China's Macroeconomic Outlook: Quarterly Forecast And Analysis Report, September 2014 (current Chinese Economic Report Series)

This book is a quarterly forecast and analysis report on the Chinese economy. It is published twice a year and presents ongoing result from the “China Quarterly Macroeconomic Model (CQMM),” a research project at the Center for Macroeconomic Research (CMR) at Xiamen University. Based on the CQMM model, the research team forecast major macroeconomic indicators for the next 8 quarters, including the rate of GDP growth, the CPI, fixed-asset investment, resident consumption and foreign trade. At the same time it focuses on simulation of current macroeconomic policies in China. In addition to helping readers understand China’s economic trend and policy guide, this book has three main goals: to help readers understand China’s economic performance; to forecast the main macroeconomic indicators for the next 8 quarters; and to simulate the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies. This book℗l provides key insights into how to control local government debts and optimize the makeup of debts in China. The rapid growth of investment in infrastructure on the part of local governments has offset the slowdown of investment growth in manufacturing and real estate and maintained the growth rate of 7.7% in 2013. However, local governmentsĺl debts have accumulated, which increases the risk of debt default and threatens the stability of Chinaĺls financial system. The research suggests that increasing the proportion of issuing bonds in total debts would be the first step toward eliminating the debt risk. Second, the Chinese government should play its part; and lastly, the government should relinquish its administrative control and monopoly in order to allow the service industry to further develop Front Matter....Pages i-ix Introduction....Pages 1-4 A Review of China’s Economy in the First Half of 2014....Pages 5-16 Forecast of China’s Economy for 2014–2015....Pages 17-27 Policy Simulations....Pages 29-37 Conclusions and Suggestions....Pages 39-41 A Survey of Chinese Economists on China’s Macroeconomic Performance in 2014....Pages 43-49