Countering Insurgencies and Violent Extremism in South and South East Asia (Cass Military Studies)

"This volume of case studies examines the rise in violent extremism, terrorism and insurgency in South and South East Asia, and subsequent state responses. The South and South East of Asia has experienced various forms of extremism and violence for years, with a growing demand for academic or policy-relevant work that will enhance understanding of the reasons behind this. The violent challenges in this area have taken a variety of forms and are often exacerbated by lack of governance, tie-ins to existing regional criminal networks, colonial legacies and a presence of international terrorist movements. Written by experts with field experience, this volume analyzes the key element of successful response as the appropriate application of doctrine following nuanced assessment of threat. In practice, this often means counterinsurgency doctrine. The essays also analyze the need for irregular war practitioners to systematically examine the changing character of intrastate violent irregular challenges. The volume fills a gap in the understanding of patterns, drivers, organizations and ideologies of various insurgent and terrorist groups, and state responses. It also provides a set of recommendations for addressing the unfolding situation. This book will be of much interest to students of terrorism and political violence, counterinsurgency and counterterrorism, Asian politics and security studies in general"--page [i] Cover 1 Half Title 2 Series Page 3 Title Page 4 Copyright Page 5 Table of Contents 6 List of Illustrations 9 List of Contributors 10 Introduction: Understanding insurgencies and violent extremism in South and South East Asia 14 Understanding insurgencies, terrorism, violent extremism and irregular warfare 14 This volume 21 Emerging challenges 21 Cautious optimism – or false dawn? 22 Quagmires 24 Victory? 25 Future pathways 26 Notes 26 Bibliography 27 Part I: Emerging challenges 28 Chapter 1: Countering the Islamic State in Asia 30 Introduction 30 Caliphate calling 31 Islamic State’s failure in Asia 36 Eliminating the Islamic State in Asia 39 The Islamic State’s future in Asia 41 Conclusion 42 Notes 44 Bibliography 45 Chapter 2: The Philippines’ counter-terror conundrum: Marawi and Duterte’s battle against the Islamic State 52 Introduction 52 IS pivot to the Philippines 53 IS pivot to Asia 56 Philippines counter-terror infrastructure 60 Looming challenges 64 Notes 67 Bibliography 69 Chapter 3: The evolution of violent extremism and state response in Indonesia 72 Introduction 72 Indonesia’s fractured nationalism and the persistence of Islamic opposition 73 The evolving threat from Islamic extremism in Indonesia 74 1999–2009: Jemaah Islamiyah and the first phase of Islamic extremism 75 Nature of the threat 75 2016–present: ISIS and the second phase of Islamic extremism 79 The future of countering violent extremism in Indonesia 83 Conclusion 84 Notes 85 References 86 Chapter 4: The Rohingya and Myanmar’s counter terrorism approach 89 The attacks 89 Examining ARSA 90 Counter terrorism strategy 92 The State response 93 Overwhelming and disproportionate force 94 ARSA presented as a large jihadist organization with global links 96 Using the civilian government as a shield 97 Persecute the messenger 98 The future 99 Notes 100 References 101 Chapter 5: Emerging violent radical Islamism in the Maldives 104 Introduction 104 Defining the problem 105 Roots of conflict 106 Losing the battle of the narrative 110 Threat strategy 112 Present Maldivian response 115 Conclusion 115 Notes 116 Bibliography 117 Part II: Cautious optimism – or false dawn? 120 Chapter 6: Back to the future: Nepali people’s war as “new war” 122 Maoist methodology: the period of overt war (1996–2006) 123 Maoist methodology: the period of covert war 132 Maoist methodology: covert war becomes “new war” 142 Conclusion 147 Notes 149 Bibliography 159 Chapter 7: India’s two-track response to the Naxalite movement: Security and development, but no political process 166 The roots of the Naxalite movement 167 The strategy of managing multi-tracked responses to insurgency 169 The predominant tracks of India’s response: security and development 171 Explaining relative the lack of progress along a political track 173 Conclusions 176 Notes 177 Bibliography 179 Chapter 8: Delimiting an Indian strategic approach to counterinsurgency 181 Introduction 181 Indian counterinsurgency strategic approach 182 Cases of counterinsurgency success 184 Mizoram 184 Punjab 186 Tripura 188 Andhra Pradesh 189 Parameters of engagement 191 Explaining festering conflicts 192 A lead counterinsurgent force 193 Gaining popular support 194 A question of human rights 195 Preparing ground for a political solution 197 Conclusion 198 Notes 199 Bibliography 201 Chapter 9: Countering violent extremism: The Singapore experience 204 Introduction 204 The threat of JI in Singapore 205 Responding to