Earthquake science and seismic risk reduction : [proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on ... Arbus, Sardinia, Italy, 14-19 October 2000

What is the first thing that ordinary people, for whom journalists are the proxy, ask when they meet a seismologist? It is certainly nothing technical like "What was the stress drop of the last earthquake in the Imperial Valley?" It is a sim­ ple question, which nevertheless summarizes the real demands that society has for seismology. This question is "Can you predict earthquakes?" Regrettably, notwithstanding the feeling of omnipotence induced by modem technology, the answer at present is the very opposite of "Yes, of course". The primary motivation for the question "Can you predict earthquakes?" is practical. No other natural phenomenon has the tremendous destructive power of a large earthquake, a power which is rivaled only by a large scale war. An earth­ quake in a highly industrialized region is capable of adversely affecting the econ­ omy of the whole world for several years. But another motivation is cognitive. The aim of science is 'understanding' nature, and one of the best ways to show that we understand a phenomenon is the ability to make accurate predictions. This book can be used as a reference by both specialists (e.g., seismologists, earthquake engineers, and physicists) and related professionals (e.g., government officials, land use planners). Scientific issues (the physics of earthquake occurrence and implications for predictability), applications (procedures for time-independent hazard estimates, and time-dependent forecasts solidly grounded on recent progress in earthquake physics, as well as unresolved scientific questions pertaining to such estimates), and policy issues (practical measures for seismic risk reduction in Greece and Turkey, and how governments should view earthquake prediction) are comprehensively covered. Each of the eight chapters is followed by a thorough set of references to recent literature. CD-ROM with color figures is included Front Matter....Pages N3-xviii Modeling earthquakes....Pages 1-19 The classical view of earthquakes....Pages 20-101 The physics of complex systems: applications to earthquake....Pages 102-147 Time-independent hazard....Pages 148-180 Time-dependent hazard estimates and forecasts, and their uncertainties....Pages 181-216 Gathering new data....Pages 217-249 Seismic risk mitigation....Pages 250-283 Earthquake prediction and public policy....Pages 284-329 Back Matter....Pages 330-338