Defending Planet Earth : Near-Earth Object Surveys and Hazard Mitigation Strategies

"The United States spends approximately $4 million each year searching for near-Earth objects (NEOs). The objective is to detect those that may collide with Earth. The majority of this funding supports the operation of several observatories that scan the sky searching for NEOs. This, however, is insufficient in detecting the majority of NEOs that may present a tangible threat to humanity. A significantly smaller amount of funding supports ways to protect the Earth from such a potential collision or "mitigation." In 2005, a Congressional mandate called for NASA to detect 90 percent of NEOs with diameters of 140 meters of greater by 2020. Defending Planet Earth: Near-Earth Object Surveys and Hazard Mitigation Strategies identifies the need for detection of objects as small as 30 to 50 meters as these can be highly destructive. The book explores four main types of mitigation including civil defense, "slow push" or "pull" methods, kinetic impactors and nuclear explosions. It also asserts that responding effectively to hazards posed by NEOs requires national and international cooperation. Defending Planet Earth: Near-Earth Object Surveys and Hazard Mitigation Strategies is a useful guide for scientists, astronomers, policy makers and engineers."--Publisher's description. Cover 1 Title 2 Copyright 3 The National Academies 4 OTHER RECENT REPORTS OF THE SPACE STUDIES BOARD AND THE AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ENGINEERING BOARD 5 COMMITTEE TO REVIEW NEAR-EARTH-OBJECT SURVEYS AND HAZARD MITIGATION STRATEGIES 6 SPACE STUDIES BOARD 8 AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ENGINEERING BOARD 9 Dedication 10 Preface 12 Acknowledgments 14 Contents 16 Summary 20 THE SURVEY AND DETECTION OF NEAR-EARTH OBJECTS 21 CHARACTERIZATION AND THE ARECIBO AND GOLDSTONE OBSERVATORIES 22 MITIGATION 23 FURTHER RESEARCH 24 NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION 24 RECENT NEAR-EARTH-OBJECT-RELATED EVENTS 24 REFERENCES 25 1 Introduction 26 Task 1: NEO Surveys 27 Task 2: NEO Hazard Mitigation 28 REFERENCES 30 2 Risk Analysis 31 INVENTORY OF NEAR-EARTH OBJECTS (NEOS) AND POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS NEOS 34 Introduction 34 The Distribution of NEO Orbits 35 The Size Distribution of NEOs and Potentially Hazardous NEOs 36 Damage Produced by the Impact of NEOs 38 Land Impacts That Are Incapable of Producing Global Effects 39 Tsunamis Produced by Ocean Impacts 40 Impacts Capable of Producing Global Effects 40 Long-Period Comet Impacts 41 Assessing the Hazard 41 WARNING TIME FOR MITIGATION 44 SOCIETAL ELEMENTS OF NEO RISKS 45 REFERENCES 46 3 Survey and Detection of Near-Earth Objects 48 THE SPACEGUARD EFFORT 49 Minor Planet Center 49 Near Earth Object Program Office 50 Near-Earth-Objects Dynamic Site 50 PAST NEAR-EARTH-OBJECT DISCOVERY EFFORTS 50 Lowell Observatory Near-Earth-Object Search 50 Near-Earth-Asteroid Tracking 51 PRESENT NEAR-EARTH-OBJECT DISCOVERY EFFORTS 51 Catalina Sky Survey 51 Lincoln Near Earth Asteroid Research Program 51 Spacewatch 52 CURRENT SPACE-BASED DETECTION EFFORTS 52 Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer for Near-Earth Objects (NEOWISE) 52 Canada’s Near-Earth-Object Surveillance Satellite 53 Germany’s AsteroidFinder 53 ADDRESSING THE 140-METER REQUIREMENT: FUTURE GROUND- AND SPACE-BASED NEAR-EARTH-OBJECT DISCOVERY EFFORTS 53 FUTURE TELESCOPE SYSTEMS FOR SURVEYS OF NEAR-EARTH OBJECTS 54 Large Synoptic Survey Telescope 54 Panoramic Survey Telescope and Rapid Response System 4 56 Catalina Sky Survey Binocular Telescopes 56 Discovery Channel Telescope 59 Space-Based