China’s Macroeconomic Outlook: Quarterly Forecast And Analysis Report, September 2016 (current Chinese Economic Report Series)

This book is a quarterly forecast and analysis report on the Chinese economy. It is published twice a year and presents ongoing results from the "China Quarterly Macroeconomic Model (CQMM)," a research project at the Center for Macroeconomic Research (CMR) at Xiamen University. Based on the CQMM model, the research team forecast major macroeconomic indicators for the next 8 quarters, including the rate of GDP growth, the CPI, fixed-asset investment, resident consumption and foreign trade. At the same time it focuses on simulation of current macroeconomic policies in China. In addition to helping readers understand China's economic trend and policy guide, this book has three main goals: to help readers understand China's economic performance; to forecast the main macroeconomic indicators for the next 8 quarters; and to simulate the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies.-- Provided by publisher Preface 6 Acknowledgements 7 Contents 9 Contributors 11 Principal Investigator 11 Research Team Members 11 Executive Summary 12 1 China Economic Performance in the First Half of 2016 16 1.1 Structural Transformation Persisted and the Labor Market Stayed Robust 16 1.2 Total Investment Growth Edged Down While Private Investment Growth Dropped Dramatically 21 1.3 Consumption Growth Remained Steady Despite Household Income Growth Decelerated 25 1.4 Foreign Trade Growth Remained Sluggish 27 1.5 The CPI Sustained Stable While the Decline in PPI Slowed 29 1.6 Bank Credit Rose Rapidly While the Gap Between M1 and M2 Growth Widened 30 1.7 Fiscal Revenues Saw Fast Growth and Fiscal Expenditures Expanded Dramatically 32 2 Quarterly Forecast for 2016–17 37 2.1 Assumptions on Exogenous Variables 37 2.1.1 Growth Rates of the United States and the Euro Area 37 2.1.2 The Exchange Rates 37 2.1.3 Growth Rate of the Broad Money Supply (M2) 38 2.2 Quarterly Forecast for China Major Macroeconomic Indicators in 2016–17 40 2.2.1 GDP Growth Rates 40 2.2.2 Major Prices Indices 40 2.3 Growth Rates of Other Major Macroeconomic Indicators 42 2.3.1 Growth Rates of Exports, Imports, and Foreign Exchange Reserves 42 2.3.2 Growth Rates of Investment in Fixed Assets 44 2.3.3 Growth Rates of Consumption 45 3 Policy Simulation: Macroeconomic Effects of Slowdown in Private Investment Growth 48 3.1 Background 48 3.2 Further Research 54 3.3 Policy Simulation 56 3.3.1 Model Specification Adjustment 56 3.3.2 Simulation Scenarios Planning 56 3.3.3 Simulation Results 57 3.3.3.1 Results of Comparing Scenario 1 with Baseline 57 3.3.3.2 Results of Comparing Scenario 2 with Baseline 60 4 Policy Implications and Suggestions 64 Appendix: Report on the Questionnaire Survey on China’s Macroeconomic Situation and Policy in 2016 68 Front Matter....Pages i-xvi China Economic Performance in the First Half of 2016....Pages 1-21 Quarterly Forecast for 2016–17....Pages 23-33 Policy Simulation: Macroeconomic Effects of Slowdown in Private Investment Growth....Pages 35-50 Policy Implications and Suggestions....Pages 51-54 Back Matter....Pages 55-61