Democracy Without Parties in Peru : The Politics of Uncertainty and Decay

This book provides an in-depth look into key political dynamics that obtain in a democracy without parties, offering a window into political undercurrents increasingly in evidence throughout the Latin American region, where political parties are withering. For the past three decades, Peru has showcased a political universe populated by amateur politicians and the dominance of personalism as the main party–voter linkage form. The study peruses the post-2000 evolution of some of the key Peruvian electoral vehicles and classifies the partisan universe as a party non-system. There are several elements endogenous to personalist electoral vehicles that perpetuate partylessness, contributing to the absence of party building. The book also examines electoral dynamics in partyless settings, centrally shaped by effective electoral supply, personal brands, contingency, and iterated rounds of strategic voting calculi. Given the scarcity of information electoral vehicles provide, as well as the enormously complex political environment Peruvian citizens inhabit, personal brands provide readymade informational shortcuts that simplify the political world. The concept of “negative legitimacy environments” is furnished to capture political settings comprised of supermajorities of floating voters, pervasive negative political identities, and a generic citizen preference for newcomers and political outsiders. Such environments, increasingly present throughout Latin America, produce several deleterious effects, including high political uncertainty, incumbency disadvantage, and political time compression. Peru’s “democracy without parties” fails to deliver essential democratic functions including governability, responsiveness, horizontal and vertical accountability, or democratic representation, among others. Acknowledgements Contents List of Figures List of Tables 1 Introduction: Party System Decay across Latin America 1 Introduction 2 Party System Deinstitutionalization Across Latin America 2.1 Brazil 2.2 Mexico 2.3 El Salvador 2.4 Panama 2.5 Continuing Party System Weakness: Bolivia and Colombia 2.5.1 Bolivia 2.5.2 Colombia 2.6 Partyless Landscapes: Party Nonsystems 2.6.1 Ecuador 2.6.2 Guatemala 2.7 Institutionalized Party Systems No More: Costa Rica, Honduras, Chile 2.7.1 Costa Rica 2.7.2 Honduras 2.7.3 Chile 3 Theoretical Reasons to Forecast Continued Party System Decay 4 The Personalization of Politics in Latin America and Its Correlates 5 Consequences of Party System Decay on Democracy 6 Book Objectives 6.1 Adequate Labeling of “Party” Species and Theoretical Implications 6.2 Political Personal Brands Versus Party Brands 6.3 A New Concept: A Negative Legitimacy Environment 6.4 Endogenous Factors in Party Non-Building 6.5 Determinants of Elections in “Democracies Without Parties” 6.6 Empirical Contributions: Peru’s Electoral Vehicles 6.7 Relationship Between Electoral Vehicles and Democratic Governance 7 Plan of the Book 8 A Note on Terminology Bibliography 2 Structural Impediments to Party System Reconstruction in Peru 1 Introduction 2 The Longue Duree: Or the Weight of History 3 The Legacy of Political Agency (I): Alan Garcia 4 The Legacy of Political Agency (II): Alberto Fujimori 5 Absence of Political Agency to Politicize Societal Cleavages 6 Self-Perpetuating Dynamics in Democracies Without Parties 7 The Genetic Code of Electoral Vehicles: Entropy and Decay 8 Conclusion Bibliography 3 Party Non-systems, Personal Brands, and Negative Legitimacy Environments 1 Introduction 2 Defining a Party Non-system 3 Does Peru Qualify as a Party Non-System? 4 Partisanship in Peru: A Rara Avis 5 Institutional and Behavioral Personalism in Peru 5.1 Complex Political Environments and Personalism 6 Party Brands Versus Personal Brands in Peru 6.1 Conceptualizing Political Personal Brands 6.2 Examples of Personal Brands 6.3 Personal Brand Dilution: Causal Factors 6.4 Personal Brands and the Mass Media Ecosystem 7 A New Concept: Negative Legitimacy Environments 7.1 Effects of Negative Legitimacy Environments 8 Conclusion Bibliography 4 The Involution of Peru’s Electoral Vehicles 1 Introduction 2 Conceptualizing Party Institutionalization 2.1 Scoring and Placing Peruvian Electoral Vehicles 2.2 Party Institutionalization, Party Systems, and Democracy 3 The Fate of the Traditional Parties in Post-Fujimori Peru 3.1 Alianza Popular Revolucionaria Americana (APRA) 3.1.1 Autonomy 3.1.2 Partido Popular Cristiano (PPC) 3.1.3 Societal Roots 3.2 Accion Popular (AP) 3.2.1 Autonomy 3.3 Partido Popular Cristiano (PPC) 3.3.1 Social Rootedness 3.4 The Conservative Right: Partido Popular Cristiano 3.4.1 Autonomy 3.4.2 Coherence 3.4.3 Social Rootedness 4 The New Electoral Vehicles of Post-2001 Democracy 4.1 Fujimorismo 4.1.1 Autonomy 4.1.2 Coherence 4.1.3 Societal Roots 4.1.4 The Recent Decay of Fujimorismo 4.2 Partido Nacionalista Peruano (PNP) 4.2.1 Autonomy 4.2.2 Coherence 4.2.3 Societal Rootedness 4.3 The Fractured Left 5 Frente Amplio 5.1 Autonomy 5.2 Coherence 5.3 Social Rootedness 6 Conclusion Bibliography 5 Electoral Dynamics in a Partyless Environment 1 Introduction 2 Understanding Voter Behavior with a Classic Funnel Approach 2.1 Group Attachments 2.2 Issue-Based Voting 2.3 Valence Considerations 2.4 Campaign Effects 3 The Inevitable Absence of Inter-Temporal Programmatic Structuration 3.1 Coherent Issue-Based Stands 3.2 Meaningful Policy Differences Among Candidates 3.3 Correspondence Between Campaign Platforms and Enacted Policies 4 The Primacy of Electoral Supply over Electoral Demand 5 The Importance of Strategic Voting: Expecting the Unexpected 5.1 The 1990 Presidential Election 5.2 The 2006 Presidential Election 5.3 The 2010 Lima Mayoralty Election 5.4 The 2011 Presidential Election 5.5 The 2016 Presidential Election 5.6 The 2021 Presidential Election 5.7 Explaining Peruvian Strategic Voting 6 A Stylized Account of Peruvian Electoral Campaign Dynamics 7 Conclusion Bibliography 6 How a Democracy without Parties Malfunctions 1 Introduction 2 The Absence of Democratic Responsiveness: Institutionalizing Policy Certainty 3 Vertical Accountability: Repeated Betrayal of Mandates 3.1 Mandate Reversals Across Time 3.2 Consequences of Repeated Betrayals of Mandate 4 Horizontal Accountability: From an Innocuous to a Transgressive Congress 4.1 Executive–Legislative Relations: Moving Toward Serial Brinkmanship 5 Serial, Low-Intensity Populism in Peru 6 Imperiled Governability in State–Society Relations 7 Democratic Consolidation? Avoiding Democratic Breakdown by Default 8 Conclusion Bibliography 7 Conclusion