سقوط‌ها، بحران‌ها و فاجعه‌ها: چگونه می‌توانیم از علم برای خواندن نشانه‌های هشدار اولیه استفاده کنیم

Why do certain civilizations, societies, and ecosystems collapse? How does the domino effect relate to the credit crunch? When can mathematics help explain marriage? And how on earth do toads predict earthquakes? The future is uncertain. But science can help foretell what lies ahead. Drawing on ecology and biology, math and physics, Crashes, Crises, and Calamities offers four fundamental tools that scientists and engineers use to forecast the likelihood of sudden change: stability, catastrophe, complexity, and game theories. In accessible prose, Len Fisher demonstrates how we can foresee and manage events that might otherwise catch us by surprise. At the cutting edge of science, Fisher helps us find ways to act before a full-fledged catastrophe is upon us. Crashes, Crises, and Calamities is a witty and informative exploration of the chaos, complexity, and patterns of our daily lives. Pt. 1. A potted pre-history of prognostication. Do animals have crystal balls? The future eclipsed Galileo's hell Pt. 2. How disasters happen. The stress of it all Runaway disaster The balance of nature and the nature of balance Pt. 3. Imminent catastrophes : reading the signs. The chaotic ecology of dragons Teetering on the brink of catastrophe Models and supermodels Beware of mathematicians Weak signals as major early-warning signs Summary : The future of forecasting. Drawing on ecology and biology, math and physics, the author offers four fundamental tools that scientists and engineers use to forecast the likelihood of sudden change: stability, catastrophe, complexity, and game theories. Master of popular science Len Fisher is back again, to shed new light on how we can predict catastrophe and avoid disaster