Dynamic Decision Theory: Applications to Urban and Regional Topics (Studies in Operational Regional Science, 6)

Preface xi Preface Choice processes appear in all spheres of society. Hitherto ruling paradigms in the modelling of choice problems have presumed a competitive general equilibrium which, however, proves insufficient for dynamic processes.This contribution aims at providing a general coherent and closed framework for the dynamic modelling of decision processes. It was one of my main interests to build a bridge between the pure model building concepts and their practical applications. Therefore all given examples are related to empirical work.Solution algorithms for the estimation of trend parameters as well as the numerical simulation in concrete applications therefore playa central role in this contribution.Friendly relations with a number of colleagues from many universities in Europe, and the U.S. have emerged during the different applications. I wish to thank all of them. The international cooperations were mainly initiated and supported by conferences and workshops organized and financed by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (lIASA), the Istituto Ricerche Economico-Sociali Del Piemonte (I RES). the Institut National D 'Etudes De'mographiques (I NED), the Centre for Regional Science Research UmeJ. (CERUM) and the Projets de Cooperation et D'Echange avec France (Procop>' Special thanks go to the Volkswagen Stiftung for financial support of this work over the years.Thanks also go in particular to my friend and mentor Prof.W.Weidlich for his encouragement and for the many suggestions he made in fruitful discussions and common work that have taken place over the years. Finally I am very indebted to Prof. P. Nijkamp for his interest in this work and for making many valuable suggestions. My sincere thanks also go to Mrs. W. Brown, who did the editorial work of the manuscript with great patience and care. Stuttgart, December 1988 GUnter Haag xi \* \* stationary values x = -0.369; Y = 0.419 In Figures 4.2 and 4.3 the simulated dynamic paths of ten (of the twelve) SMSAs are shown. The dynamic paths of Buffalo and Eri are not plotted because of their proximity to those of Miami and Spokane. In both Figures 'VI Miami Choice processes appear in all spheres of society. Hitherto ruling paradigms in the modelling of choice problems have presumed a competitive general equi librium which, however, proves insufficient for dynamic processes. This contribution aims at providing a general coherent and closed frame work for the dynamic modelling of decision processes. It was one of my main interests to build a bridge between the pure model building concepts and their practical applications. Therefore all given examples are related to empirical work. Solution algorithms for the estimation of trend parameters as well as the numerical simulation in concrete applications therefore playa central role in this contribution. Friendly relations with a number of colleagues from many universities in Europe, and the U.S. have emerged during the different applications. I wish to thank all of them. The international cooperations were mainly initiated and supported by conferences and workshops organized and financed by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (lIASA), the Istituto Ricerche Economico-Sociali Del Piemonte (I RES). the Institut National D 'Etudes De'mographiques (I NED), the Centre for Regional Science Research UmeJ. (CERUM) and the Projets de Cooperation et D'Echange avec France (Procop>' Special thanks go to the Volkswagen Stiftung for financial support of this work over the years. Thanks also go in particular to my friend and mentor Prof. W. Weidlich for his encouragement and for the many suggestions he made in fruitful discus sions and common work that have taken place over the years Front Matter....Pages i-xi Introduction....Pages 1-8 A Dynamic Theory of Decision Processes....Pages 9-50 Shocks in Urban Evolution....Pages 51-79 Intra — Urban Migration....Pages 81-99 Inter — Regional Migration....Pages 101-137 Chaotic Evolution of Migratory Systems....Pages 139-163 Spatial Interaction Models and their Micro-Foundation....Pages 165-190 Further Applications and Extensions....Pages 191-212 Appendix: The Master Equation....Pages 213-233 Back Matter....Pages 235-256