Coal : medium-term market report 2013 : market trends and projections to 2018

The Medium-Term Coal Market Report-2013 provides IEA forecasts on coal markets for the coming five years as well as an in-depth analysis of recent developments in global coal demand, supply and trade. This third annual report shows that while coal continues to be a growing source of primary energy worldwide, its future is increasingly tied to developments in non-OECD countries, led by China. Coal is both the leading fuel source behind the growth of non-OECD countries and the leading source of power generation in OECD countries. Yet the current low prices for coal add a new challenge to the sec. Read more... Coal, Energy Projections, Energy Security Medium-Term Coal Market Report 2013 1 Foreword 5 Acknowledgements 7 Table of contents 8 List of Figures 10 List of Maps 11 List of Tables 11 List of Boxes 12 Executive Summary 13 The never-ending story 13 Coal is becoming cheaper 13 Demand: from a quick step to a slow march 14 OECD: coal is not over yet 14 Coal lights up non-OECD countries 15 In the end, it is all about China 15 1. Recent trends in demand and supply 16 Summary 16 Demand 16 OECD demand trends 17 Power sector 19 Non-power sector 20 Regional focus: United States 21 Non-OECD demand trends 23 Power sector 24 Non-power sector 25 Regional focus: India 26 Supply 28 OECD supply trends 29 Non-OECD supply trends 30 Special focus: coal supply in India 31 Special focus: met coal in Russia 36 References 38 2. Recent trends in international coal trading 40 Summary 40 The seaborne hard coal market 40 Seaborne thermal coal trade 40 Seaborne met coal trade 42 Regional analysis 43 Exporters 43 Indonesia 43 Australia 44 Russia 44 United States 44 Colombia 45 South Africa 46 Canada 47 Other countries 47 Importers 47 China 47 Japan 48 India 48 Korea 48 Europe 49 Others 50 Special focus: coal transportation in Russia 50 Coal trading 53 Regional analysis 54 United States 54 China 54 Derivatives 55 Prices 55 Seaborne thermal coal prices and regional arbitrage 57 Seaborne met coal prices 65 Coal forward prices 65 Coal supply costs 68 Development of input factor prices 68 Currency exchange rates 71 Dry bulk shipping market 72 Development of coal supply costs 74 References 76 3. Medium-term projections of demand and supply 78 Summary 78 Introduction 78 Assumptions 79 Projections of global coal demand in the BCS 81 OECD coal demand projection, 2013-18 81 Thermal coal and lignite demand 81 Met coal demand 82 Non-OECD coal demand projection, 2013-18 83 Thermal coal and lignite demand 83 Met coal demand 88 Projections of global coal demand in alternative scenarios (CLDC and IHDC) 91 Projections of global coal demand in the CLDC, 2013-18 91 Projections of global coal demand in the IHDC, 2013-18 92 Projections of global coal supply 92 Thermal coal and lignite supply projection, 2013-18 92 Met coal supply projection, 2013-18 93 References 96 4. Medium-term projections of seaborne coal trade 97 Summary 97 Assumptions and methodology 97 Seaborne trade in the BCS 98 Seaborne thermal coal trade projection, 2013-18 99 Seaborne met coal trade projection, 2013-18 102 Seaborne thermal coal trade projections in alternative scenarios, 2013-18 105 The CLDC 105 The IHDC 107 References 109 5. Export capacity investment outlook 110 Summary 110 Investment in export mining capacity 110 Investment in export infrastructure capacity 113 Regional analysis 113 Australia 113 Colombia 115 South Africa 116 Mozambique 117 Russia 118 Indonesia 118 Canada 119 United States 120 References 123 Annex 124 Glossary 136 Regional and country groupings 136 Africa 136 China 136 Europe and Mediterranean 136 Latin America 136 Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia 136 North Africa 136 OECD 136 OECD Americas 136 OECD Asia Oceania 136 OECD Europe 137 Other developing Asia 137 Acronyms, abbreviations and units of measure 137 Acronyms and abbreviations 137 Currency codes 138 Units of measure 138