Economic Development Implications of the Venezuelan Migrant Crisis : Trinidad and Tobago and the Caribbean Community

This book analyzes the ways in which the Venezuelan immigrant community is making an impact on the social and economic dynamic of small economies. This publication addresses some of the main economic development conversations on trade, labor, and fiscal implications of immigration. This book attempts to collate and unpack some of the relevant theoretical frameworks which provide a basis for policymakers and other key decision-makers. In this regard, the links between immigration and economic development is discussed with a focus on Trinidad and Tobago as a representative case within the Caribbean community. Roger Hosein is a Senior Lecturer in the Department of Economics at the University of the West Indies, St. Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago. He is also the coordinator of the Trade and Economic Development Unit (TEDU) a research cluster within the Department of Economics. Anthony Gonzales is the former Director of the Institute of International Relations at the University of the West Indies, St. Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago. Bhoendradatt Tewarie is the former Vice Chancellor of the University of the West Indies, St. Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago. Rebecca Gookool-Bosland is a Lecturer in the Department of Economics at the University of the West Indies, St. Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago Preface Contents Abbreviations List of Figures List of Tables 1 A Regional, Hemispheric or Global Approach to the Venezuelan Immigrant Crisis? 1.1 Introduction 1.2 Three Culture Spheres and an Emerging Migration Pattern 1.3 Venezuela, a Surprising and Dramatic Development 1.4 A Wider View of Immigration 1.5 Labour Issues 1.5.1 The Canadian Example 1.6 The Challenge of Integration 1.7 What Increases Value of Immigrants? 1.8 Immigration Challenges 1.8.1 Venezuelan Immigration to Trinidad and Tobago 1.8.2 IOM Reports on CARICOM Countries 1.8.3 Other Key Organizations 1.8.4 Regional Host Countries 1.8.5 UNHCR Recommendations for Trinidad and Tobago 1.9 Finance 1.10 Conclusion References 2 The Venezuelan Migration Crisis: Evolution and Prospects 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Venezuelan Migration in Historical Perspective 2.3 Venezuelan Migration in Global and Regional Context 2.4 Drivers of Venezuelan Migration 2.5 Predicting Venezuelan Migrant Flows for 2021 and Beyond 2.5.1 Rationale and Difficulties in Migration Forecasting 2.5.2 Modelling 2.6 Scenario Outlook 2.7 Conclusion Appendix 1 References 3 Venezuelan Migrants: A Comparative Look at T&T and Other Latin American and Caribbean Countries 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Conceptual Framework: Domains and Themes 3.2.1 Foundation 3.2.2 Markers and Means 3.2.2.1 Housing 3.2.2.2 Health 3.2.2.3 Education 3.2.2.4 Food Security 3.2.2.5 Employment 3.2.3 Social Connection 3.2.3.1 Social Bonds 3.2.3.2 Social Bridges 3.2.3.3 Social Links 3.2.4 Facilitators 3.3 Conclusion Appendix 1: List of Surveys Consulted References 4 Labour Market Impact of Immigration: Sketching the Immigration Surplus of Venezuelan Immigrants in T&T 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Case Studies: Impact of Immigrant Flows on Unemployment and Real Wages in the Host Country 4.2.1 From Cuba to the US: Marielitos Experience 4.2.1.1 Impact on Unemployment 4.2.1.2 Impact on Real Wages 4.2.2 Russia to Israel: Aliyah 4.2.2.1 Impact on Unemployment 4.2.2.2 Impact on Real Wages 4.2.3 From Angola and Mozambique to Portugal 4.2.3.1 Impact on Unemployment 4.2.4 From Algeria to France 4.2.4.1 Impact of Unemployment 4.2.4.2 Impact on Wages 4.2.5 Summary 4.3 The Quality of Immigrants Matter 4.3.1 Wadhwa et al. (2008)—Highly Skilled STEM Immigrants 4.3.2 Waldinger (2010)—Mathematics 4.4 The Traditional Immigration Surplus 4.5 Assessing the Potential Impact of the Venezuelan Migrants on Labour Market Outcomes for T&T 4.6 Conclusion Appendix High Skilled Immigration and Human Capital Externalities References 5 Trade Impact of Immigration 5.1 Introduction 5.1.1 Immigration and the Traded Sectors 5.1.1.1 Vietnam Trade with the US 5.1.1.2 The Lifting of the Embargo 5.1.1.3 Haitian Migrants in Brazil 5.2 Immigrants Impact on Informational Costs 5.2.1 UK and Commonwealth and Non-Commonwealth Trade Partners 5.2.2 US and South Korean Wig Imports 5.2.2.1 Production Network 5.2.2.2 Export Network 5.3 Immigrants and Business and Social Network Effects 5.4 Immigrant’s Impact on Consumption in Host Economy 5.5 Immigrant Education, Skill Level and Trade 5.5.1 Survey Conducted on Venezuelan Immigrants in T&T 5.6 Immigration and the Non-Tradable Sector 5.6.1 The Export X Sector 5.6.2 Impact on the M Sector 5.6.3 N Sector 5.7 Assessing the Potential Impact of the Venezuelan Migrants on Trade Outcomes for T&T 5.7.1 Output Assuming No Venezuelan Immigrants 5.7.2 Increasing λ =0.28 to λ =1 5.7.3 Reduce the Amount of Venezuelans Working in the N Sector When λ = 1 5.7.4 A Simple Simulation: λ = 1 and Employment of Registered Migrants Distributed as x = 75% and m = 9% and n = 6% 5.8 Conclusion References 6 Fiscal Impact of Immigration 6.1 Introduction 6.2 Static Versus Dynamic Approaches 6.3 International Evidence on the Fiscal Impact of Immigrants 6.3.1 Developed Countries 6.3.2 Developing Countries 6.4 Estimating the Fiscal Cost of Migrants in T&T 6.4.1 National Security (NS) Cost of Migrants 6.4.2 Registration Costs 6.4.3 Estimating the Cost of Venezuelan Migrants on T&T’s Health Sector 6.4.4 Net Fiscal Impact 6.5 Can Venezuelan Migrants Improve T&T’s Labour Market Outcomes and Fiscal Situation? 6.6 A Demographic Dividend? 6.7 Other Opportunities from Registering ALL Venezuelan Immigrants 6.8 Conclusion 6.8.1 Policy Recommendation for T&T References 7 Establish a Zone of Peace, Prosperity and Sustainable Development in the Americas 7.1 Introduction 7.2 Harsh Realities 7.3 World Problem 7.3.1 Informing Principles 7.3.2 Managing a World Problem 7.3.3 Integration 7.4 Developing Countries Carry the Burden 7.4.1 Syria and South Sudan 7.5 The Venezuelan Crisis 7.5.1 Trinidad and Tobago 7.6 A Regional Approach—Network Organization 7.6.1 Hemispheric Responsibility 7.7 Managing Triggers of Fear 7.7.1 The Americas 7.8 Conclusion References References Index