Climate Change and Migration: Evidence from the Middle East and North Africa (World Bank Studies)

Climate change and migration are major concerns in the MENA region, yet the empirical evidence on the impact of climate change and extreme weather events on migration remains limited. Information is broadly lacking on how households in vulnerable areas perceive changes in the climate, how they are affected by extreme weather events, whether they benefit from community and government programs to help them cope with and adapt to a changing climate, and how these conditions influence the decision of household members to migrate, either temporarily or permanently. This introductory chapter summarizes briefly the main results of the study which relied on existing data as well as focus groups and new household surveys collected in 2011 in Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Syria, and Yemen. The results suggest that households do perceive important changes in the climate, and that many households are being affected by extreme weather events resulting in losses in income, crops, and livestock. The coping and adaptation strategies used by households to deal with weather shocks are diverse, but also limited, with most households not able to recover from the negative impact of weather shocks. The ability of community level responses and government programs to support households is also very limited. Finally, while climate change is not today the main driver of migration flows, it does appear to contribute substantially to these flows, so that worsening climatic conditions are likely to exacerbate future migration flows.

Climate change is a major source of concern in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, and migration is often understood as one of several strategies used by households to respond to changes in climate and environmental conditions, including extreme weather events. This study focuses on the link between climate change and migration. Most micro-level studies measure climate change either by the incidences of extreme weather events or by variation in temperature or rainfall. A few studies have found that formal and informal institutions as well as policies also affect migration. Institutions that make government more responsive to households (for example through public spending) discourage both international and domestic migration in the aftermath of extreme weather events. Migration is often an option of last resort after vulnerable rural populations attempting to cope with new and challenging circumstances have exhausted other options such as eating less, selling assets, or removing children from school. This study is based in large part on new data collected in 2011 in Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Syria, and the Republic of Yemen. The surveys were administered by in-country partners to a randomly selected set of 800 households per country. It is also important to emphasize that neither the household survey results nor the findings from the qualitative focus groups are meant to be representative of the five countries in which the work was carried, since only a few areas were surveyed in each country. This report is organized as follows: section one gives synthesis. Section two discusses household perceptions about climate change and extreme weather events. Section three focuses on migration as a coping mechanisms and income diversification strategy. Section four examines other coping and adaptation strategies. Section five discusses perceptions about government and community programs.

Table 1.6 Summary Results from Regression Analysis on Weather Shocks and MigrationRemittances; Other Coping and Adaptation Strategies; Table 1.7 Household Coping Strategies to Deal with Climate Change and Shocks; Table 1.8 Adaptive Strategies of Households to Deal with Climate Change and Shocks; Community and Government Programs; Table 1.9 Adaptive Strategies of Communities to Deal with Climate Change and Shocks; Table 1.10 Government Programs to Deal with Climate Change and Shocks; Conclusion; Notes; Bibliography; Part 2 Focus Countries and Data; Chapter 2Focus Countries; Introduction Front Cover; Contents; Acknowledgments; Overview; Introduction; Perceptions and Impacts of Weather Shocks on Households; Tables; Table O.1 Perceptions of Climate Change, Last Five Years, Five Countries Sample, 2011; Coping and Adaptation Strategies; Table O.2 Economic Impacts of Weather Shocks, Five Countries Sample, 2011; Table O.3 Weather Shocks and Impact on Agriculture, Morocco, 2009/10; Table O.4 Adaptive Strategies of Households to Deal with Climate Change and Shocks; Migration; Remittances; Table O.5 Summary Results from Regression Analysis on Weather Shocks and Migration Conclusion and Policy ImplicationsNote; Bibliography; Part 1 Synthesis; Chapter 1 Climate Change, Migration, and Adaptation in the MENA Region; Introduction; Perceptions about Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events; Table 1.1 Perceptions of Climate Change, Five Countries, 2011; Table 1.2 Weather Shocks and Impact on Agriculture, Morocco, 2009/10; Table 1.3 Incidence of Extreme Weather Events and Impact, Five Countries, 2011; Table 1.4 Economic Impacts of Environmental Change, Five Countries, 2011; Migration; Table 1.5 Share of Households with Migrants-Household Level Map 3.3 Maps of the Selected Area for the Household Survey in MoroccoMap 3.4 Map of the Selected Area for the Household Survey in the Syrian Arab Republic; Map 3.5 Map of the Selected Area for the Household Survey in the Republic of Yemen; Figure; Figure 3.1 Sampling Methodology for the Household Surveys; Table 3.1 Location Information for Algeria Survey Sample; Table 3.2 Location Information for Arab Republic of Egypt Survey Sample; Table 3.3 Location Information for Morocco Survey Sample; Table 3.4 Location Information for Syrian Arab Republic Survey Sample Criteria for the Choice of Focus CountriesTable 2.1 Population Data for the Most Populated Arab Countries, 2012; Table 2.2 Areas within Arab Countries Vulnerable to Droughts; Algerian Context; Egyptian Context; Moroccan Context; Syrian Context; Yemeni Context; Conclusion; Notes; Bibliography; Chapter 3Data Collection; Introduction; Household Survey Questionnaire; Household Survey Data Collection; Maps; Map 3.1 Map of the Selected Area for the Household Survey in Algeria; Map 3.2 Map of the Selected Area for the Household Survey in the Arab Republic of Egypt Table 3.5 Location Information for Republic of Yemen Survey Sample