Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Cognitive Decision Research, Social Interaction, Development and Epistemology (Advances in Psychology (Amsterdam, Netherlands), 16.)

This volume contains the revised papers of an international symposium on research on fallacies, biases, and the development of decision behavior under uncertainty. The papers are organized in five main sections. The Introduction outlines the conceptual framework and how three of the sections - Cognitive Decision Research, Social Interaction, and Development and Epistemology - are interrelated and also how new fields, such as research into developmental questions, can be productively integrated. In the fifth section Comments are collected, which evaluate the impact of the contributions on decision research itself, and also on cognitive psychology, social psychology, economic theory, ant the discipline of mathematics education. Content: Editors Page ii Edited by Page iii Copyright page Page iv Preface Pages v-vi Roland W. Scholz Introduction to Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Biases, Fallacies, and the Development of Decision Making Original Research Article Pages 3-18 Roland W. Scholz The Theoretical Status of Judgmental Heuristics Original Research Article Pages 21-37 Thomas S. Wallsten The Base Rate Fallacy Controversy Original Research Article Pages 39-61 Maya Bar-Hillel The Two Camps on Rationality Original Research Article Pages 63-86 Helmut Jungermann The Role of Heuristics in Models of Decision Original Research Article Pages 87-108 Rudolf Groner, Marina Groner, Walter F. Bischof On the Testability of the Availability Heuristic Original Research Article Pages 109-119 Klaus Fiedler Problem Structuring Calculi and Levels of Knowledge Representation in Decision Making Original Research Article Pages 121-157 Patrick Humphreys, Dina Berkeley Verbal Vs. Numerical Processing of Subjective Probabilities Original Research Article Pages 159-182 Alf C. Zimmer Subjective Expected Utility: A Model of Decision-Making Original Research Article Pages 183-207 Baruch Fischhoff, Bernard Goitein, Zur Shapira Conditions of Violating Individual Rationality Original Research Article Pages 211-227 Werner H. Tack Biases in Group Decision Making Original Research Article Pages 229-252 Helmut W. Crott, Johannes A. Zuber The Dependence of Cognition and Behavior in 2X2 Matrice Games Original Research Article Pages 253-270 Ulrich Schulz, Theo May On the Prominence Structure of the Decimal System Original Research Article Pages 271-287 Wulf Albers, Glsela Albers Conceptual and Theoretical Issues in Developmental Research on the Acquisition of the Probability Concept Original Research Article Pages 291-311 Roland W. Scholz, Manfred Waller The Perception of Probability Situations in Pupils Aged 12 to 14 Original Research Article Pages 313-323 Georges Glaeser The Psychology of Inference and the Teaching of Probability and Statistics: Two Sides of The Same Coin? Original Research Article Pages 325-350 J. Michael Shaughnessy (Mis-) Interpretation of Stochastic Models Original Research Article Pages 351-361 Georg Schrage - Randomness and Stochastic Independence - on the Relationship Between Intuitive Motion Mathematical Definition Original Research Article Pages 363-373 Gerd V. Marten, Heinz Steinbring Decision-Theoretic Paradoxes Original Research Article Pages 375-383 Georg Pflug The Possible and the Profitable Some Remarks on the Symposium'S Impact on Decision Research Original Research Article Pages 387-389 Baruch Fischhoff The Importance of the Fictional for Theories of Knowledge Some Remarks on the Symposium'S Impact on Cognitive Psychology Original Research Article Pages 391-395 Alf C. Zimmer Why are Developmental Psychologists Biased with Regard to the Biasedness of the Human Subject?: Some Remarks on the Symposium'S Impact on Developmental Psychology Original Research Article Pages 397-401 Manfred Waller Individual Decision Making and Social Psychology: Some Remarks on the Symposium'S Impact on Social Psychology Original Research Article Pages 403-408 Katrin Borcherding Towards A Theory of Limited Rationality: Some Remarks on the Symposium'S Impact on Economic Theory Original Research Article Pages 409-412 Reinhard Selten Towards an Education for Decision Behavior: Some Remarks on the Symposium'S Impact on Mathematical Education Original Research Article Pages 413-419 Hans-Georgsteiner Steiner Addresses Pages 421,423-424 Abstracts Pages 427-435 Author Index Pages 439-445 This volume contains the revised papers of an international symposium on research on fallacies, biases, and the development of decision behavior under uncertainty. The papers are organized in five main sections.

The Introduction outlines the conceptual framework and how three of the sections - Cognitive Decision Research, Social Interaction, and Development and Epistemology - are interrelated and also how new fields, such as research into developmental questions, can be productively integrated.

In the fifth section Comments are collected, which evaluate the impact of the contributions on decision research itself, and also on cognitive psychology, social psychology, economic theory, ant the discipline of mathematics education.