ECONOMETRIC MODELS OF THE EURO-AREA CENTRAL BANKS; ED. BY GABRIEL FAGAN

## Index vi Econometric models of the euro-area central banks ## Foreword This book presents the main macroeconomic models used in the central banks of the euro area. These include models of individual countries, multi-country models and aggregate euro-area models. In my view the important contribution of this volume is that it is the first attempt to provide a systematic comparison of these models in terms of their structures, main features and properties. In line with the Eurosystem policy of openness and transparency, we have decided to publish, in many cases for the first time, the details of these models. I believe that this information will be of interest to central bankers, academics, ECB watchers and the many others interested in learning more about the functioning of the euro-area economy. The interest in this volume will stem from the fact that these tools provide an important input into policy formulation within the Eurosystem. Of course, as the overview chapter indicates, these models are not used in a mechanical fashion. The information they provide complements that from other sources, including smaller scale models, monetary and financial indicators, survey evidence and judgmental assessments. Nevertheless the models described in this volume are a crucial element in the preparation of economic projections, helping to ensure consistency within and across countries. They are also extensively used for scenario analysis aimed at assessing the impacts of shocks on the economy and for rapidly updating projections in the light of new information. This volume has been prepared through the cooperation of experts in the Working Group on Econometric Modelling (WGEM). This working group provides a forum in which technical experts from around the Eurosystem can exchange ideas and experiences in relation to model development. Through such cooperation we have been able to exploit important synergies in model development. The result has been a considerable improvement in the quality of our modelling infrastructure and a greater degree of convergence in the underlying approaches to model building. Complete harmonization has not been achieved, but, so long as there are open issues in macroeconomics, this would be neither realistic nor desirable. Nevertheless cooperation has enabled us to learn vii much from one another, and this volume is one of the fruits of this endeavour. This Is The First Time That A Comprehensive Description And Systematic Comparison Of The Main Macroeconomic Models Has Been Published. This Book Will Be Of Great Interest To Central Bank And Government Economists, As Well As Academics, Economists And Students With An Interest In Central Banking, Econometric Modelling, Forecasting And Macroeconomic Policy.--jacket. 1. Overview Of The Structural Econometric Models Of Euro-area Central Banks / Gabriel Fagan And Julian Morgan -- 2. Area-wide Model / Alistair Dieppe -- 3. Edge : The Bank Of Finland's Macroeconomic Model Of The Euro Area / Mike Kortelainen -- 4. Eurosystem's Multi-country Model And The Link Block / Tohmas Karlsson And Peter Mcadam -- 5. Euromon : A Macroeconometric Multi-country Model Of The World Economy From The Nederlandsche Bank / Pete Van Els -- 6. National Bank Of Belgium's Quarterly Model / Philippe Jeanfils -- 7. Macroeconometric Multi-country Model Of The Deutsche Bundesbank / Britta Hamburg And Karl-heinz Todter -- 8. Model Of The Banco De Espana / Pablo Burriel, Angel Estrada And Javier Valles -- 9. Mascotte : The Banque De France Forecasting Model / Jean-pierre Villetelle, Olivier De Bandt And Veronique Brunhes-lesage -- 10. Econometric Model Of The Bank Of Greece / Nicholas Zonzilos -- 11. Central Bank And Financial Services Authority Of Ireland's Model / Kieran Mcquinn, Nuala O'donnell And Mary Ryan -- 12. Bank Of Italy's Quarterly Model / Fabio Busetti, Alberto Locarno And Libero Monteforte -- 13. Luxembourg Block Of The Multi-country Model / Paolo Guarda -- 14. Morkmon : A Macroeconomic Model Of The Netherlands' Economy / Peter Van Els -- 15. Austrian Quarterly Model / Gerhard Fenz And Martin Spitzer -- 16. Annual Macroeconmetric Model Of The Banco De Portugal / Gabriela Lopes De Castro -- 17. Bank Of Finland's Macroeconomic Model Bof5 / Hanna-leena Mannisto. Edited By Gabriel Fagan, Julian Morgan. Includes Bibliographical References And Index. This Book Provides A Description Of The Main Macroeconomic Models Used By The European Central Bank And The Euro Area National Central Banks (eurosystem). These Models Are Used To Help Prepare Economic Projections And Scenario Analysis For Individual Countries And The Euro Area As A Whole. The Volume Takes Stock Of The Current Macroeconometric Modelling Infrastructure Available Within The Eurosystem, Highlighting Not Only The Structures And Main Features Of The Models Used But Also Their Purposes And Underlying Model-building Philosophies. A Bird S Eye View Of The Key Details Of The Design, Structure And Characteristics Of The Models Is Provided, Along With Information On The Responses Of These Models To A Series Of Standard Economic And Policy Shocks. This Is The First Time That A Comprehensive Description And Systematic Comparison Of The Main Macroeconomic Models Has Been Published. This Book Will Be Of Great Interest To Central Bank And Government Economists, As Well As Academics, Economists And Students With An Interest In Central Banking, Econometric Modelling, Forecasting And Macroeconomic Policy. Provides a description of the macroeconomic models used by the European Central Bank and the euro area national central banks. This volume takes stock of the macroeconometric modelling infrastructure of the Eurosystem. It highlights the structures and features of the models used with their purposes and is for those interested in central banking