Climate Change and Ancient Societies in Europe and the Near East: Diversity in Collapse and Resilience (Palgrave Studies in Ancient Economies)

Climate change over the past thousands of years is undeniable, but debate has arisen about its impact on past human societies. This book explores the link between climate and society in ancient worlds, focusing on the ancient economies of western Eurasia and northern Africa from the fourth millennium BCE up to the end of the first millennium CE. This book contributes to the multi-disciplinary debate between scholars working on climate and society from various backgrounds. The chronological boundaries of the book are set by the emergence of complex societies in the Neolithic on the one end and the rise of early-modern states in global political and economic exchange on the other. In order to stimulate comparison across the boundaries of modern periodization, this book ends with demography and climate change in early-modern and modern Italy, a society whose empirical data allows the kind of statistical analysis that is impossible for ancient societies. The book highlights the role of human agency, and the complex interactions between the natural environment and the socio-cultural, political, demographic, and economic infrastructure of any given society. It is intended for a wide audience of scholars and students in ancient economic history, specifically Rome and Late Antiquity. Paul Erdkamp is Professor in Ancient History at Vrije Universiteit Brussels, Belgium. He teaches Ancient History, specializing in the Roman World, with a particular interest in economy, food supply, historiography, and environmental and social aspects of army and war. Joseph G. Manning is Professor of Classics and Professor of History and Senior Research Scholar in Law at Yale University, New Haven, USA. He specializes in Hellenistic history with particular focus on the legal and economic history of Ptolemaic Egypt. Koenraad Verboven is Professor of Ancient History at the University of Ghent, Belgium. He specializes in ancient social and economic history, particularly of the Roman world, and has a special interest in monetary history and numismatics, friendship and patronage based networks, guilds (collegia), (neo- )institutional analysis and complexity economics. Introduction Joseph G. Manning—Climate and Society: Past and Present Koenraad Verboven—Climate and Society: A Complex Story Paul Erdkamp—Climate and Society: Studying Ancient Worlds Bibliography Contents Notes on Contributors List of Figures List of Tables 1 A Historian’s Introduction to Paleoclimatology Instrumental and Historical Sources Natural Proxy Data Glaciers Stable Isotopes Ice Cores Speleothems Lake Sediments Pollen Dendroclimatology Proxies and Climate Eras Bibliography 2 A Hard Row to Hoe: Ancient Climate Change from the Crop Perspective Introduction Climate Change and Wider Environmental Problems Plant Biology, Taxonomy, and Limiting Factors Photosynthesis, Transpiration, and Respiration Taxonomy, Genetic Variation, and Climate Change Variation, Adaptation, and the Resilience of Plants and Plant Populations Tolerance Ranges and Phenotypic Plasticity Populations and Resilience Atmospheric Changes and Carbon Isotope Discrimination in Ancient and Modern Crops Long Term Changes in Atmospheric CO2 and O3: Effects on Yield and Nutrition Plant Carbon Isotope Discrimination and Water Status in Archaeobotanical Specimens Climate Change and Human Agency Of Crops and Fields Crop Selection and Climate Change: Macro-archaeobotanical and Written Evidence Crops and the Distribution of the Effects of Climate Change Extreme Weather Events Temperature Distribution: Warm Weather and ‘Climatic Optima’ Water Availability Temperature Distribution: Chilling Requirements and Vernalization Climate Change: Economic Outcomes, Social Cooperation, and Resilience Economic Outcomes Social Cooperation and Resilience Conclusion Bibliography 3 Who Follows the Elephant Will Have Problems: Thought on Modelling Roman Responses to Climate (Changes) Introduction The Hohokam The Zerqa Triangle The Maya The Elephant in the Room Modelling the Right Romans? Languages of Change and Structure By Way of Conclusion Bibliography 4 Famines, Demographic Crises and Climate in Italy 1650–1913 The Long-Term Population Trend Phases and Cycles The Hypothesis Births and Deaths Incomes Incomes and Vital Rates: A Test Demographic Crises and Diseases The Contribution of Fertility Climate-Population Conclusion Bibliography 5 Collapse and Resilience in Prehistoric Archaeology: Questioning Concepts and Causalities in Models of Climate-Induced Societal Transformations Introduction The Concepts of Collapse and Resilience in Archaeology Narratives of Collapse Resilience Theory (RT) The Adaptive Cycle (AC) Model Resilience Theory and Adaptive Cycles in Prehistoric Archaeology The Cultural Cycles Concept The Concept of Cyclical Social Resilience Strategies Reflections on Collapse and Resilience as Theoretical Frameworks Case Study: Climate-Induced Changes in Neolithic Lakeshore Settlement Practices in the Alpine Space Around 3400 BCE Current Narratives on Climate-Induced ‘Settlement Gaps’ Methodological Approach and Materials Archaeological Indicators Paleoclimatic Proxy Data Qualitative and Quantitative Methods Climate Deterioration and Settlement Decline Around 3400 BCE The Settlement Decline Around 3400 BCE—Qualitative Approach Significance Test of Settlement and Climate Fluctuations—Quantitative Approach Societal Collapse or Settlement Mobility as a Resilience Strategy Around 3400 BCE? Discussion Collapse Is Hard to Prove in Prehistoric Archaeology Adaptive Cycle Models and the Danger of Double Determinism In Favour of