Detection Techniques 60 0.5-Meter-Diameter Infrared Space Telescope 61 NEO Survey Spacecraft 61 SURVEY AND DETECTION SCHEDULES 61 Low-Altitude Airburst NEOs: Advance Warning 68 Imminent Impactors: NEOs on Final Approach to an Earth Impact 68 REFERENCES 69 4 Characterization 70 GROUND-BASED REMOTE CHARACTERIZATION 70 THE ROLE OF RADAR IN THE CHARACTERIZATION OF NEAR-EARTH OBJECTS 71 Arecibo Radar Observatory 72 Goldstone Solar System Radar 73 Capabilities of Arecibo and Goldstone 75 Operational Reliability of Arecibo and Goldstone 79 Arecibo and Goldstone Radar Operating Costs 79 Recent Funding History of the Arecibo Radar 80 CHARACTERIZATION ISSUES FOR AIRBURSTS 81 IN SITU CHARACTERIZATION RELEVANT FOR MITIGATION 82 HUMAN MISSIONS TO NEAR-EARTH OBJECTS 83 REFERENCES 84 5 Mitigation 85 CIVIL DEFENSE: DISASTER PREPARATION AND RECOVERY 88 SLOW-PUSH-PULL METHODS 89 Enhancement of Natural Effects 90 Enhanced Evaporation of Surface Material 90 Application of Contact Force 91 Application of Gravitational Force 91 Applicability of Slow-Push-Pull Mitigation Techniques 92 KINETIC IMPACT METHODS 92 Description of Kinetic Impact and Its Use 92 Summary 93 NUCLEAR METHODS 95 Models and Uncertainties 95 Decades to Go—Standoff Burst 96 Decades to Go—Small Surface Burst 97 Conclusions 97 DELIVERING PAYLOADS TO NEAR-EARTH OBJECTS 99 DISRUPTION 103 SUMMARY 103 BIBLIOGRAPHY 106 6 Research 108 7 National and International Coordination and Collaboration 111 EXISTING ORGANIZATIONS 111 NATIONAL COOPERATION 112 INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION 113 EDUCATION AND PUBLIC OUTREACH 115 REFERENCE 115 8 Optimal Approaches 116 Appendixes 120 Appendix A: Independent Cost Assessment 122 Major Cost-Analysis Assumptions 124 Methodology for Estimating the Range of Cost and Schedule for Ground-Based Facilities 124 Methodology for Estimating the Most Probable Range of Cost and Schedule for Space-Based Missions 124 Most Probable Range of Cost and Schedule for the Eight Projects 125 REFERENCES 129 Arecibo Observatory 129 Catalina Sky Survey Binocular Telescope 129 Construction Cost Geographical Area Cost Adjustments 129 Cost Models 129 Don Quijote 130 Gravity Tractor 130 Infrared Telescope 130 Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) 130 Nuclear Deflector 130 Panoramic Survey Telescope and Rapid Response System (PanSTARRS) 131 Technology Readiness Levels and Risk Ratings 131 Appendix B: Letter of Request 132 Appendix C: Committee, Panel, and Staff Biographical Information 134 COMMITTEE TO REVIEW NEAR-EARTH-OBJECT SURVEYS AND HAZARD MITIGATION STRATEGIES 134 SURVEY/DETECTION PANEL 136 MITIGATION PANEL 138 STAFF 142 Appendix D: Minority Opinion - Mark Boslough, Mitigation Panel Member 145 Appendix E: Glossary and Selected Acronyms 147 0309149681,9780309149686 Cover......Page 1 Title......Page 2 Copyright......Page 3 The National Academies......Page 4 OTHER RECENT REPORTS OF THE SPACE STUDIES BOARD AND THE AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ENGINEERING BOARD......Page 5 COMMITTEE TO REVIEW NEAR-EARTH-OBJECT SURVEYS AND HAZARD MITIGATION STRATEGIES......Page 6 SPACE STUDIES BOARD......Page 8 AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ENGINEERING BOARD......Page 9 Dedication......Page 10 Preface......Page 12 Acknowledgments......Page 14 Contents......Page 16 Summary......Page 20 THE SURVEY AND DETECTION OF NEAR-EARTH OBJECTS......Page 21 CHARACTERIZATION AND THE ARECIBO AND GOLDSTONE OBSERVATORIES......Page 22 MITIGATION......Page 23 RECENT NEAR-EARTH-OBJECT-RELATED EVENTS......Page 24 REFERENCES......Page 25 1 Introduction......Page 26 Task 1: NEO Surveys......Page 27 Task 2: NEO Hazard Mitigation......Page 