Climate Change Economics Between Europe And China: Long-term Economic Development Of Divergence And Convergence Hardcover

This book is the first attempt to highlight the Great Divergence between Europe and China from the perspective of environmental change. The author discusses the agrarian economy while considering the effects of climate change in both Europe and China at a long-term scale. The findings in the book supplement current knowledge and discussion on the Great Divergence across Eurasia. The book further aims to empirically review the climatic impacts on the human community in the past as the relevant historical reference by which to understand human–nature linkages in the current Anthropocene epoch. The statistical analysis in the book will contribute to the development of relevant subjects, such as environmental humanities, quantitative history, and historical geography. The book thus is suitable to all levels of students, undergraduate and postgraduate, in the university. In summary, by combining multiple disciplines in both methods and knowledge, this book becomes an interesting reference to students, academic staff, and even the general public. It may also appeal to policymakers, who aim to address the impacts of climate change according to past societal experiences. Acknowledgment 5 Introduction: An Academic Journey Starts from the Geography 7 Geographical Experiment 8 Climate Change and the Agrarian Economy: A Conceptual Basis of the Book 10 Book Structure 12 References 14 Contents 16 About the Author 21 Chapter 1: A Philosophical Basis 22 1.1 A Tale of Two Regions 22 1.2 Philosophical Basis 24 1.2.1 Environmental Humanities 26 1.2.2 Environmental Humanities and Environmental Determinism 28 1.2.3 The Big Data and Quantitative History 30 1.2.4 Historical Geography: A Subject to Bridge the Gaps Between History and Geography and Between Time and Space 34 1.2.5 Anthropocene: A New Age of Nature–Human Association 35 1.3 Objectives of the Book 37 1.4 Potential Significance and Risks 39 1.4.1 Empirical Support to Environmental Humanities 39 1.4.2 Empirical Evaluation of Historical Records for Quantitative Analysis 40 1.4.3 Anthropocene: A Divergence in Perception Between China and Europe 41 1.4.4 A Possible Historical Reference for Future Climate Challenge? 42 1.5 Distinguishing Points of This Book 43 References 44 Chapter 2: A New Approach to an Old Question: A Methodological Basis 48 2.1 The Way to Understand Paleoclimate Change 48 2.1.1 Instrumental Records 51 2.1.2 Historical Records 52 2.1.3 Natural Proxies 53 2.1.3.1 Tree Rings 54 2.1.3.2 Pollens 54 2.1.3.3 Ice Cores 55 2.1.3.4 Speleothems 56 2.1.3.5 Ocean Sediments 56 2.1.3.6 Corals 56 2.1.4 Concerns in Paleoclimatology: Accuracy and Resolution 57 2.2 Temperature and Precipitation as the Indicators of Climate Change 60 2.3 Strategies for Paleoclimate Reconstruction in the Book 61 2.4 Scale Thinking: A Key Methodological Issue 63 2.4.1 Temporal Scale 64 2.4.2 Spatial Scale 65 2.4.3 Implications of the Microscale and Macroscale Approaches 66 2.4.4 Purification of the Scale Issue in the Book 67 2.5 Data and Methods in the Book 68 2.5.1 Study Period in the Book 69 2.5.2 Data Sources 70 2.5.2.1 Reconstructed Climate Index in the Book 71 2.5.2.2 Grain Yield Ratio: A Key Indicator of Agricultural Production in Pre-industrial Europe 72 2.5.2.3 Price Mechanism in the Grain Market 73 2.5.2.4 Estimated Population Size in the Past 75 2.5.3 Methods 75 2.6 Philosophy Embedded in the Statistical Analysis 77 2.7 Theoretical Basis of the Causal Analysis in the Book 78 2.8 A Brief Discussion on the Historical Records of China and Europe 80 References 81 Chapter 3: Climate Change and the Agrarian Economy: The Case of Europe 87 3.1 The Little Ice Age and the General Crisis of the Seventeenth Century in Pre-industrial Europe 88 3.2 The Facts on Pre-industrial Europe According to the Historical Literature 89 3.2.1 Social Buffering Capacity of Pre-industrial Europe in General 90 3.2.1.1 New Crops 90 3.2.1.2 Government Management and Institutions 91 3.2.1.3 Trade and Transportation 91 3.2.2 England 92 3.2.3 France 93 3.2.4 Germany 93 3.2.5 Poland 93 3.2.6 Russia 94 3.2.7 Negative Impacts of Precipitation on Pre-industrial Europe 95 3.3 Quantitative Analysis at a Macroscale of Europe’s Agrarian Economy 97 3.3.1 Theoretical Framework at a Macroscale 97 3.3.2 Statistical Analysis of the Theoretical Framework 100 3.4 Implications of the Quantitative Results for Pre-industrial Europe 106 3.4.1 Climate Change and the Agrarian Economy at Different Temporal Scales 107 3.4.2 Temperature: A Controlling Factor of Climate Change in Pre-industrial Europe 108 3.4.3 Supply–Demand Mechanism in Pre-industrial Europe 109 3.4.4 Social Crisis and Economic Development in Historical Europe 110 3.5 Summary 114 References 115 Chapter 4: Climate Change and the Agrarian Economy: The Case of China 119 4.1 The