Analysing Socio-Environmental Relations from the Bottom-Up Conclusion Bibliography 6 Climate, State Building and Political Change in Egypt During the Early Bronze Age: A Direct Relation? Introduction Ancient Egypt, 2160–2050 BC: A “Typical” Case of Climatic Change and Collapse? Recent Contributions of Archaeology: The End of a Myth Conclusion Bibliography 7 Vulnerability to Climate Change in Late Bronze Age Peloponnese (Greece) Introduction Measures of Vulnerability Climate Exposure Food Supply and Sensitivity Food Resources Land Use and the Availability of Food Connectedness and Adaptive Capacity Climate and Society in the LBA Concluding Remarks Bibliography 8 Saving Up for a Rainy Day? Climate Events, Human-Induced Processes and Their Potential Effects on People’s Coping Strategies in the Mycenaean Argive Plain, Greece Introduction [AB] Research History Climate in the Argive Plain Region [RT] Labour Cost Studies and the Argive Plain [AB] Construction [AB] LBA Agriculture LBA Agricultural Production and Its Organization [RT] Agricultural Cycle Data [AB] Climate’s Impact on Rainfed Agriculture [RT] Discussion Agricultural Production and Crop Failures in the Argive Plain [RT] Numbers Related to Labour Involved in Building and Agricultural Activities [AB] Resilience Strategies [AB & RT] Numbers Related to Climate, Agriculture and Construction [AB & RT] Conclusions Bibliography 9 Peloponnesian Land Use Dynamics and Climate Variability in the First Millennium BCE Introduction Rural Landscape Trajectories in the First Millenium BCE Integrating Palaeoclimatic and Archaeological Datasets Results of the Integrated Analysis Discussion Conclusion Bibliography 10 Volcanic Eruptions, Veiled Suns, and Nile Failure in Egyptian History: Integrating Hydroclimate into Understandings of Historical Change Introduction Explosive Volcanism, Nile Variability, and Egyptian History Volcanic Hydroclimatic Impacts Societal Responses to Nile Flood Failure Further Reflections of Volcanic Phenomena and Hydroclimatic Stress: The Oracle of the Potter Conclusions Bibliography 11 The Environmental Imperialism of the Roman Empire in Northwestern Europe Introduction The Climate of Northwestern Europe Germany and the Rhine Basin Britain and the Thames Basin Landscape Stabilisation in the Post-Roman Period Conclusions Bibliography 12 Seasonal Drought on Roman Rivers: Transport vs. Irrigation Introduction Interdicts on Rivers Law and Climate in the “Flow Standard” Protected Uses of Public Rivers Case Study I: Tiber Case Study II: Ebro Case Study III: Maeander Conclusion Bibliography 13 The Antonine Crisis: Climate Change as a Trigger for Epidemiological and Economic Turmoil Introduction Climate in the Second Century CE The Climate Data Climate Forcing in the Second Century The Antonine Plague The Ancient Sources Accounts from Western Asia Galen Diagnosis Smallpox and Climate Discussion Second-Century Decline: Plague or Climate? The Northern Empire Decline in Silver Mining Alburnus Maior (Roșia Montană, Romania) Mass Grave at London Road, Gloucester, U.K. Roman Egypt Discussion Bibliography 14 Climate Change and the Productive Landscape in the Mediterranean Region in the Roman Period Introduction Climate, Trends and Weather Climate, Agricultural Systems and Cropping Strategies Measuring the Impact of Climate Change Impact of Temperature on the Crop Cycle Weather and Risks in Roman Agriculture Roman Climate Change in a Long-Term Perspective Altitudinal Margins Tipping Points, Carrying Capacity and the Scope for Adaptation Conclusions Bibliography 15 Viticulture as a Climate Proxy for the Roman World? Global Warming as a Comparative Framework for Interpreting the Ancient Source Material in Italy and the West (ca. 200 BC–200 AD) Introduction Exploring Roman Viticulture and Climate Temperature and Vine Suitability Temperature and GHD The Textual Evidence The Pictorial Evidence Precipitation and Humidity An Unpredictable Future ... and Past Conclusion Bibliography 16 Risks for Farming Families in the Roman World Introduction The Model and Assumptions Plausibility of Assumptions Plausibility of Results Sensitivity to Climate Variability A ‘Possible Solution’ to Excessive Tenancy Risks? Conclusion Appendix: Central Scenario Assumptions Bibliography 17 Figures in an Imperial Landscape: Ecological and Societal Factors on Settlement Patterns and Agriculture in Roman Italy Eastern Cisalpine Gaul The Data: Modena and the Bassa Modenese The Data: Rovigo, Adria and Padova Urban Centres in Cisalpine Gaul Interpreting the Data Etruria Urban Centres in Etruria Discussion Conclusions Bibliography 18 Hydrological Changes in Late Antiquity: Spatio-Temporal Characteristics and Socio-Economic Impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean Introduction Climate Proxies Climate Models Outline of Chapter Proxy Records Paleoclimate Model Simulations Rainfall Deficit and Basil of Caesarea’s Food Shortage Bibliography 19 Resilience and Adaptation at the End of Antiquity. An Evaluation of the Impact of Climate Change in Late Roman Western-Central Anatolia Introduction Agricultural Development and Climate in Late Roman Central Anatolia The Environmental Evidence Agricultural Development in Late Roman Central Anatolia The Archaeological Evidence Conclusions: Resilience and Adaptation in Rural Western-Central Anatolia Bibliography 20 The Social Metabolism of Past Societies: A New Approach to Environmental Changes and Societal Responses in the Territory of Sagalassos (SW Turkey) Introduction Theoretical Framework Data Sources and Methods Climate Data Land Use Subsistence Settlement Patterns Demography Production Discussion Limits of the Evidence Drivers of Change Metabolic Regimes Conclusions Bibliography Index