Climate Change and Energy: Japanese Perspectives on Climate Change Mitigation Strategy (Icp Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation)

Within the contexts of the global warming crisis facing the world, climate change mitigation strategies must be developed with a deep understanding of the science behind the impact of climate change and adaptations that must be made. This book discusses the mitigation strategy of climate change from the perspective of Japan and adopts a comprehensive view on climate change science, taking into consideration the recent international discussions on the subject, including those of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Furthermore, this book discusses energy and environment strategies in Japan, particularly after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power accident, underpinning Japan's historical lack of natural resource and the resulting difficulties it faces in keeping up with the demand for energy. Finally, this book provides the quantitative model to assess scenarios for climate mitigation and their associated costs and economic impacts for the formulation of a national strategy for an effective and sustainable set of climate change mitigation measures. Readership: Graduate students, researchers and readers interested in energy studies and climate change mitigation. Contents 8 Preface 6 Chapter 1. Overview: Basic Strategy for Mitigating Climate Change 10 1.1 Brief History of the Reaction of Mankind to Climate Change 10 References 14 1.2 Causes and Impacts of Climate Change 14 Causes of climate change and existing skepticisms 14 Impacts of climate change 18 Evaluating climate change impacts by use of “reasons for concern” 24 References 26 1.3 The 2-degree Target 27 Requirement of Framework Convention and the proposal of the 2-degree target 27 Two 2050 targets produced from the 2-degree target 29 References 32 1.4 Characteristics of Energy and Measures for Reducing CO2 Emission 32 Measures for reducing CO2 emission 32 Use of non-carbon energy 33 Switching from carbon-intensive fuels to less intensive fuels 38 CCS technology 40 References 42 1.5 Discussion on Attainability of the 2-degree Target 42 Factorization of CO2 emission (Kaya identity) 42 Attainability of the target of halving CO2 by 2050 43 Attainability of the 80% reduction target 46 References 52 1.6 Construction of a New Target 52 Changes in evaluation of impacts of temperature rise on RFCs 52 Construction of 2.5-degree target 54 What should be done for realizing the desirable pathway in the long term? 59 Concluding remarks 64 References 64 Chapter 2. Japan’s Energy and Environmental Policy 66 2.1 Brief History of Japan’s Energy and Environmental Policy 66 Economic growth and energy supply/demand in the past 100 years 66 Emergence of the energy and environmental policy 68 The era of energy security 70 Emergence of the global warming problem 73 Waves of market fundamentalism 75 Three “E”s in the energy and environmental policy 76 The lost two decades 76 References 80 2.2 Reconstruction of Energy and Environmental Policy after Fukushima 81 Reviewing the energy and environmental policy under the political leadership 81 Safety plus three “E”s (S+3 “E”s) 82 Low-dose radiation risk 83 Risk of severe accidents 84 Foundation for devising energy and environmental policy after the Fukushima nuclear accident 85 Is it possible to further conserve energy and power? 86 Understanding the difference between kW and kWh 87 Power supply–demand balance in kW 88 Can Japan forgo reliance on nuclear power? 89 Ensuring power supply–demand balance2.1 90 Possibilities of demand response having consumers take part in supply–demand control 92 Possibilities of using thermal storage systems 93 Smart systems using information networks 93 Drawbacks of local production for local consumption 94 Information-energy integration and challenges 95 Problems lying in the Innovative Strategy for Energy and the Environment 96 Ambiguous policy 96 Zero nuclear power plant operation in the 2030s and the rules regarding 40-year limitation of operation 98 Ambiguous nuclear fuel cycle policy 98 Economic growth scenarios and measures against global warming 99 Impact of zero nuclear power 100 Purposes of electricity system reforms2.6 102 Concluding remarks 105 References 106 2.3 Managing the Nuclear Risk 106 Current situation of nuclear power in Japan 106 How to manage the severe accidents3.2 108 Summary of the report 109 Vicious circle of distrust during the accident response aggravated the crisis 112 Anxiety in the realm of scientific uncertainty 114 Role of the academic world in light of the accident investigation 115 HLWdisposal3.4 117 HLWdisposal