Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Water Resources and Water Use Sectors: Case studies from Southeast Asia (Springer Water)

Climate change on earth is having significant impacts on water resources management in Southeast Asia. Knowledge of climate variations and climate change can be valuable for water resources management in agriculture, urban and industrial water supplies, hydroelectric power generation, and ecosystem maintenance. This book presents the findings of case studies on forecasting climate change and its impacts on water availability, irrigation water requirements, floods and droughts, reservoir inflows and hydropower generation, and crop yield in specific basins of Southeast Asian countries such as Thailand, Myanmar, and Vietnam. All case studies start by forecasting the climate change and investigating its impacts by employing several hydrological reservoir simulations and crop water requirement models. The findings provide sound and scientific advice for water managers on the real impacts of climate change and how to adapt to its many challenges. Foreword 6 Acknowledgments 8 Contents 9 About the Author 12 Abbreviations 13 1 Introduction 15 References 20 2 Assessment of Water Availability Under Climate Change Scenarios in Thailand 22 Abstract 22 2.1emspIntroduction 22 2.2emspStudy Area 24 2.3emspMethodology 24 2.3.1 Data Collection 24 2.3.1.1 Hydro-meteorological Data 24 2.3.1.2 Future Climate Data 25 2.3.1.3 Other Data 26 2.3.2 Methodological Framework 26 2.3.3 Ratio Method of Bias Correction 27 2.3.4 Hydrological Model 28 2.4emspResults and Discussion 28 2.4.1 Comparison of RCM and Bias Corrected Values 28 2.4.2 Projected Rainfall Anomalies 29 2.4.3 Calibration and Validation of HEC-HMS 30 2.4.4 Projection of Decadal Water Availability at HRU Scale 30 2.4.5 Projection of Decadal Water Availability at National Scale 33 2.5emspConclusions 34 References 35 3 Climate Change Impact on Reservoir Inflows of Ubolratana Dam in Thailand 37 Abstract 37 3.1emspIntroduction 37 3.2emspStudy Area 38 3.2.1 Characteristics of Ubolratana Dam 39 3.2.2 Flood Problems in Ubolratana Reservoir 39 3.2.3 Data Collection 40 3.3emspMethodology 40 3.3.1 Extraction of Climate Projection Data 41 3.3.2 Bias Correction 42 3.3.3 Hydrological Model 42 3.4emspResults and Discussion 44 3.4.1 Performance of Bias Correction for RCM Data 44 3.4.2 Projection of Rainfall 46 3.4.3 Projection of Temperature 47 3.4.4 Runoff Modelling 48 3.4.4.1 Model Setup 48 3.4.4.2 Future Runoff Projection 48 3.4.4.3 RRV Analysis for Future Climate 50 3.5emspConclusions 51 References 52 4 Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Flood Hazard Potential in the Yang River Basin, Thailand 54 Abstract 54 4.1emspIntroduction 54 4.2emspMaterials and Methods 56 4.2.1 Study Area and Data Description 56 4.2.2 SRES Scenarios and GCMs 58 4.2.3 Bias Correction of RCM Data 59 4.2.4 Goodness-of-Fit Indicators of RCM Outputs 59 4.2.4.1 Coefficient of Determination (R2) 59 4.2.4.2 Volume Bias (VB) 59 4.2.4.3 Index of Agreement (d) 60 4.2.5 Hydrological Modelling 60 4.2.6 Frequency Analysis and Designed Hydrographs 61 4.2.7 Hydraulic Modelling 62 4.2.8 Flood Frequency Analysis 63 4.2.9 Flood Hazard Mapping 63 4.2.10 Change Analysis 63 4.3emspResults and Discussion 64 4.3.1 Model Performance Evaluation 64 4.3.1.1 Performance of Bias Correction of RCM Data 64 4.3.1.2 Performance of the BTOPMC 65 4.3.1.3 Performance of Hydrological Analysis and Design 65 4.3.1.4 Performance of HEC-RAS Model 69 4.3.2 Projected Changes in Floods 70 4.3.2.1 Flood Inundated Areas for Baseline Period (1980–2009) 70 4.3.2.2 Changes in Future Flood Inundation Area 71 4.4emspConclusions 74 Acknowledgements 74 References 74 5 Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Irrigation Water Requirement and Rice Yield for Ngamoeyeik Irrigation Project in Myanmar 78 Abstract 78 5.1emspIntroduction 78 5.2emspStudy Area 80 5.3emspMaterials and Methods 81 5.3.1 Field Layout and Measurements 82 5.3.2 Climate Change Scenario Generation 84 5.3.3 Transferring Coarse Resolution Climate Data to Basin Level 85 5.3.4 AquaCrop 4.0 85 5.4emspResults and Discussion 87 5.4.1 Simulated and Observed Climate Data 87 5.4.2 Projection of Future Climate Variables 89 5.4.2.1 Projection of Future Temperature 89 5.4.2.2 Projection of Future Precipitation 90 5.4.3 Crop Model Set up 92 5.4.4 Projection of Future Irrigation Water Requirement (IWR) 97 5.4.5 Projection of Future Rainfed Paddy Yield 98 5.5emspConclusions 99 References 100 6 Adaptation Strategies for Rice Cultivation Under Climate Change in Central Vietnam 103 Abstract 103 6.1emspIntroduction 104 6.2emspMaterial and Methods 105 6.2.1 Study Area Description 105 6.2.2 Data Collection 106 6.2.3 Generation of Climate Change Scenarios 109 6.2.4 Crop Modeling 111 6.2.5 Agro-adaptation Measures 111 6.2.6 Methodological Limitations 112 6.3emspResults and Discussion 112 6.3.1 SDSM Calibration and Validation 112 6.3.2 Projection of Future Climate 113 6.3.2.1 Estimation of Future Temperature 113 6.3.2.2 Projection of Future Precipitation 115 6.3.3 Projection of Climate Change Impact on Rice Yield 116 6.3.3.1 Sensitivity Analysis of the AquaCrop Model 116 6.3.3.2 Calibration of the AquaCrop Model 116 6.3.3.3 Impact of Climate Change on Rice Yield 117 6.3.4 Evaluation of Agro-adaptation Measures 119 6.3.4.1 Altering the Transplanting Date 120 6.3.4.2 Introducing Supplementary Irrigation 121 6.3.4.3 Changing Fertilizer Application Rate 122 6.3.4.4 Changing Number of Fertilizer Doses 123 6.3.4.5 Change in Cultivars 124 6.4emspConclusions 126 References 126 Front Matter....Pages i-xvi Introduction....Pages 1-7 Assessment of Water Availability Under Climate Change Scenarios in Thailand....Pages 9-23 Climate Change Impact on Reservoir Inflows of Ubolratana Dam in Thailand....Pages 25-41 Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Flood Hazard Potential in the Yang River Basin, Thailand....Pages 43-66 Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Irrigation Water Requirement and Rice Yield for Ngamoeyeik Irrigation Project in Myanmar....Pages 67-91 Adaptation Strategies for Rice Cultivation Under Climate Change in Central Vietnam....Pages 93-119