Energy in Australia: Peak Oil, Solar Power, and Asia’s Economic Growth (SpringerBriefs in Energy)

With rapidly declining costs and seemingly unlimited sunshine, the choice of solar in Australia seems obvious. Yet despite its many advantages, homes with solar remain completely dependent on the electricity grid for reliable supply, which in Australia implies mostly coal-fired generation. Indeed, even countries that have invested heavily in solar, such as Spain and Germany, have been unable to deflect the trajectory of fossil fuel dependence. The reasons for this apparent paradox are varied, and this book provides a deeper and more nuanced understanding of the practical applications of photovoltaics (PV) in modern electricity systems. While the conventional life-cycle assessment (LCA) boundaries as prescribed by the IEA-PVPS provide a consistent methodology for comparing evolving PV technologies, the narrow boundaries exclude many critical downstream energy costs. Similarly, simple cost comparisons of PV versus conventional power sources overlook the significant economic and energy costs of intermittency and grid integration. Yet distributed storage, which could provide potentially valuable network support, is frequently given a low priority by advocates of solar. Treating PV as an extension of, rather than as a substitute for, the fossil fuel enterprise enables a more productive discussion of PV’s potential role in electricity generation. The sunburnt country of Australia, which has a modern electricity system, is an ideal case study for exploring the potential of solar PV. With a focus on rooftop solar, energy storage, grid integration, and electricity system issues, __**Energy in Australia**__ offers valuable insights into the practical challenges of solar power. Although many national economies are already confronting a downward trend in energy return on investment (EROI) of oil and gas from both conventional and unconventional sources, the large-scale deployment of low-emission energy sources that lie below a critical minimum EROI threshold may ultimately prove counter-productive. Preface 5 Acknowledgment 8 Contents 9 1 Introduction: One Million Solar Systems 12 References 13 2 Quarry Australia: Building Australia on Coal 14 2.1 Energy Supply 1965–2013: Business as Usual 14 2.2 Coal: Australia’s Saviour or Curse? 14 References 21 3 Towards Optimized Complexity: Integrating Intermittency 22 3.1 Josep’h Tainter’s Complexity Spiral 22 3.2 100 % Renewable Energy Plans 23 3.3 Intermittency Managed Through Complexity and Exploiting Synergies 23 3.4 Reduced Load Factor of Electricity Systems with PV 24 3.5 The Illusion of Synergies 26 3.6 Redefining Baseload 27 3.7 The Synchronous Australian National Electricity Market 28 3.8 System Inertia 29 3.9 Non-Synchronous Generation 29 3.10 Offloading or Heat Rate Losses of Conventional Thermal Generation 30 3.11 Retaining Fossil Fuel Plant for Reliable Capacity 30 3.12 Altered Voltage Profile Due to Distributed Solar PV 31 3.13 Smart Grids and Demand Management 32 3.14 Energy Efficiency 34 3.15 Case Study: Micro-case of Rebound, the Efficiency of Melbourne’s Household Space Heating 35 3.16 Case Study: Denmark’s High Wind Power Penetration 35 3.17 Case Study: Germany’s High Solar PV Penetration 36 3.18 Intermittent Generation Locking in Path Dependence 37 3.19 Intermittent Generation Competing in the Same Low-Emission Space 37 3.20 Reduction in Labour Productivity 39 References 39 4 Electricity Networks: Managing Peak Demand 42 4.1 Defining Congestion 42 4.2 Congestion in Electricity Networks 43 4.3 Measuring Peak Demand Events: The Load Duration Chart 44 4.4 Comparison of Load Duration Curve with Other ProductsServices 45 4.5 Benefit of Built-In Storage of the Gas Network 45 4.6 Availability Factor to Meet Reliability Standards 46 4.7 Availability Versus Capacity Factor 47 4.8 Air Conditioning Driving Rising Peak Demand 49 4.9 Declining Productivity of Network Assets 50 4.10 Embedded Solar PV and Resulting Peak Loads 50 4.11 Implications for Household Dependence on the Electricity Network 52 4.12 Battery Storage to Improve PV Capacity Credit 53 4.13 Household PV with Storage to Improve Network Utilization 53 4.14 Network Support Summary 54 References 55 5 EROI of Solar PV 56 5.1 Life-Cycle Assessments 56 5.2 Energy Return on Investment 56 5.3 LCAs are Defined in Units of Primary Energy 