Dylan Evans Risk Intelligence How to Live with Uncertainty Atlantic Books (2013)

Dylan Evans Risk Intelligence How to Live with Uncertainty Atlantic Books (2013) An elegant and radical manual that teaches us how take better control of our lives in an age of global uncertainty. There is a special kind of intelligence for dealing with risk and uncertainty. It doesn't correlate with IQ and most psychologists fail to spot it because it is found in such a disparate, rag-tag group of people such as weather-forecasters, professional gamblers and hedge-fund managers. This book shows just how important risk intelligence is. Many people in positions which require high risk intelligence - doctors, financial regulators and bankers - seem unable to navigate doubt and uncertainty. Risk Intelligence is a traveller's guide to the twilight zone of probabilities and speculation. Dylan Evans shows us how risk intelligence is vital to making good decisions, from dealing with climate change to combating terrorism. He argues that we can all learn a lot from expert gamblers, not just about money, but about how to make decisions in all aspects of our lives

There is a special kind of intelligence for dealing with risk and uncertainty. It doesn't correlate with IQ and most psychologists fail to spot it because it is found in such a disparate, rag-tag group of people such as weather-forecasters, professional gamblers and hedge-fund managers.

This book shows just how important risk intelligence is. Many people in positions which require high risk intelligence - doctors, financial regulators and bankers - seem unable to navigate doubt and uncertainty. Risk Intelligence is a traveller's guide to the twilight zone of probabilities and speculation. Dylan Evans shows us how risk intelligence is vital to making good decisions, from dealing with climate change to combating terrorism. He argues that we can all learn a lot from expert gamblers, not just about money, but about how to make decisions in all aspects of our lives.

Title Page......Page 4 Copyright page......Page 5 Dedication page......Page 6 Contents......Page 7 Chapter One: Why Risk Intelligence Matters......Page 9 Chapter Two: Discovering Your Risk Quotient......Page 29 Chapter Three: Into The Twilight Zone......Page 50 Chapter Four: Tricks of the Mind......Page 70 Chapter Five: The Madness of Crowds......Page 101 Chapter Six: Thinking by Numbers......Page 121 Chapter Seven: Weighing the Probable......Page 137 Chapter Eight: How to Gamble and Win......Page 157 Chapter Nine: Knowing What You Know......Page 177 Acknowledgments......Page 195 Appendix 1: Risk Intelligence Test......Page 198 Appendix 2: Personal Prediction Test......Page 207 Appendix 3: 2010 Prediction Game......Page 210 Appendix 4: Research Data......Page 215 Notes......Page 222 Index......Page 247 Note on the Author......Page 282 In an age of global uncertainty it has become increasingly difficult to work out what exactly should be done next. In Risk Intelligence, Dylan Evans outlines a powerful form of thinking; one where the same decision making and intuition seen in the best poker players can be effectively transferred to business, politics and everyday life.