Economics, Economists and Expectations: From Microfoundations to Macroapplications (Routledge Studies in the History of Economics, 65)

The concept of rational expectations has played a hugely important role in economics over the years. Dealing with the origins and development of modern approaches to expectations in micro and macroeconomics, this book makes use of primary sources and previously unpublished material from such figures as Hicks, Hawtrey and Hart. The accounts of the 'founding fathers' of the models themselves are also presented here for the first time. The authors trace the development of different approaches to expectations from the likes of Hayek, Morgenstern, and Coase right up to more modern theorists such as Friedman, Patinkin, Phelps and Lucas. The startling conclusion that there was no 'Rational Expectations Revolution' is articulated, supported and defended with impressive clarity and authority. A necessity for economists across the world, this book will deserve its place upon many an academic bookshelf. Book Cover 1 Title 4 Contents 5 Preface 11 Acknowledgments 15 Abbreviations 16 Introduction 18 From Hayek to Vernon Smith: prices, the cobweb, and game theory 21 The Hart Research Agenda: information, anticipation, and the firm 39 Expectations research projects: from Illinois to Carnegie Tech 51 Muth, Mills, and Tinbergen 78 December 1959 and its aftermath 89 Patinkin, expectations, and Chicago 116 Expectations and the monetarist counter-revolution 130 Overview and conclusions 150 Bibliography 157 Index 173 Dealing with the origins and development of modern approaches to expectations in micro and macroeconomics, this work makes use of primary sources and previously unpublished material from such figures as Hicks, Hawtrey and Hart