57 5.4 Early EROI Studies 58 5.5 Reliance on Process Analysis to Ascertain EROI 58 5.6 Input–Output Analysis and Hybrid Analysis 59 5.7 Variance in Process-Based Solar LCAs 59 5.8 Conventional LCAs Ignore Intermittency 59 5.9 Standard Methodological Guidelines Use Narrow Boundaries 60 5.10 Widened Downstream Boundaries Dramatically Alter Resulting EROI 60 5.11 EROI Based on Narrow Boundaries Overstates Actual Value of PV 61 5.12 Comparison of PV Revolution with Steam and Industrial Revolution 62 5.13 Front-Loading of Embodied Energy Impairs Doubling Time 62 5.14 Case Study: Solar PV Supplementing Coal-Fired Generation to Reduce Emissions 64 5.15 Case Study: Wind and Solar Reducing Diesel Consumption in Isolated Grid 66 5.16 Case Study: Off-Grid Solar PV with Batteries 69 5.17 Dynamic EROI of Off-Grid System 70 5.18 EROI of Concentrated Solar Thermal Systems 71 5.19 Additional Transmission Infrastructure for CSP 72 5.20 Case Study: Materials Requirements for a Large-Scale CST Roll-Out 72 5.21 Case Study: High-Penetration Household Solar PV 74 References 77 6 Driving Down Emissions: The Role of Carbon Pricing 81 6.1 Carbon Pricing as the Dominant Policy Tool to Reduce Emissions 81 6.2 Carbon Pricing as a Proxy for the “Soft Energy Path” 82 6.3 Carbon Pricing Standard Model 82 6.4 Marginal Abatement Versus Deep Abatement 83 6.5 Purpose of Pigovian Taxes 84 6.6 The US Sulphur Dioxide Scheme as a Model for Emission Trading Schemes 85 6.7 Renewable Energy Targets and Carbon Pricing may Conflict 86 6.8 Carbon Price Targets a Single Metric but Effects are Multi-Faceted 86 6.9 Embodied Energy Costs of PV 87 6.10 Carbon Price as an Innovation Driver 87 6.11 Lessons from a Leviathan Tax 88 6.12 Lessons from the Politics of Carbon Pricing of Australia 89 6.13 Improving Human Welfare will Require More Energy 90 6.14 Case Study: Estimating the Abatement Cost of Solar PV 91 6.15 Incorporating the Projected Lifetime into Abatement Cost 92 References 93 Conclusion 96 Index 98 With rapidly declining costs and seemingly unlimited sunshine, the choice of solar in Australia seems obvious. Yet despite its many advantages, homes with solar remain completely dependent on the electricity grid for reliable supply, which in Australia implies mostly coal-fired generation. Indeed, even countries that have invested heavily in solar, such as Spain and Germany, have been unable to deflect the trajectory of fossil fuel dependence. The reasons for this apparent paradox are varied, and this book provides a deeper and more nuanced understanding of the practical applications of photovoltaics (PV) in modern electricity systems. While the conventional life-cycle assessment (LCA) boundaries as prescribed by the IEA-PVPS provide a consistent methodology for comparing evolving PV technologies, the narrow boundaries exclude many critical downstream energy costs. Similarly, simple cost comparisons of PV versus conventional power sources overlook the significant economic and energy costs of intermittency and grid integration. Yet distributed storage, which could provide potentially valuable network support, is frequently given a low priority by advocates of solar. Treating PV as an extension of, rather than as a substitute for, the fossil fuel enterprise enables a more productive discussion of PVs potential role in electricity generation. The sunburnt country of Australia, which has a modern electricity system, is an ideal case study for exploring the potential of solar PV. With a focus on rooftop solar, energy storage, grid integration, and electricity system issues, Energy in Australia offers valuable insights into the practical challenges of solar power. Although many national economies are already confronting a downward trend in energy return on investment (EROI) of oil and gas from both conventional and unconventional sources, the large-scale deployment of low-emission energy sources that lie below a critical minimum EROI threshold may ultimately prove coun ter-productive Front Matter....Pages i-xiii Introduction: One Million Solar Systems....Pages 1-2 Quarry Australia: Building Australia on Coal....Pages 3-10 Towards Optimized Complexity: Integrating Intermittency....Pages 11-30 Electricity Networks: Managing Peak Demand....Pages 31-44 EROI of Solar PV....Pages 45-69 Driving Down Emissions: The Role of Carbon Pricing....Pages 71-85 Back Matter....Pages 87-91