JI: operational and strategic approaches 206 Singapore’s unique counter-ideological program 207 Religious counseling for detained JI members 208 The religious rehabilitation group (RRG) 208 Responding to the ideological threat of ISIS 209 The inter-agency aftercare group (ACG) 211 Islamic religious council of Singapore (MUIS) 212 Lessons learnt from the Singapore experience 213 Importance of countering extremist ideology 214 Government and community partnership 215 Role of civil society and non-governmental organizations 215 Conclusion 215 Notes 216 Bibliography 217 Chapter 10: Challenges in counter terrorism and counter violent extremism in Malaysia 219 Current threats 219 Re-emerging threats: Jemaah Islamiyah in Malaysia 221 Roots of radicalization in Malaysia 221 Islamization in Malaysia 223 Promoting moderation 226 State responses 226 Counter-terrorism laws 227 Ideological approaches and concerns 229 Policing and law enforcement 230 Civil society engagement 231 Conclusion 231 Notes 233 Bibliography 234 Part III: Quagmires 236 Chapter 11: The counterinsurgency quandary in post-2001 Afghanistan 238 1 Introduction 238 2 The challenge 239 2.1 Insurgent structure, organization, linkages 239 2.2 Factors aiding the insurgency 240 2.3 Changing character of the insurgency 241 3 Afghan counterinsurgency approach 242 3.1 The legacy of previous Afghan governments 242 3.2 The ISAF legacy 243 3.3 Post-ISAF Afghan counterinsurgency 245 4 Conclusion 249 Notes 250 Bibliography 252 Chapter 12: Insurgency and violent extremism in Pakistan 255 Introduction 255 Anti-state groups 256 Insurgent and foreign groups 256 Jihadi and other extremist organizations 258 Counterterrorism and counterinsurgency 259 Strategies 259 Military operations 260 Operation Zarb-e-Azb 262 Ongoing security concerns: from North Waziristan to Punjab 264 Signs of a new realism 265 Looking ahead 267 Conclusion 270 Notes 270 References 271 Chapter 13: Counterinsurgency in Pakistan: The role of legitimacy 274 Background to the insurgency 274 Background to the counterinsurgency 275 Chief errors 277 The offensives against the Pakistani Taliban 279 Lessons of the Pakistani campaigns 281 Notes 284 Bibliography 286 Chapter 14: Thailand’s south: Roots of conflict 289 Search for roots of conflict 290 Contending narratives 292 Conclusion 294 Notes 295 Bibliography 296 Part IV: Victory? 298 Chapter 15: Size still matters: Explaining Sri Lanka’s counterinsurgency victory over the Tamil Tigers 300 Introduction 300 Conflict background 301 Evaluating competing explanations 304 Force employment 304 Insurgent attributes 307 Leadership 310 An alternative explanation of material preponderance 311 Manpower and resources 311 Exogenously driven material changes 313 A quantitative analysis of material preponderance 314 Conclusion 320 Findings 320 Implications 321 Acknowledgments 321 Notes 322 References 324 Chapter 16: Sri Lanka: State response to Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam 329 Initial reaction to “terrorist” challenge 330 Transformation of threat 337 Transformation of response 344 Lessons in an era of “New War” 346 Notes 348 Bibliography 358 Conclusion: Framing effective responses and future pathways 366 Emerging challenges 367 The continuing threat of the Islamic State (IS) 367 Re-emerging threats 368 Changing character of insurgency 369 External funding, sanctuaries, and transnational linkages 369 Vulnerability of multi-ethnic societies and governance deficits 370 Effective responses 370 Possibility of victory? 374 Notes 376 Bibliography 376 Index 378 This volume of case studies examines the rise in violent extremism, terrorism and insurgency in South and South East Asia, and subsequent state responses.0The South and South East of Asia has experienced various forms of extremism and violence for years, with a growing demand for academic or policy-relevant work that will enhance understanding of the reasons behind this. The violent challenges in this area have taken a variety of forms and are often exacerbated by lack of governance, tie-ins to existing regional criminal networks, colonial legacies and a presence of international terrorist movements. Written by experts with field experience, this volume analyzes the key element of successful response as the appropriate application of doctrine following nuanced assessment of threat. In practice, this often means counterinsurgency doctrine. The essays also analyze the need for irregular war practitioners to systematically examine the changing character of intrastate violent irregular challenges. The volume fills a gap in the understanding of patterns, drivers, organizations and ideologies of various insurgent and terrorist groups, and state responses. It also provides a set of recommendations for addressing the unfolding situation. 0This book will be of much interest to students of terrorism and political violence, counterinsurgency and counterterrorism, Asian politics and security studies in general