Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal, and Political Perspectives (Contributions to Conflict Management, Peace Economics and Development)

"Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal, and Political Perspectives" brings together recent, cutting-edge research on economic factors affecting peace and war. This important area of continuing research was the focus of an international conference held at the University of Sydney in June 2009 and these chapters are partly drawn from among the best contributions to that meeting. The book weaves together threads from a number of themes in current research including new theoretical perspectives on the economic foundations of peace, violence and war within countries, connections between international trade and inter-state conflict, and the role of legal/institutional factors in international and internal conflict. Through a focused exploration of these related topics emerge areas of scholarly consensus as well as areas of continued debate. International in scope, it is the only book to explicitly bring together economic, legal and political scholarship to focus on the problem of conflict. It employs a range of modern social science analytical methods, including qualitative cases, econometrics, and game-theoretic models, to rigorously advance understanding of conflict within and between countries. Front cover 1 Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal, and Political Perspectives 3 Copyright page 4 Contents 5 List of contributors 9 Foreword 11 Acknowledgments 13 Chapter 1. Introduction 15 Overview of the book 17 Part I: Markets and Force: Foundational Aspects of the Relationship between Economics and Violence within and Between States 25 Chapter 2. A method to compute a peace gross world product by country and by economic sector 27 Introduction 28 The process for calculating a peace gross world product 28 The bottom-line number 30 Populating the Spreadsheet 31 Adding state-specific data on the cost of violence to fine-tune the spreadsheet 37 Calculating the cost savings of peace for economic sectors 39 Conclusion 41 Notes 42 Acknowledgments 43 References 44 Chapter 3. Privatising military prisons: The case of the United States 45 Introduction 46 The problem: Insufficient supply of custodial personnel to rehabilitate prisoners 47 Where the private sector could be involved 50 The classic HSV model 51 Innovation: Adaptation of the HSV model 53 Analysis: Can the Governance regime achieve intended quality outcomes? 53 Results compared with classical HSV 58 Implications: The role of private sector contractors 61 Conclusion 61 Notes 62 References 64 Chapter 4. Arms export controls and the proliferation of military technology 67 Introduction 68 Framing the choices countries face when obtaining weapons 69 Making the choice about how or whether to obtain weapons 70 Implications for suppliers 72 Implications for innovation 73 Electronic warfare self-protection: US export control and Australian indigenous innovation 73 Performance, innovation and control in electronic warfare 74 The United States controls radar warning technology 76 Implications of denying Australian access to the technology 77 Australia’s response: the ALR-2002 radar warning receiver 77 Conclusion 80 References 81 Part II: Internal Conflict: Economic Aspects of Outbreak, Endurance, and Recovery from Large-Scale Intra-State Violence 83 Chapter 5. Probing the roles of governance and greed in civil strife in West Africa 85 Introduction 87 Liberia: first civil war 1989-1996 and second civil war 1999-2003 89 Sierra Leone: civil war 1991-2002 91 Ivory Coast: civil war 2002-present 95 Ghana: coups but no civil war 97 Conclusion 98 References 99 Chapter 6. Terrorism and violent internal conflict in post-soeharto Indonesia: Beyond the Jihadi prism of analysis 103 Introduction 104 The relationship between violent internal conflict and terrorism: a synthesised model 105 Case studies 109 Terrorism in Aceh4 109 Causal factors of terrorism in aceh: Societal factors 110 Causal factors of terrorism in Aceh: Organisational factors 111 GAM ends its terrorist campaign 112 Terrorism in Papua6 113 Causal factors of terrorism in Papua: Societal factors 113 Causes of terrorism in Papua: Organisational factors 115 Conclusion 116 Notes 117 References 118 Chapter 7. Great expectations: Prospect theory and oil price volatility in Iran 121 Introduction 122 Rentier state: Valuable to a point 124 Prospect theory: Expectations are everything 124 2009 Elections 128 Conclusion 133 Notes 133 Acknowledgments 134 References 134 Chapter 8. Does fiscal policy differ between successful and unsuccessful post-conflict transitions? Lessons from African Civil Wars 137 Introduction 138 Some preliminary empirical regularities 141 Looking beyond averages: evidence from probit analysis 144 Dynamic comparisons 147 Conclusions 152 Notes 154 Acknowledgments 154 References 155 Appendix. Variables definition 156 Chapter 9. The Collier challenge: how can reliable transitional financing systems be created in ’barely functional’ states? 161 Introduction 162 Fundamentals of rebuilding fragile states 163 Supporting governance in fragile states: the independent service authority model 165 Compacts to produce shared governance between national and international stakeholders 167 How security might be delivered in fragile states 168 Buttressing 169 Comparing the model with the RAMSI 171 How RAMSI won agreement 173 Has RAMSI overstayed its welcome? 