فصل مرگبار: تحلیل طوفان‌های ۲۰۱۱

In 2011, despite continued developments in forecasting, tracking, and warning technology, the United States was hit by the deadliest tornado season in decades. More than 1,200 tornadoes touched down, shattering communities and their safety nets and killing more than 500 peopleOCoa death toll unmatched since 1953. Drawing on the unique analysis described in their first book, Economic and Societal Impacts of Tornadoes, economists Kevin M. Simmons and Daniel Sutter here examine the factors that contributed to the outcomes of such tornadoes as the mid-April outbreak that devastated communities in North Carolina, the OC Super OutbreakOCO across the southern and eastern United States in late April, and the single, mile-wide funnel that touched down in Joplin, Missouri, among others, in late May. Title Page 3 Copyright Page 4 Table of Contents 5 FIGURES 7 TABLES 9 AUTHOR THANKS 10 Dedication Page 11 FOREWORD 12 1 THE 2011 TORNADO SEASON IN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE 15 1.1. An Overview of the Season 17 1.2. How Much of an Outlier Was 2011? 20 1.3. The Challenge for Researchers 25 1.4. Outline of the Book 27 2 SOUTHEASTERN VULNERABILITY AND THE APRIL 27–28 TORNADO OUTBREAK 30 2.1. Introduction: A Record Outbreak in the Wrong Place? 30 2.2. Patterns of Vulnerability in the Southeast 32 2.3. Comparing Southeastern Vulnerabilities to Other Regions 38 TORNADO CASUALTIES REGRESSIONS 39 2.4. Assessing the Record Outbreak 44 THE NORTH CAROLINA TORNADO OUTBREAK: A MORE TRADITIONAL SOUTHEASTER KILLER EVENT 45 2.5. Conclusion 47 3 EXTREME VULNERABILITY VERSUS EXTREME WEATHER IN THE 2011 SEASON 49 3.1. Warning Regression Model 50 3.2. Do Fatalities Regressions Anticipate the 2011 Death Tolls? 51 3.3. Projecting Fatalities Using Damage and Injuries 55 3.4. Conclusion 63 4 DOPPLER RADAR, WARNINGS, AND ELECTRIC POWER 66 4.1. Do Doppler Radar Effects Need To Be Revised? 67 4.2. Warnings and Power Outages 70 TORNADO SHELTERS—STILL NOT COST EFFECTIVE 73 4.3. Conclusion 77 5 RECOVERY FROM TORNADOES 79 5.1. Disaster Impacts and Evidence on Recovery from Tornadoes 80 5.2. Population Change after Significant Tornadoes 83 5.3. Case Study: The Tri-State Tornado 87 DO TORNADOES CAUSE LOCAL ECONOMIC BOOMS? 90 5.4. Tornadoes and the Local Economy 92 5.5. Conclusion 93 6 LESSONS LEARNED AND THE PATH FORWARD 95 6.1. Societal Vulnerabilities Highlighted by the 2011 Season 96 6.2. Can the Danger from Violent Tornadoes Be EfficientlyReduced? 99 REFERENCES 105 Chapter 1 105 Chapter 2 105 Chapter 3 106 Chapter 4 106 Chapter 5 107 Chapter 6 108 INDEX 109 In 2011, despite continued developments in forecasting, tracking, and warning technology, the United States was hit by the deadliest tornado season in decades. More than 1,200 tornadoes touched down, shattering communities and their safety nets, and killing more than 500 peoplea death toll unmatched since 1953. Drawing on the unique analysis described in their first book, Economic and Societal Impacts of Tornadoes , economists Kevin M. Simmons and Daniel Sutter here examine the factors that contributed to the outcomes of such tornadoes as the mid-April outbreak that devastated communities in North Carolina, the Super Outbreak across the southern and eastern United States in late April, and the single, mile-wide funnel that touched down in Joplin, Missouri, in late May. In the course of their study the authors identify patterns and anomalies, and reconsider previous assertions about the effectiveness of the Doppler radar and storm warning systems. Their conclusions, as well their assessment of early recovery efforts, are aimed at helping community leaders and policy-makers keep vulnerable populations safer in the future. Front Matter....Pages i-xv The 2011 Tornado Season in Historical Perspective....Pages 1-15 Southeastern Vulnerability and the April 27–28 Tornado Outbreak....Pages 17-35 Extreme Vulnerability versus Extreme Weather in the 2011 Season....Pages 37-53 Doppler Radar, Warnings, and Electric Power....Pages 55-67 Recovery from Tornadoes....Pages 69-84 Lessons Learned and the Path Forward....Pages 85-94 Back Matter....Pages 95-108 In 2011, despite continued developments in forecasting, tracking, and warning technology, the United States was hit by the deadliest tornado season in decades. This title examines the factors that contributed to the outcomes of such tornadoes as the mid-April outbreak that devastated communities in North Carolina.