CLIMATE CHANGE AND ADAPTATION FOR FOOD SUSTAINABILITY : implications and scenarios from... malaysia

This book assesses the vulnerability impacts of climate change on food security by examining a 50 years scenario (2015- 2065) and following a top-down approach. Importantly, looking at the sustainable food production, the authors compared the cost-benefit of adaptation costs from 2015 to 2065. It was found that a 15% adaptation capacity is more efficient for Malaysia in order to combat the climate change effects on the food sector. This book has developed a quantitative adaptive model namely, the Malaysian Climate and Economy (MCE) model, based on the dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modeling structure to examine food sustainability and adaptation strategies. Malaysia experiences an unusual combination of droughts and extreme rainfall events that can be attributed to climate change. These unusual events and consequences leave Malaysian policymakers looking for ways to make Malaysia self-sufficient in terms of agriculture. It is assumed that climate change effects may result in increasing food insecurity and vulnerability in the future. Policy measures are in place to lessen the likely climatic effects overall, but there is an urgent need to develop an adaptation policy for the future. Preface Contents Abbreviations Chapter 1: Introduction 1.1 Introduction 1.2 Problem Statement 1.3 Research Goals 1.4 Current Climate Change Scenario in Malaysia 1.5 Significance of Study 1.6 Limitations 1.7 Conclusion 1.8 Book Organization References Chapter 2: Recent Research on Climate Change and Food Security 2.1 Introduction 2.1.1 Climate Variability and Climate Change 2.1.2 Declining Food Sector 2.2 Asian Development Bank Observations of Climate Change in Agriculture in Southeast Asia 2.2.1 Dynamics of Food Security under a Changing Climate 2.2.2 Food Security and Climate Change: A Conceptual Framework 2.2.3 Contribution of Food Sector to Malaysian GDP 2.3 Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security in Malaysia 2.4 Climate Change and Self-Sufficiency Level in Rice Production in Malaysia 2.5 Food Security Policy in Malaysia 2.6 Food Security and Responses to Climate Change 2.7 Exploring Development Paths: Institutions and Collective Behavior 2.8 Empirical Literature on the Impact of Climate Change 2.9 Relevant Literature Based on National and International Perspectives 2.10 Models to Assess Impact of Climate Change 2.10.1 Partial Equilibrium Models 2.10.2 Crop Simulation Models 2.10.3 Agro-Ecological Zone Models 2.10.4 Ricardian Models 2.11 Adaptation Policy for Food Security 2.11.1 Levels and Approaches of Adaptation for Malaysia 2.11.2 Government Policies, Challenges, and Actions for Food Security at National Level 2.11.3 Food Policy Measures and Challenges at International Level 2.12 Literature Gap to Study Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security 2.13 Contribution to Literature on Malaysian Perspectives References Chapter 3: Assessment of Climate Change and Adaptation Policies for Sustainable Food Security 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Hypothetical Construction of Study 3.3 General Equilibrium Theory 3.4 Conceptual Framework of Study 3.4.1 Data Sources 3.4.2 Study Area 3.4.3 Empirical Economizing Adoption 3.5 Study of Different Levels of Adaptation Options for Climate Change 3.6 Description of Simulations 3.7 Basics of CGE Model 3.8 Pros and Cons of Basic Model 3.9 Social Accounting Matrix 3.9.1 SAM Market Closure 3.9.2 Market Clearance Condition 3.9.3 Normal Profit Condition 3.9.4 Factor Market Balance 3.10 Balancing a SAM 3.10.1 CGE Model for Malaysian Economy 3.10.2 Basic Structure of Model 3.10.3 Prices 3.10.4 Production 3.10.5 Domestic Demand 3.11 Mathematical Statement and Specification of MICE Model 3.11.1 Price Block 3.11.2 Import Price 3.11.3 Export Price 3.11.4 Composite Goods Price 3.11.5 Domestic Output Price 3.11.6 Activity Price 3.11.7 Value-Added Price 3.11.8 Consumer Price Index 3.12 Producer Price Index for Nontraded Market Output 3.13 Production and Commodity Block Equations 3.14 Factor Income 3.14.1 Household Income 3.14.2 Household Consumption Demand 3.14.3 Investment Demand 3.14.4 Government Revenue 3.14.5 Government Expenditure 3.15 System Constraints Block 3.15.1 Factor Markets 3.15.2 Composite Commodity Markets 3.15.3 Current-Account Balance for ROW (in Foreign Currency) 3.15.4 Savings-Investment Balance 3.16 Price Normalization 3.16.1 Climate Change Block 3.17 Calibrating the CGE Model 3.17.1 Performing Scenario Simulations within CGE Model 3.18 Conclusion References Chapter 4: Food Security Challenges of Climate Change: An Analysis for Policy Selection in Malaysia 4.1 Introduction 4.1.1 Policy Scenarios 4.2 Baseline Scenario (BS) 4.3 Estimated Food Sustainability with No Adaption (EFSNA) 4.4 Estimated Food Sustainability with Adaption (EFSA) 4.4.1 Description of Simulations 4.5 Analysis of Different Scenarios 4.5.1 Different Levels of Damage from Climate Change 4.5.2 Costs of Different Adaptation Options 4.5.3 Effect of Climate Change in Government Spending 4.6 Impact of Climate Change on Food Sustainability over Time 4.6.1 Effects of Adaptation Strategies to RGDP References Chapter 5: Policy Implications for Climate Change Adaptation in Malaysia 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Suitable Adaptation Policy for Food Sustainability 5.3 Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change 5.4 Predicted Implications of Adaptation Options for Food Sustainability 5.5 Adaptation Action and Policy Issues for Malaysia 5.6 Summary References Chapter 6: Climate Change Adaptation Policy Recommendation for Food Security in Malaysia 6.1 Introduction 6.2 Summary of Findings 6.2.1 Different Levels of Adaptation Action 6.2.2 Adaptation Policy Costs and Benefits 6.2.3 Impacts of Climate Change for Adaptation Option 6.3 Capacity-Building Options and Gaps in Local Policy Community 6.4 Policy Suggestions 6.5 Contribution 6.6 Suggestions for Future Research 6.7 Limitations Appendix Climatic Equations Standard Model Equations That All Are Considered Over Time (t) List of Parameters Sets List of Variables