Endgame for the West in Afghanistan? : explaining the decline in support for the war in Afghanistan in the United States, Great Britain, Canada, Australia, France and Germany

Explaining the decline in support for the war in Afghanistan in the United States, great Britain, Canada, Australia, France and Germany Cover......Page 1 The Letort Papers......Page 2 Foreword......Page 5 About The Author......Page 6 Summary......Page 7 Introduction......Page 9 The Good War? American Public Opinion And The War In Afghanistan......Page 16 Casualties.......Page 19 Figure 2. U.S. Public Opinion And The War In Afghanistan, 2006-09.......Page 20 Figure 4. U.S. Public Support For The War And Fatalities, 2006-07.......Page 21 Figure 5. U.S. Public Support For The War And Fatalities, 2008-09.......Page 22 Elite Consensus......Page 23 Iraq War Contagion......Page 29 Figure 6. U.S. Retrospective Opinion On The War In Afghanistan, 2004-09.......Page 30 Figure 7. U.S. Retrospective Opinion On The War In Iraq, 2006-09.......Page 31 The “ Deputy Sheriff”—Australian Public Opinion And The Afghan War......Page 40 Casualties Plus Politics.......Page 44 Afghanistan-specific Theories.......Page 50 Back On Afghanistan’s Plains—public Support For The Afghan War In Britain......Page 57 Casualties.......Page 60 Figure 8. UK Public Opinion And The War In Afghanistan, 2002-09.......Page 61 Figure 9. UK Public Opinion And The War In Afghanistan, 2006-09.......Page 62 Figure 11. UK Support For The War And Fatalities, 2006-09.......Page 63 Casualties Plus Politics.......Page 64 Afghanistan-specific Theories.......Page 72 Farewell To The Blue Helmets—Canadian Public Opinion On Afghanistan......Page 78 Casualties.......Page 81 Figure 13. Canadian Public Opinion And The War In Afghanistan, 2006-09.......Page 82 Figure 14. Canadian Support For The War And Fatalities, 2006-09.......Page 83 Casualties Plus Politics.......Page 84 Afghanistan-specific Theories.......Page 89 Conclusion.......Page 92 Sarkozy’s War—france Takes To The Frontline......Page 93 Casualties.......Page 97 Figure 15. French Public Opinion And The War In Afghanistan, 2001-09.......Page 98 Casualties Plus Politics.......Page 99 Afghanistan-specific Theories.......Page 104 Still Struggling With The Guilt Of The Past: Germany’s Afghan Agonies......Page 113 Casualties.......Page 118 Figure 18. German Public Opinion And The War In Afghanistan, 2002-09.......Page 119 Casualties Plus Politics.......Page 120 Afghanistan-specific Theories.......Page 125 Conclusion.......Page 133 Summary......Page 134 Figure 19. Key Factors Across All Cases.......Page 136 Bibliography......Page 138 Endnotes......Page 150 "Domestic support for the war is often mentioned as one of the key battlegrounds of the Afghan conflict. A variety of explanations have been put forward in the media and in the political realm to explain why this war, which once commanded overwhelming popular support in almost all participating countries, is now opposed by a majority, even in the United States itself. Casualties, lack of equitable multilateral burden sharing, confused and shifting rationales on the part of the political leadership for the war and a 'contagion' effect from the unpopularity of the Iraq war have all been cited at one time or another. This monograph contends that while most of these factors have played a role to some extent, the main reason why the Afghan war has lost support among the public of the main participating countries is the combination of mounting casualties along with the increasing perception that the effort on the ground is failing. This conclusion is drawn from in-depth case studies of the United States and five of its key allies--the United Kingdom (UK), France, Germany, Canada, and Australia. These countries include the top three troop contributing nations to the Allied effort in Afghanistan (the United States, the UK, and Germany), and the three who have suffered the heaviest casualties (the United States, the UK, and Canada). Moreover, these nations vary greatly in terms of their pre-September 11, 2001 (9/11) relations with the United States, historical tradition of, and public tolerance towards the use of force overseas, level of commitment to the Afghan war, and rhetorical strategies chosen by their political leadership to justify the deployment to their peoples. The fact that a common thread--domestic support falls as the course of the war deteriorates--is still discernible is remarkable in light of the diversity of the cases studied." Analyses Of The War In Afghanistan Frequently Mention The Declining Or Shaky Domestic Support For The Conflict In The United States And Among Several U.s. Allies. This Paper Dates The Beginning Of This Decline Back To The Resurgence Of The Taliban In 2005-06 And Suggests That The Deteriorating Course Of The War On The Ground In Afghanistan Itself Along With Mounting Casualties Is The Key Reason Behind This Drop In Domestic Support For The War. Introduction -- The Good War? : American Public Opinion And The War In Afghanistan -- Casualties -- Casualties Plus Politics -- Afghan-specific Explanations -- The Deputy Sheriff : Australian Public Opinion And The Afghan War -- Casualties -- Casualties Plus Politics -- Afghanistan-specific Theories -- Back On Afghanistan's Plains : Public Support For The Afghan War In Britain -- Casualties -- Casualties Plus Politics -- Afghan-specific Theories -- Farewell To The Blue Helmets : Canadian Public Opinion On Afghanistan -- Casualties -- Casualties Plus Politics -- Afghanistan-specific Theories -- Conclusion -- Sarkozy's War : France Takes To The Frontline -- Casualties -- Casualties Plus Politics -- Afghanistan-specific Theories -- Still Struggling With The Guilt Of The Past : Germany's Afghan Agonies -- Casualties -- Casualties Plus Politics -- Afghanistan-specific Theories -- Conclusion -- Summary. Charles A. Miller. June 2010. Includes Bibliographical References (p. 130-166). Also Available Online In Pdf Format From Strategic Studies Institute (ssi) Web Site. Adobe Acrobat Reader Required. Domestic public opinion is frequently and correctly described as a crucial battlefront in the war in Afghanistan. Commentary by media and political figures currently notes not only the falling support for the war in the United States but also in many of its key allies in Europe and elsewhere, making it all the more difficult for the Obama administration to secure the help it believes it needs to bring the war to a successful conclusion. This study is an extensive examination of the determinants of domestic support for and opposition to the war in Afghanistan in the United States and in five of its key allies--the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Canada, and Australia. Tracing the trajectory of public opinion on the war from the original invasion in 2001 to the fall of 2009, this paper concludes that the combination of mounting casualties with a declining belief that the war could be won by the Coalition is the key factor driving the drop in support. Other factors, such as the deployment of numerous and shifting rationales by the political leadership in various countries, and the breakdown of elite consensus have played important but secondary roles in this process.