174 Conclusion 176 Notes 177 References 178 Part III: Trade, Law, Institutions and International Conflict: New Perspectives on Enduring Debates 181 Chapter 10. Peace through trade? Econophoria in Northeast Asia 183 Introduction 184 Tracing the origins of liberal thought on trade and peace 185 Unpacking the links between development, democracy and peace 186 How commerce spreads peace: The case of Northeast Asia 190 Conclusion: Rationalisation and socialisation 195 Note 197 References 197 Chapter 11. Regional integration and militarised interstate disputes: An empirical analysis 199 Introduction 200 How regional integration produces peace 201 How RIAs form the Kantian peace tripod 202 Trade, RIAs and conflict1: The first leg of the tripod 202 Democratic peace and RIAs: The second leg of the tripod 203 International organisation, conflict and RIAs: the third leg 203 Combined effect of the tripod legs in producing peace 204 Research design 205 Analysis and findings 208 Conclusion 211 Notes 211 Acknowledgments 213 References 213 Appendix. Full names of regional integrations used in this study 217 Chapter 12. Economic integration, economic signalling and the problem of economic crises 219 Introduction 220 What are the expectations of economic costly signalling theory? 221 What is the connection between economic integration, economic crises and conflict? 223 Can states signal effectively during economic crises? 229 Conclusion 232 Notes 233 Acknowledgments 234 References 234 Chapter 13. Terrorism, targeted economic sanctions and inadequate due process: the case of the Security Council’s 1267 sanctions regime 239 Introduction 240 The 1267 sanctions regime targeting terrorism 242 Options and initiatives to ensure due process for sanction targets 246 The lack of political will for procedural reform 250 Conclusion 252 Post scriptum 253 References 254 Chapter 14. Compensation for civilian casualties in armed conflicts and theory of liability 257 Introduction 258 Protecting civilians in international humanitarian law 259 Civilian compensation in international humanitarian law 260 The US foreign claims system and its limits 261 Cases of combat exclusion under the foreign claims system 262 Justifying combat exclusion 263 Campaign for unrestricted compensation 265 Theory of liability and civilian victims in armed conflict 265 Concluding remarks 270 References 271 Part IV: Conclusions 275 Chapter 15. Economic factors in peace and war: A discussion 277 Economics, politics, and conflict 281 Internal conflict 285 International conflict 286 The economic turn in international conflict research: Skeptical comments and some evidence 288 Notes 294 References 295 About the authors 297 Economies Of War And Peace: Economic, Legal, And Political Perspectives Brings Together Recent, Cutting-edge Research On Economic Factors Affecting Peace And War. This Important Area Of Continuing Research Was The Focus Of An International Conference Held At The University Of Sydney In June 2009 And These Chapters Are Partly Drawn From Among The Best Contributions To That Meeting. The Book Weaves Together Threads From A Number Of Themes In Current Research Including New Theoretical Perspectives On The Economic Foundations Of Peace, Violence And War Within Countries, Connections Between International Trade And Inter-state Conflict, And The Role Of Legal/institutional Factors In International And Internal Conflict. Through A Focused Exploration Of These Related Topics Emerge Areas Of Scholarly Consensus As Well As Areas Of Continued Debate. International In Scope, It Is The Only Book To Explicitly Bring Together Economic, Legal And Political Scholarship To Focus On The Problem Of Conflict. It Employs A Range Of Modern Social Science Analytical Methods, Including Qualitative Cases, Econometrics, And Game-theoretic Models, To Rigorously Advance Understanding Of Conflict Within And Between Countries. Introduction / Benjamin E. Goldsmith And Jurgen Brauer -- A Method To Compute A Peace Gross World Product By Country And By Economic Sector / Jurgen Brauer And John Tepper Marlin -- Privatising Military Prisons: The Case Of The United States / Aditya Agrawal And Keiran Sharpe -- Arms Export Controls And The Proliferation Of Military Technology / Peter Hall, Robert Wylie -- Probing The Roles Of Governance And Greed In Civil Strife In West Africa / Helen Ware And Dele Ogunmola -- Terrorism And Violent Internal Conflict In Post-soeharto Indonesia: Beyond The Jihadi Prism Of Analysis / Leanne Piggott -- Great Expectations: Prospect Theory And Oil Price Volatility In Iran / Jennifer Hunt -- Does Fiscal Policy Differ Between Successful And Unsuccessful Post-conflict Transitions? Lessons From African Civil Wars / Fabrizio Carmignani And Adrian Gauci -- The Collier Challenge: How Can Reliable Transitional Financing Systems Be Created In 'barely Functional' States? / Andrew Ladley And Jessie Williams -- Peace Through Trade? Econophoria In Northeast Asia / Brendan Howe -- Regional Integration And Militarised Interstate Disputes: An Empirical Analysis / Golam Robbani -- Economic Integration, Economic Signalling And The Problem Of Economic Crises / Jedidiah Royal -- Terrorism, Targeted Economic Sanctions And Inadequate Due Process: The Case Of The Security Council's 1267 Sanctions Regime / Christopher Michaelsen -- Compensation For Civilian Casualties In Armed Conflicts And Theory Of Liability / Minako Ichikawa Smart -- Economic Factors In Peace And War: A Discussion / Benjamin E. Goldsmith. Edited By Benjamin E. Goldsmith, Jurgen Brauer. Includes Bibliographical References And Indexes.