. When Will The World Run Out Of Oil? Should Nuclear Energy Be Adopted On A Larger Scale? Are Ethanol And Wind Power Viable Sources Of Energy For The Future? Vaclav Smil Advises The Public To Be Wary Of Exaggerated Claims And Impossible Promises. The Global Energy Transition Will Be Prolonged And Expensive And Hinges On The Development Of An Extensive New Infrastructure. Traditional Energy Sources And Established Energy Conversions Are Persistent And Adaptable Enough To See The World Through The Transition. Energy Myths And Realities Brings A Scientific Perspective To An Issue Often Dominated By Groundless Assertions, Unfounded Claims, And Uncritical Thinking. Before We Can Create Sound Energy Policies For The Future, We Must Renounce The Popular Myths That Cloud Our Judgment And Impede True Progress. Introduction: Lost Opportunities ; Persistent Myths ; Challenging The Myths -- Pt. I: Lessons From The Past : 1. The Future Belongs To Electric Cars ; Electric- Versus Gasoline-powered Cars ; Recent History Of Electric Cars ; Recent Electric Models ; Electric Cars And The Supply Of Electricity ; More Efficient Gasoline Engines -- 2. Nuclear Electricity Will Be Too Cheap To Meter : Peaceful Uses Of Nuclear Fusion ; Retreat From Nuclear Power ; Hope For Fast Breeder Reactors ; New Case For Nuclear Energy ; Successful Failure -- 3. Soft-energy Illusions : Advantages Of Soft Energy ; Soft Energy Today ; The Hypercar ; Other Soft-energy Dreams ; Soft Energy In China ; The Perfect Solution ; The Future Of Soft And Small Approaches. Pt. Ii: Myths In The Headlines : 4. Running Out: Peak Oil And Its Meaning : Predictions Of Peak Oil Production ; Untapped Resources ; Nonconventional Oil Reserves ; Production, Demand, And Prices ; Countering The Claims Of Peak-oilers -- 5. Sequestration Of Carbon Dioxide : Organic Approaches ; Technical Fixes ; The Energy Penalty On Sequestration -- 6. Liquid Fuels From Plants : Liquid Fuels For Transportation ; Corn-based Ethanol ; Sugar Cane-based Ethanol ; Impacts Of Ethanol Production ; Cellulosic Ethanol, A Huge New Source Of Energy ; Biofuels, An Inappropriate Solution -- 7. Electricity From Wind : Evolution Of Wind Power ; Estimated Potential Wind Power ; Key Constraints Of Wind Power ; Realizing The Potential Of Wind Power -- 8. The Pace Of Energy Transitions : Present Realities ; Past Transitions ; Why Energy Transitions Are Gradual ; The Repowering Challenge ; False Analogy -- Conclusion: Lessons And Policy Implications : Electric Vehicles ; Nuclear Power ; Soft-energy Conversions ; Peak Oil ; Carbon Sequestration ; Crop-based Ethanol ; Wind-powered Electricity Generation ; Energy Transitions ; A Quick Summation. Vaclav Smil. Includes Bibliographical References And Index. MYTH: New energy sources and technical innovations will eliminate the need for fossil fuels within a few decades. REALITY: Comprehensive energy transitions take several generations. MYTH: Carbon sequestration (that is, capturing CO2 emissions from the atmosphere and storing it) is the solution to global climate change. REALITY: Because of its costs, technical challenges, and problems with social acceptance, carbon sequestration will not be able to prevent further substantial rise in carbon emissions. MYTH: Electric cars will replace conventional cars in the near future. REALITY: Electric cars are expensive, their adoption rate will be slow, and internal combustion engines will dominate the market for decades to come. These are just a few of the misconceptions about the future of global energy often presented as facts in everyday political discourse, explains energy scientist Vaclav Smil. In his just-published Energy Myths and Realities: Bringing Science to the Energy Policy Debate (AEI Press, 2010), Smil warns that while the propagation of these incorrect facts appears harmless, it is in fact hampering the development of effective new energy policies and wasting time and money which could be better used in pursuit of a constructive, scientific approach to the global energy challenge. Among the many popular misconceptions about energy that Smil deconstructs: The world will soon run out of oil. Although the share of conventional oil in the global energy supply will gradually decrease, liquid hydrocarbons will remain a major source of energy for decades to come. Large-scale nuclear energy adoption will solve our energy challenge. No rational long-range energy plan should exclude the nuclear option, but past experience with commercial nuclear generation dictates a great deal of caution: We must take into account irrational risk perceptions, dangers of nuclear proliferation, and the need for selection and maintenance of permanent disposal sites for