Dark Skies : Space Expansionism, Planetary Geopolitics, and the Ends of Humanity

Space is again in the headlines. E-billionaires Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk are planning to colonize Mars. President Trump wants a "Space Force" to achieve "space dominance" with expensive high-tech weapons. The space and nuclear arms control regimes are threadbare and disintegrating. Would-be asteroid collision diverters, space solar energy collectors, asteroid miners, and space geo-engineers insistently promote their Earth-changing mega-projects. Given our many looming planetary catastrophes (from extreme climate change to runaway artificial superintelligence), looking beyond the earth for solutions might seem like a sound strategy for humanity. And indeed, bolstered by a global network of fervent space advocates-and seemingly rendered plausible, even inevitable, by oceans of science fiction and the wizardly of modern cinema-space beckons as a fully hopeful path for human survival and flourishing, a positive future in increasingly dark times. But despite even basic questions of feasibility, will these many space ventures really have desirable effects, as their advocates insist? In the first book to critically assess the major consequences of space activities from their origins in the 1940s to the present and beyond, Daniel Deudney argues in Dark Skies that the major result of the "Space Age" has been to increase the likelihood of global nuclear war, a fact conveniently obscured by the failure of recognize that nuclear-armed ballistic missiles are inherently space weapons. The most important practical finding of Space Age science, also rarely emphasized, is the discovery that we live on Oasis Earth, tiny and fragile, and teeming with astounding life, but surrounded by an utterly desolate and inhospitable wilderness stretching at least many trillions of miles in all directions. As he stresses, our focus must be on Earth and nowhere else. Looking to the future, Deudney provides compelling reasons why space colonization will produce new threats to human survival and not alleviate the existing ones. That is why, he argues, we should fully relinquish the quest. Mind-bending and profound, Dark Skies challenges virtually all received wisdom about the final frontier. "Dark Skies is the first work to assess the full impacts of space expansion, past, present and future. Thinking about space, and the visions fervently promoted by the global space movement, are dominated by geographic misperceptions and utopian illusions. The parts of space where almost all activity has occurred are part of the planet Earth, its astrosphere, and are, in practical terms, smaller than the atmosphere. Contrary to frontier visions, orbital space is already congested and degraded with dangerous space debris. The largest impact of actual space activities is an increased likelihood of catastrophic nuclear war stemming from the use of orbital space and space technology to lob nuclear weapons at intercontinental distances. Building large-scale orbital infrastructures will probably require or produce world government. The ultimate goal of space advocates, the colonization of Mars and asteroids, is promoted to guarantee the survival of humanity if major catastrophes strike Earth. But the spread of humanity into a multi-planet species will likely produce an interstate anarchy highly prone to total war, with Earth having many disadvantages. Altering the orbits of asteroids, a readily achievable technology vital for space colonization, also makes possible 'planetoid bombs' with destructive potentials millions of times great than all nuclear weapons. The biological diversification of humanity into multiple species, anticipated by space advocates, will further stoke interworld wars. Astrocide - the extinction of humanity resulting from significant space expansion - must join the lengthening list of potential threats to human survival. Large-scale space expansion should be relinquished in favour of an Earth-oriented space program of arms control and planetary security. Dark Skies is the first work to assess the full impacts of space expansion, past, present and future. Thinking about space, and the visions fervently promoted by the global space movement, are dominated by geographic misperceptions and utopian illusions. The parts of space where almost all activity has occurred are part of the planet Earth, its astrosphere, and are, in practical terms, smaller than the atmosphere. Contrary to frontier visions, orbital space is already congested and degraded with dangerous space debris. The largest impact of actual space activities is an increased likelihood of catastrophic nuclear war stemming from the use of orbital space and space technology to lob nuclear weapons at intercontinental distances. Building large-scale orbital infrastructures will probably require or produce world government. The ultimate goal of space advocates, the colonization of Mars and asteroids, is promoted to guarantee the survival of humanity if major catastrophes strike Earth. But the spread of humanity into a multi-planet species will likely produce an interstate anarchy highly prone to total war, with Earth having many disadvantages. Altering the orbits of asteroids, a readily achievable technology vital for space colonization, also makes possible 'planetoid bombs' with destructive potentials millions of times great than all nuclear weapons. The biological diversification of humanity into multiple species, anticipated by space advocates, will further stoke interworld wars. Astrocide - the extinction of humanity resulting from significant space expansion - must join the lengthening list of potential threats to human survival. Large-scale space expansion should be relinquished in favour of an Earth-oriented space program of arms control and planetary security"-- Provided by publisher Space is again in the headlines. E-billionaires Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk are planning to colonize Mars. President Trump wanted a'Space Force'to achieve'space dominance'with expensive high-tech weapons. The space and