Coups, Rivals, and the Modern State : Why Rural Coalitions Matter in Sub-Saharan Africa

State development in Africa is risky, even life-threatening. Heads of state must weigh the advantage of promoting political and economic development against the risk of fortifying dangerous political rivals. This book takes a novel approach to the study of neopatrimonial rule by placing security concerns at the center of state-building. Using quantitative evidence from 44 African countries and in-depth case studies of Ghana and Cote d'Ivoire, Rabinowitz demonstrates that the insecurities of the African state make strategically aligning with rural leaders critical to political success. Leaders who cultivate the goodwill of the countryside are better able to endure sporadic urban unrest, subdue political challengers, minimize ethnic and regional discord, and prevent a military uprising. Such regimes are more likely to build infrastructure needed for economic and political development. In so doing, Rabinowitz upends the long-held assumption that African leaders must cater to urban constituents to secure their rule. Over The Past Three Decades, Sub-saharan Africa Has Undergone Promising Changes. Most Countries Have Instituted Regular Multiparty Elections. Military Rule Has Been On A Steady Decline. With This Increased Stability, Africa Has Seen Unparalleled Economic Growth. So Much So That Sub-saharan Growth Rates Exceeded Those Of The World Economy For The First Two Decades Of The New Millennium. Yet, There Are Troubling Trends As Well. The Vast Majority Of Low-income Countries Are Found South Of The Sahara. African States Grapple With Food Insecurity, High Unemployment, Poverty, Poor Infrastructure, Environmental Degradation, And Low Integration In The Global Economy. Nor Has Political Liberalization Been Wholly Progressive. One-third Of The States Identified As 'not Free' In 2017 By Freedom House Were In Sub-saharan Africa. In Many Instances, African Presidents Have Been Able To Work Around Multi-party Elections And Remain In Power For Two, Three, In Some Cases Even Four Decades. Countries Like Burundi, South Sudan, Somalia, And The Central African Republic Have Continued To Be On The Precipice Of Civil Conflict. And Although There Are Fewer Coups, Since 2000 Fourteen Presidents Have Been Successfully Overthrown.--publisher's Summary. Introduction -- Part I. Setting The Stage. -- A New Theory Of Coalition Politics -- Patterns Of Rule In Africa -- Rural Alliances And Coup Risk : Testing The Theory. -- Part Ii. Forging Coalitions. -- Alienating Rural Allies -- Kwame Nkrumah 1947-1957 -- Aligning With Regional Foes -- Felix Houphouet-boigny 1945-1960. -- Part Iii. Consolidating Power. -- An Urban Strategy Unravels -- Kwame Nkrumah 1957-1966 -- A Rural Strategy Builds A Nation -- Felix Houphouet-boigny 1960-1980. -- Part Iv. Reversal Of Fortune. -- Reviving The State -- J.j. Rawlings 1979-1999 -- Losing The Periphery -- Henri Konan Bedie 1980-1999 -- Structure Not Strategy? Examining Alternative Explanations -- Conclusion. Beth S. Rabinowitz. Includes Bibliographical References (pages 246-296) And Index. Cover 1 Half-title page 3 Title page 5 Copyright page 6 Dedication 7 Contents 9 List of Figures 11 List of Tables 12 List of Plates 13 Acknowledgements 14 Introduction 15 Part I Setting the Stage 21 1 A New Theory of Coalition Politics 23 2 Patterns of Rule in Africa 46 3 Rural Alliances and Coup Risk: Testing the Theory 66 Part II Forging Coalitions 87 4 Alienating Rural Allies – Kwame Nkrumah 1947–1957 89 5 Aligning with Regional Foes – Félix Houphouët-Boigny 1945–1960 109 Part III Consolidating Power 125 6 An Urban Strategy Unravels – Kwame Nkrumah 1957–1966 127 Plates 131 7 A Rural Strategy Builds a Nation – Félix Houphouët-Boigny 1960–1980 162 Part IV Reversal of Fortune 189 8 Reviving the State – J. J. Rawlings 1979–1999 191 9 Losing the Periphery – Henri Konan Bédié 1980–1999 219 10 Structure Not Strategy? Examining Alternative Explanations 245 Conclusion 258 Bibliography 268 Index 319