program in Japan 118 Concept of geological disposal and risk 120 Difficulty in site selection 121 Six proposals by the Science Council of Japan 122 Setting a moratorium period by “temporal safe storage” 123 “Management of the total amount” of HLW 124 Awareness of the limits of scientific and technical abilities 124 References 125 2.4 The Future of Renewable Energy 125 Renewable energy usage trends in Japan and abroad 126 Trends in Japan 127 FIT scheme 129 FIT scheme operation 131 FIT scheme in Germany 133 Challenges facing the FIT scheme 134 Green growth expectations 135 Making the national burden reasonable 136 References 137 2.5 Frontiers of Energy and Environmental Policy in Japan 137 Use of demand-side resources 138 Toward an international perspective 139 References 141 Chapter 3. Model Analysis for Climate Change Mitigation Strategy 142 3.1 Introduction to Model Analysis for Climate Change Mitigation Strategy 142 References 144 3.2 Assessment of Sustainable Development Scenarios 144 Assessment framework on sustainable development scenarios 146 Overview of the model 146 Sustainable development indicators 147 Assumed alternative scenarios for assessments 148 Socioeconomic scenarios 149 GHG emission reduction scenarios 150 Climate policy context scenarios 152 Assessment of climate change mitigation scenarios in terms of sustainable development 154 GHG emissions 154 Mitigation costs 155 Aggregated macroeconomic impact of climate change 157 Poverty 159 Energy 160 Sustainable energy use 160 Efficient energy use 161 Energy access 162 Energy security 164 Water 165 Food and land-use change 167 Land-use for food production 168 Food access 169 Food security 171 Ocean acidification 174 Comparison between medium and high economic growth scenarios 175 Implications for the mitigation from climate policy 176 Summary of assessments for sustainable development indicators 179 Policy implications 180 Economic growth, sustainable development, and global warming 180 Long-term emission goal 180 Barriers to technology diffusion, and overcoming such barriers 181 Policy options 181 References 182 3.3 Assessment of Climate Change Mitigation Measures 185 Overview of energy systems model: DNE21+ 185 A technology-rich energy systems model 186 Historical data for the assumptions of the model 189 Assumptions on future end-use demands 191 Assumptions on the performance of technologies in the future 191 Assessment for mid-term emission reduction potentials 192 Assessment for long-term emission reductions 197 Discussions and policy implications 203 Understanding the gaps between a real society and a world provided through model analysis 205 References 208 3.4 Assessment of Japanese Energy and Environmental Strategy 210 Overview of the DEARS energy-economic model 211 Assessment of Japanese energy and environment strategy after Fukushima 214 Overview of the options for energy and the environment 215 Economic analysis of “Options of Energy and the Environment” 219 Impacts on electricity prices and charges 220 Macroeconomic impacts 223 Costs of CO2 emission reductions 225 Outlooks for electricity savings in the “Options for Energy and the Environment” and economic analysis under the revised assumptions 226 Outlooks for electricity savings 226 Case studies for the alternative options for energy and the environment strategy 228 Impacts on electricity prices and charges in the alternative options 230 Macroeconomic impacts in the alternative options 232 CO2 emissions in the alternative options 233 Toward developments of new energy and environmental strategies 234 References 236 "Within the contexts of the global warming crisis facing the world, climate change mitigation strategies must be developed with a deep understanding of the science behind the impact of climate change and adaptations that must be made. This book discusses the mitigation strategy of climate change from the perspective of Japan and adopts a comprehensive view on climate change science, taking into consideration the recent international discussions on the subject, including those of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Furthermore, this book discusses energy and environment strategies in Japan, particularly after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power accident, underpinning Japan's historical lack of natural resource and the resulting difficulties it faces in keeping up with the demand for energy. Finally, this book provides the quantitative model to assess scenarios for climate mitigation and their associated costs and economic impacts for the formulation of a national strategy for an effective and sustainable set of climate change mitigation measures."-- Provided by publisher