Decision Making and Change in Human Affairs : Proceedings of the Fifth Research Conference on Subjective Probability, Utility, and Decision Making, Darmstadt, 1–4 September, 1975

It is only just recently that people have the tools to judge how well they are doing when making decisions. These tools were conceptualized in the seventeenth century. Since then many people have worked to sharpen the concepts, and to explore how these can be applied further. The problems of decision-making and the theory developed correspondingly have drawn the interest of mathematicians, psychologists, statisticians, economists, philosophers, organizational experts, sociologists, not only for their general relevance, but also for a more intrinsic fascination. There are quite a few institutionalized activities to disseminate results and stimulate research in decision-making. For about a decade now a European organizational structure, centered mainly around the psy­ chological interest in decision-making. There have been conferences in Hamburg, Amsterdam, Uxbridge, Rome and Darmstadt. Conference papers have been partly published+. The organization has thus stabilized, and its re­ latively long history makes it interesting to see what kind of developments occurred, within the area of interest. Front Matter....Pages I-XV Front Matter....Pages 1-1 Editor’s Introduction....Pages 3-5 Cognitive Processes and Societal Risk Taking....Pages 7-36 Cognitive Processes and Societal Risk Taking: Comments....Pages 37-43 The Use of Credible Intervals in Temperature Forecasting: Some Experimental Results....Pages 45-56 Decisions Concerning Job Choice....Pages 57-66 The Application of Multi-Attribute Utility Models to Some Uncertain Decision Situations in Areas of Business and Public Policy....Pages 67-80 Influence of Attribute Formulation on the Evaluation of Apartments by Multi-Attribute Utility Procedures....Pages 81-97 Modelling Preferences among Distributions Using Fuzzy Relations....Pages 99-114 Subjective Probability Elicitation: A Comparison of Performance Variables....Pages 115-126 Rewarding Expertise in Probability Assessment....Pages 127-140 The Psychology of the Ouija Board....Pages 141-157 Front Matter....Pages 159-159 Editor’s Introduction....Pages 161-163 Application of Multi-Attribute Utility Theory....Pages 165-207 Applications of Multi-Attribute Utility Theory: Comments....Pages 209-214 “Motivational” Components of Utility....Pages 215-230 Methods for Aggregating Opinions....Pages 231-255 Methods for Aggregating Opinions: Comments....Pages 257-262 The Continuous Ranked Probability Score in Practice....Pages 263-273 Calibration of Probabilities: The State of the Art....Pages 275-324 Calibration of Probabilities: The State of the Art/Comments....Pages 325-329 Front Matter....Pages 159-159 Consistency of Future Event Assessments....Pages 331-345 A Study of Intransitive Preferences using a Think Aloud Procedure....Pages 347-362 Front Matter....Pages 363-363 Editors’ Introduction....Pages 365-367 Measurement and Interpretation of Beliefs....Pages 369-393 Measurement and Interpretation of Beliefs: Comments....Pages 395-402 Decision Making and Cognition....Pages 403-424 Decision Making and Cognition: Comments....Pages 425-430 Cognitive Functions in Decision Making....Pages 431-444 Optimal Policies, Degradation, and Cognition....Pages 445-453 Optimal Policies, Degradation, and Cognition: Comments....Pages 455-459 Decision Making and Numerical Structuring....Pages 461-477 Bayesian Statistics and Efficient Information Processing Constrained by Probability Models....Pages 479-490 Praxiology and Decision Theory....Pages 491-506 Cultural Differences in Viewing Uncertainty and Assessing Probabilities....Pages 507-519 Back Matter....Pages 521-528 Proceedings of the Fifth Research Conference on Subjective Probability, Utility, and Decision Making, Darmstadt 1975