radioactive wastes. Ethanol will replace gasoline as a significant source of automotive fuel. Corn-derived ethanol can provide only a relatively small share of fuel needs. Dramatically scaling up ethanol production would cause widespread environmental degradation. Wind power will soon become the world’s leading source of electricity. While wind-powered electricity is a welcome option for large-scale commercial energy con-version, current short-term expectations significantly exaggerate its likely contribution. Natural wind variability, uneven distribution of windy regions, low power density of wind-driven generation, and lack of infrastructure make wind power an inefficient large-scale energy source. In Energy Myths and Realities, Vaclav Smil cautions the public to be wary of exaggerated claims and impossible promises. He explains that any global energy transition will be prolonged and expensive and will hinge on the development of an extensive new infrastructure. Smil adds that traditional energy sources and established energy con-versions are persistent and adaptable enough to see the world through that transition. In other words, before we can create sound energy policies for the future, the world must renounce the many popular myths that cloud our judgment and impede true progress. - Publisher. Introduction. Lost opportunities Persistent myths Challenging the myths Part one : Lessons from the past. 1. The future belongs to electric cars. Electric- versus gasoline-powered cars Recent history of electric cars Recent electric models Electric cars and the supply of electricity More efficient gasoline engines 2. Nuclear electricity will be too cheap to meter. Peaceful uses of nuclear fission Retreat from nuclear power Hope for fast Breeder reactors New case for nuclear energy Successful failure 3. Soft-energy illusions. Advantages of soft energy Soft energy today The hypercar Other soft-energy dreams Soft energy in China The "perfect" solution The future of soft and small approaches Part two : Myths in the headlines. 4. Running out : peak oil and its meaning. Predictions of peak oil production Untapped resources Nonconventional oil reserves Production, demand, and prices Countering the claims of peak-oilers 5. Sequestration of carbon dioxide. Organic approaches Technical fixes The energy penalty on sequestration 6. Liquid fuels from plants. Liquid fuels for transportation Corn-based ethanol Sugar cane-based ethanol Impacts of ethanol production Cellulosic ethanol, "a huge new source of energy" Biofuels, an inappropriate solution 7. Electricity from wind. Evolution of wind power Estimated potential of wind power Key constraints of wind power Realizing the potential of wind power 8. The pace of energy transitions. Present realities Past transitions Why energy transitions are gradual The repowering challenge False analogy Conclusion : Lessons and policy implications. Electric vehicles Nuclear power Soft-energy conversions Peak oil Carbon sequestration Crop-based ethanol Wind-powered electricity generation Energy transitions A quick summation About the author There are many misconceptions about the future of global energy often presented as fact by the media, politicians, business leaders, activists, and even scientistswasting time and money and hampering the development of progressive energy policies. Energy Myths and Bringing Science to the Energy Policy Debate debunks the most common fallacies to make way for a constructive, scientific approach to the global energy challenge. When will the world run out of oil? Should nuclear energy be adopted on a larger scale? Are ethanol and wind power viable sources of energy for the future? Vaclav Smil advises the public to be wary of exaggerated claims and impossible promises. The global energy transition will be prolonged and expensiveand hinges on the development of an extensive new infrastructure. Established technologies and traditional energy sources are persistent and adaptable enough to see the world through that transition. Energy Myths and Realities brings a scientific perspective to an issue often dominated by groundless assertions, unfounded claims, and uncritical thinking. Before we can create sound energy policies for the future, we must renounce the popular myths that cloud our judgment and impede true progress. There are many misconceptions about the future of global energy often presented as fact by the media, politicians, business leaders, activists, and even scientists_wasting time and money and hampering the development of progressive energy policies. Energy Myths and Realities debunks the most common fallacies to make way for a constructive, scientific approach to the global energy challenge