Facts on China According to the Historical Literature 120 4.1.1 Social Buffering Capacity of Late Imperial China in General 122 4.1.1.1 Technology and New Crops 122 4.1.1.2 Trade and Transportation 125 4.1.1.3 Government Management and Institutions 125 4.1.1.4 Storage 126 4.1.2 Tumu Crisis (土木之变) 127 4.1.3 Li Zicheng (李自成) Rebellion 132 4.1.4 Manchurian Conquest 134 4.1.5 Daoguang (道光) Depression 138 4.1.6 Taiping Rebellion 140 4.2 Quantitative Analysis at a Macroscale of China’s Agrarian Economy 141 4.3 Implications of the Quantitative Results for Late Imperial China 149 4.3.1 Comparative Role of Temperature and Precipitation 149 4.3.2 Special Role of Population in Late Imperial China 150 4.3.3 Social Crisis and Economic Development in Historical China 151 4.4 Summary 153 References 153 Chapter 5: Comparative Analysis of Eurasia 159 5.1 Climate Change and the Agrarian Economies of Pre-Industrial Europe and Late Imperial China 159 5.2 Comparisons of Countries Across Eurasia 160 5.2.1 Wide Influence of Climate Change on the Agrarian Society 161 5.2.2 Differentiated Responses to Climate Change 162 5.2.2.1 Long-Term Versus Short-Term Climatic Impacts 162 5.2.2.2 Major Role of Population: Labor or Consumer? 163 5.2.3 Climate Change, Agrarian Economy, and Social Crisis: Direct and Indirect Ways 167 5.3 Climate Change, Agrarian Economy, and the Great Divergence 169 5.4 A Quantitative Answer to When, Where, and How 171 References 172 Chapter 6: The Way to Know the Chinese Past According to the Climate-Related Records 176 6.1 Current Progress in Climate History Research Based on China’s Historical Documents 180 6.1.1 Application to Paleoclimate Reconstructions 180 6.1.2 Understanding Climate and Society 183 6.2 Elements of Weather/Climate in the Records of Imperial China 185 6.2.1 Materials of Historical Documents 185 6.2.2 Sources of Historical Documents 187 6.2.3 Generalizations in the Writing Style 190 6.2.4 Direct Historical Records on Climatic Conditions 191 6.3 Comments on China’s Historical Documents in the Context of Climate History 193 6.3.1 Advantages and Disadvantages of Using China’s Historical Documents 193 6.3.2 Main Principles in Using China’s Historical Documents 194 6.3.3 Possibility of Quantitative Approaches in Using the Historical Documents of China 195 6.3.4 “Mandate of Heaven”: Exploring an Important Social Implication of Climate 196 6.3.5 “Heaven” and the Pragmatism of Governance in Ancient China 199 6.4 Revisiting Environmental Humanities and the “Mandate of Heaven” 201 6.5 Summary 202 References 204 Chapter 7: Conclusion 209 7.1 Remarks on the Findings in the Book 210 7.2 Theoretical Implications of the Findings in This Book 212 7.2.1 Revisiting Evolutionary Economics, Ecological Economics, and Environmental Economics 212 7.2.2 A Key Methodological Issue: Scale Thinking 214 7.2.3 Causal Mechanisms in Scale Thinking 216 7.2.4 Role of Population in Scale Thinking 217 7.2.5 Historical Root of the Notion of Anthropocene in China and Europe 218 7.2.5.1 Comparative View of Anthropocene Between China and Europe 219 7.2.5.2 Anthropocene and Ecological Civilization in China 220 7.2.6 Comparison Between Quantitative History and the Questionnaire Survey Method: Three Open Questions for Readers 222 7.2.7 Modest Remarks on the Quantitative Analysis in the Book 223 7.3 Potential Social Implications to the Current Society 224 7.3.1 Forthcoming Climate Change and Agricultural Production 224 7.3.2 Dual Role of China in the Context of Climate Change in the Anthropocene 225 7.3.3 Climate Action of China in the Anthropocene 226 7.3.4 Economic Vulnerability from a Demographic Perspective 227 7.4 Limitations of the Study 227 7.5 Future Research Direction 228 References 229 This book is the first attempt to highlight the Great Divergence between Europe and China from the perspective of environmental change. The author discusses the agrarian economy while considering the effects of climate change in both Europe and China at a long-term scale. The findings in the book supplement current knowledge and discussion on the Great Divergence across Eurasia. The book further aims to empirically review the climatic impacts on the human community in the past as the relevant historical reference by which to understand human nature linkages in the current Anthropocene epoch. The statistical analysis in the book will contribute to the development of relevant subjects, such as environmental humanities, quantitative history, and historical geography. The book thus is suitable to all levels of students, undergraduate and postgraduate, in the university. In summary, by combining multiple disciplines in both methods and knowledge, this book becomes an interesting reference to students, academic staff, and even the general public. It may also appeal to policymakers, who aim to address the impacts of climate change according to past societal experiences