28 REFERENCES......Page 30 2 Risk Analysis......Page 31 Introduction......Page 34 The Distribution of NEO Orbits......Page 35 The Size Distribution of NEOs and Potentially Hazardous NEOs......Page 36 Damage Produced by the Impact of NEOs......Page 38 Land Impacts That Are Incapable of Producing Global Effects......Page 39 Impacts Capable of Producing Global Effects......Page 40 Assessing the Hazard......Page 41 WARNING TIME FOR MITIGATION......Page 44 SOCIETAL ELEMENTS OF NEO RISKS......Page 45 REFERENCES......Page 46 3 Survey and Detection of Near-Earth Objects......Page 48 Minor Planet Center......Page 49 Lowell Observatory Near-Earth-Object Search......Page 50 Lincoln Near Earth Asteroid Research Program......Page 51 Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer for Near-Earth Objects (NEOWISE)......Page 52 ADDRESSING THE 140-METER REQUIREMENT: FUTURE GROUND- AND SPACE-BASED NEAR-EARTH-OBJECT DISCOVERY EFFORTS......Page 53 Large Synoptic Survey Telescope......Page 54 Catalina Sky Survey Binocular Telescopes......Page 56 Discovery Channel Telescope......Page 59 Space-Based Detection Techniques......Page 60 SURVEY AND DETECTION SCHEDULES......Page 61 Imminent Impactors: NEOs on Final Approach to an Earth Impact......Page 68 REFERENCES......Page 69 GROUND-BASED REMOTE CHARACTERIZATION......Page 70 THE ROLE OF RADAR IN THE CHARACTERIZATION OF NEAR-EARTH OBJECTS......Page 71 Arecibo Radar Observatory......Page 72 Goldstone Solar System Radar......Page 73 Capabilities of Arecibo and Goldstone......Page 75 Arecibo and Goldstone Radar Operating Costs......Page 79 Recent Funding History of the Arecibo Radar......Page 80 CHARACTERIZATION ISSUES FOR AIRBURSTS......Page 81 IN SITU CHARACTERIZATION RELEVANT FOR MITIGATION......Page 82 HUMAN MISSIONS TO NEAR-EARTH OBJECTS......Page 83 REFERENCES......Page 84 5 Mitigation......Page 85 CIVIL DEFENSE: DISASTER PREPARATION AND RECOVERY......Page 88 SLOW-PUSH-PULL METHODS......Page 89 Enhanced Evaporation of Surface Material......Page 90 Application of Gravitational Force......Page 91 Description of Kinetic Impact and Its Use......Page 92 Summary......Page 93 Models and Uncertainties......Page 95 Decades to Go—Standoff Burst......Page 96 Conclusions......Page 97 DELIVERING PAYLOADS TO NEAR-EARTH OBJECTS......Page 99 SUMMARY......Page 103 BIBLIOGRAPHY......Page 106 6 Research......Page 108 EXISTING ORGANIZATIONS......Page 111 NATIONAL COOPERATION......Page 112 INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION......Page 113 REFERENCE......Page 115 8 Optimal Approaches......Page 116 Appendixes......Page 120 Appendix A: Independent Cost Assessment......Page 122 Methodology for Estimating the Most Probable Range of Cost and Schedule for Space-Based Missions......Page 124 Most Probable Range of Cost and Schedule for the Eight Projects......Page 125 Cost Models......Page 129 Nuclear Deflector......Page 130 Technology Readiness Levels and Risk Ratings......Page 131 Appendix B: Letter of Request......Page 132 COMMITTEE TO REVIEW NEAR-EARTH-OBJECT SURVEYS AND HAZARD MITIGATION STRATEGIES......Page 134 SURVEY/DETECTION PANEL......Page 136 MITIGATION PANEL......Page 138 STAFF......Page 142 Appendix D: Minority Opinion - Mark Boslough, Mitigation Panel Member......Page 145 Appendix E: Glossary and Selected Acronyms......Page 147 Committee To Review Near-earth-object Surveys And Hazard Mitigation Strategies ; Space Studies Board ; Aeronautics And Space Engineering Board, Division On Engineering And Physical Sciences, National Research Council Of The National Academies. Includes Bibliographical References. Also Available In Open Book Format Via The National Academies Press Home Page.