Developments in Demographic Forecasting

This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters. Front Matter ....Pages i-viii Introduction (Nico Keilman, Stefano Mazzuco)....Pages 1-20 Stochastic Population Forecasting: A Bayesian Approach Based on Evaluation by Experts (Rebecca Graziani)....Pages 21-42 Using Expert Elicitation to Build Long-Term Projection Assumptions (Patrice Dion, Nora Galbraith, Elham Sirag)....Pages 43-62 Post-transitional Demography and Convergence: What Can We Learn from Half a Century of World Population Prospects? (Maria Castiglioni, Gianpiero Dalla-Zuanna, Maria Letizia Tanturri)....Pages 63-87 Projecting Proportionate Age–Specific Fertility Rates via Bayesian Skewed Processes (Emanuele Aliverti, Daniele Durante, Bruno Scarpa)....Pages 89-103 A Three-Component Approach to Model and Forecast Age-at-Death Distributions (Ugofilippo Basellini, Carlo Giovanni Camarda)....Pages 105-129 Alternative Forecasts of Danish Life Expectancy (Marie-Pier Bergeron-Boucher, Søren Kjæ rgaard, Marius D. Pascariu, José Manuel Aburto, Jesús-Adrián Alvarez, Ugofilippo Basellini et al.)....Pages 131-151 Coherent Mortality Forecasting with Standards: Low Mortality Serves as a Guide (Heather Booth)....Pages 153-178 European Mortality Forecasts: Are the Targets Still Moving? (Nico Keilman, Sigve Kristoffersen)....Pages 179-192 Bayesian Disaggregated Forecasts: Internal Migration in Iceland (Junni L. Zhang, John Bryant)....Pages 193-215 Forecasting Origin-Destination-Age-Sex Migration Flow Tables with Multiplicative Components (James Raymer, Xujing Bai, Peter W. F. Smith)....Pages 217-242 New Approaches to the Conceptualization and Measurement of Age and Ageing (Sergei Scherbov, Warren C. Sanderson)....Pages 243-258