Economic Liberalization and Authoritarianism: A Comparative Political Economy of Egypt, Tunisia, Jordan, and Morocco, 1950-2011 (Politik und Gesellschaft des Nahen Ostens)

Contrary to other world regions, political regimes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) remain largely authoritarian. While the search for explanations is still ongoing, Christian Neugebauer draws attention to a hitherto underresearched factor: economic liberalization. Being part of a global shift from state-led development towards structural adjustment in the economy, these policies also deeply affected the countries of the MENA region. This makes the resilience of authoritarianism in the region all the more puzzling, as a large part of the scientific community expected economic liberalization to undermine authoritarian regimes. Neugebauer strives to solve the puzzle with a comparative case study that covers four countries (Egypt, Tunisia, Jordan, and Morocco) and their political regimes, from independence in the 1950s to the Arab Spring in 2011. He shows that two specific policies of economic liberalization might in fact have been relevant for regime stability: consumer-price liberalization and privatization. About the author Christian Neugebauer was a PhD candidate and lecturer in political economy of the Middle East and North Africa at the Center for Near and Middle Eastern Studies (CNMS), University of Marburg, Germany. He currently works as a regional expert (Middle East, North Africa, and Turkey) for an institution of the private economy. Acknowledgements Contents Abbreviations List of Figures List of Tables 1 Introduction 1.1 Setting the Stage: Economic Liberalization and Authoritarianism in Resource-Poor Countries of the MENA Region 1.2 Research Gaps Addressed by the Study 1.3 Outline of the Study and Introductory Remarks 1.4 How to Read this Book 2 Key Terms 2.1 Economic Liberalization, Macroeconomic Stabilization, Structural Adjustment 2.2 Political System, State, Regime, Government 2.3 Authoritarianism, Authoritarian Regime, Neopatrimonialism 2.4 Regime Stability, Economic and Political Stabilization 2.5 Resource Endowment 3 Theory and State of the Art 3.1 Stability of Authoritarian Regimes 3.1.1 Political Factors 3.1.2 Economic Factors: Structural Heterogeneity and Rent 3.1.3 Social Factors: Mobilization; Class Relations; and Sociocultural Structures 3.1.4 International Factors: External Actors and the Regional Context 3.1.5 Summary: Factors Potentially Responsible for the Stability of Authoritarian Regimes 3.2 Effects of Economic Liberalization 3.2.1 Economic Effects: State Budget; International Accounts; and Economic Growth 3.2.2 International Effects: Foreign Loans and Reduction of Debt 3.2.3 Socioeconomic Effects: Socioeconomic Development and its Transmission to Social Groups and Classes 3.2.4 Political Effects: Social Class Relations and Relative Strength of the State 3.2.5 Summary: Economic; International; Socioeconomic; and Political Effects of Economic Liberalization 4 Theoretical Model and Hypotheses 4.1 Theoretical Model 4.2 Hypotheses on Economic Liberalization and the Stability of Authoritarian Regimes 4.2.1 ``Integrated Hypotheses'' on the Link between Economic Liberalization and the Stability of Authoritarian Regimes via Economic Stabilization 4.2.2 ``Integrated Hypotheses'' on the Link between Economic Liberalization and the Stability of Authoritarian Regimes via Political Stabilization 5 Epistemology, Methodology, Methods 5.1 Epistemology and Methodology 5.2 Methods 5.2.1 Justification and Description of the Methods 5.2.2 Operationalization of the Main Variables 5.2.3 Case Selection 5.2.4 Sources 5.2.5 Procedure in the Empirical Part 6 Empirical Analysis—Economic Liberalization and the Stability of Authoritarian Regimes in Resource-poor Countries of the MENA Region: Egypt, Tunisia, Jordan, and Morocco, 1950–2011 6.1 Roots and Course of Economic Liberalization 6.1.1 Immediate Postindependence Period 6.1.2 State-led Development 6.1.3 Infitah 6.1.4 Stabilization and Structural Adjustment 6.1.5 Reform Periods and Economic-liberalization Policies 6.2 Economic Stabilization 6.2.1 State Budget and International Accounts 6.2.2 Economic Growth and Socioeconomic Development 6.2.3 Test of ``Integrated Hypotheses'' in a MSSD (Periods 1965–1986, 1993–2004, 2005–2010) 6.2.4 Preliminary Conclusion: the Effect of Economic Liberalization on Regime Stability via Economic Stabilization 6.3 Political Stabilization 6.3.1 Politics: Centralization of Power; Narrowing of Regime Coalitions; and Growing Influence of Private Business Actors 6.3.2 Policies: Struggling for Legitimacy; and Controlling Economic Surplus 6.3.3 Test of ``Integrated Hypotheses'' in a MSSD (Periods 1965–1986, 1993–2004, 2005–2010) 6.3.4 Preliminary Conclusion: the Effect of Economic Liberalization on Regime Stability Via Political Stabilization 7 Conclusion 7.1 The Effect of Economic Liberalization on the Stability of Resource-Poor Authoritarian Regimes: Egypt, Tunisia, Jordan, and Morocco, 1950–2011 7.2 Contributions to the State of the Art 7.3 Avenues for Further Research 8 Appendix: Hypotheses Tables Bibliography