Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation in Asia and the Pacific : Manila, Philippines, 15–19 January 1996

PREFACE ix ACKNOWLEDGMENTS xi L. AMADORE, W. C. BOLHOFER, R. V. CRUZ, R. B. FEIR, C. A. FREYSINGER, S. GUILL, K. F. JALAL, A IGLESIAS, A. JOSE, S. LEATHERMAN, S. LENHART, S. MUKHER­ JEE, J. B. SMITH, and J. WISNIEWSKII Climate Change Vulnerability and Adap­ tion in Asia and the Pacific: Workshop Summary 1-12 A. IGLESIAS, LlN ERDA, and C. ROSENZWEIG I Climate Change in Asia: A Review of the Vulnerability and Adaption of Crop Production 13-27 I. AMIEN, P. REJEKININGRUM, A. PRAMUDIA, and E. SUSANTII Effects of Interannual Climate Variability and Climate Change on Rice Yield in Java, Indonesia 29-39 R. D. BUAN, AR. MAGLlNAO, P. P. EVANGELISTA, and B. G. PAJUELAS I Vulnerability of Rice and Corn to Climate Change in the Philippines 41-51 Z. KARIM, S. G. HUSSAIN, and M. AHMED I Assessing Impacts of Climatic Variations on Foodgrain Production in Bangladesh 53-62 LlN ERDA I Agricultural Vulnerability and Adaptation to Global Warming in China 63-73 WANG JINGHUA and LlN ERDA I The Impacts of Potential Climate Change and Climate Variability on Simulated Maize Production in China 75-85 M. A. WIJERATNE I Vulnerability of Sri Lanka Tea Production to Global Climate Change 87-94 B. BOLORTSETSEG and G. TUVAANSUREN I The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Pasture and Cattle Production in Mongolia 95-105 K. BOONPRAGOB and J. SANTISIRISOMBOON I Modeling Potential Changes of Forest Area in Thailand under Climate Change 107-117 K. 1. KOBAK, I. YE. TURCHINOVICH, N. YU. KONDRASHEVA, E. -D. SCHULZE, W. Front Matter....Pages i-xi Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation in Asia and the Pacific: Workshop Summary....Pages 1-12 Climate Change in Asia: A Review of the Vulnerability and Adaptation of Crop Production....Pages 13-27 Effects of Interannual Climate Variability and Climate Change on Rice Yield in Java, Indonesia....Pages 29-39 Vulnerability of Rice and Corn to Climate Change in the Philippines....Pages 41-51 Assessing Impacts of Climatic Variations on Foodgrain Production in Bangladesh....Pages 53-62 Agricultural Vulnerability and Adaptation to Global Warming in China....Pages 63-73 The Impacts of Potential Climate Change and Climate Variability on Simulated Maize Production in China....Pages 75-85 Vulnerability of Sri Lanka Tea Production to Global Climate Change....Pages 87-94 The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Pasture and Cattle Production in Mongolia....Pages 95-105 Modeling Potential Changes of Forest Area in Thailand under Climate Change....Pages 107-117 Vulnerability and Adaptation of the Larch Forest in Eastern Siberia to Climate Change....Pages 119-127 Potential Impact of Global Climate Change on Forest Distribution in Sri Lanka....Pages 129-135 Potential Impacts of Sea Level Rise on the Coastal Resources of Manila Bay: A Preliminary Vulnerability Assessment....Pages 137-147 Shoreline Stabilization Approaches in Response to Sea Level Rise: U.S. Experience and Implications for Pacific Island and Asian Nations....Pages 149-157 Tropical Cyclones and Coastal Inundation under Enhanced Greenhouse Conditions....Pages 159-169 Vulnerability of Bangladesh to Climate Change and Sea Level Rise through Tropical Cyclones and Storm Surges....Pages 171-179 Vulnerability and Adaptation of Hong Kong to Hazards under Climatic Change Conditions....Pages 181-190 Vulnerability Assessment of Angat Water Reservoir to Climate Change....Pages 191-201 Vulnerability of Freshwater Resources to Climate Change in the Tropical Pacific Region....Pages 203-213 Integrated Model Systems for National Assessments of the Effects of Climate Change: Applications in New Zealand and Bangladesh....Pages 215-227 A Process for Evaluating Anticipatory Adaptation Measures for Climate Change....Pages 229-238 Back Matter....Pages 239-249 The Regional Workshop on Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation in Asia and the Pacific, held in Manila on 15-19 January 1996. The workshop focused on climate vulnerability and adaptation studies ongoing in the Pacific Rim countries and oceanic island states. The articles prepared for this volume are representative of the many excellent papers presented at the workshop, which addressed climate change vulnerability and adaptation issues ranging from boreal forest changes in northern Asia to sea level rise in the Pacific Islands. Island nations in Asia and the Pacific are intimately tied to their oceanic environment, geographically and culturally. The greatest vulnerability within the region might result from sea level rise - a subtle process accelerated by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Resulting changes to the climate regime may also alter the frequency and intensity of typhoons and monsoons, which so many Asian and Pacific economies depend on for water resources. The demand for surface water increases daily to support ever-growing populations, increased agricultural activities, and expanding modem urban infrastructure. The cumulative essence of these papers, and others of similar theme, is that we, as individual nations and as a region, are not immune to the effects of global warning. Sea level rise, fresh water supply, and food production - particularly rice - appear to be the predominant concerns for Asia and the Pacific region