Economic Forecasting

Economic Forecasting deals with macroeconomic forecasts from a global point of view. The focus is first on a large range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting. In addition, the book addresses the main issues surrounding the use of forecasts (accuracy, communication challenges) and their policy implications. A synthetic overview of economic data and forecasting institutions is also provided. [economic Forecasting] Provides A Comprehensive Overview Of Macroeconomic Forecasting. It Focuses First On A Large Range Of Theories As Well As Empirical Techniques: Business Cycle Analysis, Time Series Methods, Macroeconomic Models, Medium And Long-run Projections, Fiscal And Financial Forecasts, And Sectoral Forecasting. The Book Then Addresses The Main Issues Surrounding The Use Of Forecasts, Including Accuracy And Communication Challenges, As Well As Their Policy Implications. A Tour Of The Economic Data And Forecasting Institutions Is Also Provided.--book Cover. First Principles -- The Data -- Incoming News And Near-term Forecasting -- Time Series Methods -- Modelling Behaviour -- Macroeconomic Models -- Medium- And Long-run Projections -- Financial And Commodity Markets -- Budget Forecasts -- Sectoral Forecasting -- Accuracy -- Using The Forecasts -- Communication Challenges -- A Tour Of The Forecasting Institutions. Nicolas Carnot, Vincent Koen And Bruno Tissot. Includes Bibliographical References (p. 292-302) And Index. Front Matter....Pages i-xix First Principles....Pages 1-14 The Data....Pages 15-50 Incoming News and Near-Term Forecasting....Pages 51-84 Time Series Methods....Pages 85-102 Modelling Behaviour....Pages 103-132 Macroeconomic Models....Pages 133-154 Medium- and Long-Run Projections....Pages 155-175 Financial and Commodity Markets....Pages 176-206 Budget Forecasts....Pages 207-228 Sectoral Forecasting....Pages 229-234 Accuracy....Pages 235-250 Using the Forecasts....Pages 251-264 Communication Challenges....Pages 265-274 A Tour of the Forecasting Institutions....Pages 275-290 Epilogue....Pages 291-291 Back Matter....Pages 292-315 This book provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. It focuses first on a wide range of theories as well as empirical techniques: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium- and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting. The book then addresses the main issues surrounding the use of forecasts, including accuracy and communication challenges, as well as their policy implications. A tour of the economic data and forecasting institutions is also provided. Economic Forecasting provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. The focus is first on a wide range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting. In addition, the book addresses the main issues surrounding the use of forecasts (accuracy, communication challenges) and their policy implications. A tour of the economic data and forecasting institutions is also provided.