nuclear arms control regimes are threadbare and disintegrating. Would-be asteroid collision diverters, space solar energy collectors, asteroid miners, and space geo-engineers insistently promote their Earth-changing mega-projects. Given our many looming planetary catastrophes (from extreme climate change to runaway artificial superintelligence), looking beyond the earth for solutions might seem like a sound strategy for humanity. And indeed, bolstered by a global network of fervent space advocates-and seemingly rendered plausible, even inevitable, by oceans of science fiction and the wizardly of modern cinema-space beckons as a fully hopeful path for human survival and flourishing, a positive future in increasingly dark times. But despite even basic questions of feasibility, will these many space ventures really have desirable effects, as their advocates insist? In the first book to critically assess the major consequences of space activities from their origins in the 1940s to the present and beyond, Daniel Deudney argues in Dark Skies that the major result of the'Space Age'has been to increase the likelihood of global nuclear war, a fact conveniently obscured by the failure of recognize that nuclear-armed ballistic missiles are inherently space weapons. The most important practical finding of Space Age science, also rarely emphasized, is the discovery that we live on Oasis Earth, tiny and fragile, and teeming with astounding life, but surrounded by an utterly desolate and inhospitable wilderness stretching at least many trillions of miles in all directions. As he stresses, our focus must be on Earth and nowhere else. Looking to the future, Deudney provides compelling reasons why space colonization will produce new threats to human survival and not alleviate the existing ones. That is why, he argues, we should fully relinquish the quest. Mind-bending and profound, Dark Skies challenges virtually all received wisdom about the final frontier. Space is again in the headlines. E-billionaires Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk are planning to colonize Mars. President Trump wants a "Space Force" to achieve "space dominance" with expensive high-tech weapons. The space and nuclear arms control regimes are threadbare and disintegrating.0Would-be asteroid collision diverters, space solar energy collectors, asteroid miners, and space geo-engineers insistently promote their Earth-changing mega-projects. Given our many looming planetary catastrophes (from extreme climate change to runaway artificial superintelligence), looking beyond the earth for solutions might seem like a sound strategy for humanity. And indeed, bolstered by a global network of fervent space advocates-and seemingly rendered plausible, even inevitable, by oceans0of science fiction and the wizardly of modern cinema-space beckons as a fully hopeful path for human survival and flourishing, a positive future in increasingly dark times.0But despite even basic questions of feasibility, will these many space ventures really have desirable effects, as their advocates insist? In the first book to critically assess the major consequences of space activities from their origins in the 1940s to the present and beyond, Daniel Deudney argues in Dark Skies that the major result of the "Space Age" has been to increase the likelihood of global nuclear war, a fact conveniently obscured by the failure of recognize that nuclear-armed ballistic missiles are inherently space weapons. The most important practical finding of Space Age science, also rarely emphasized, is the discovery that we live on Oasis Earth, tiny and fragile, and teeming with astounding life, but surrounded by an utterly desolate and inhospitable wilderness stretching at least many trillions of miles in all directions Dedication 6 Contents 8 List of Tables and Figures 10 Acknowledgments 12 Prologue: Machine Civilization and the Transformation of the Earth 14 PART ONE: THE EARTH, TECHNOLOGY, AND SPACE 22 1. The Promise of Space Revisited 24 2. Questions, Debates, and Frameworks 47 PART TWO: GEOGRAPHIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL HORIZONS 84 3. New Heavens, New Earth 86 4. Technological Imaginaries, Feasibilities, Syndromes, and Catastrophes 125 PART THREE: SPACE EXPANSIONISM 164 5. Absolute Weapons, Lightning Wars, and Ultimate Positions 166 6. Limitless Frontiers, Spaceship Earths, and Higher Humanities 202 7. Superpower Restraints, Planetary Security, and Earth Identity 246 PART FOUR: ASSESSMENT 282 8. Geography, Geopolitics, and Geohisto 284 9. Earth Space, Planetary Geopolitics, and World Governments 322 10. Solar Space, Island Earth, and the Ends of Humanity 352 Conclusion:'Space for Earth 387 Notes 404 Index 446 Dark Skies provides the first comprehensive and balanced assessment of the space enterprise, past, present and future. It demolishes widely-held optimistic assumptions about the desirability of many major space activities, actual and prospective. Most consequentially, the hiding-in-plain-sight use of outer space as a corridor for long-range bombardment has increased the probability of catastrophic nuclear war. Contrary to the widespread claim thatsustainable colonies on other celestial bodies are necessary for human survival from large-scale disasters on Earth, Dark Skies shows that colonization itself poses many severe threats and should be avoided. Instead an Earth-oriented space program should be pursued. 'dark Skies' Provides A Comprehensive And Balanced Assessment Of The Space Enterprise, Past, Present And Future. It Demolishes Widely-held Optimistic Assumptions About The Desirability Of Many Major Space Activities, Actual And Prospective. Most Consequentially, The Hiding-in-plain-sight Use Of Outer Space As A Corridor For Long-range Bombardment Has Increased The Probability Of Catastrophic Nuclear War. Contrary To The Widespread Claim That Sustainable Colonies On Other Celestial Bodies Are Necessary For Human Survival From Large-scale Disasters On Earth, This Work Shows That Colonization Itself Poses Many Severe Threats And Should Be Avoided. Instead An Earth-oriented Space Program Should Be Pursued.