China's Labour Market, 1950–2050: The Role of Family Planning in Demographic and Income Transitions (Palgrave Studies in Economic History)

This book presents an in-depth examination of China’s population control policies from their establishment to the present and explores the developing implications of these policies on the Chinese labour market. The book connects original research on contemporary Chinese demographics with a historical analysis of China’s labour market structure. Using data from the most recent population census, chapters explore the economic impact of the demographic transition that has taken place over recent decades, from the strict implementation of family planning policies to the current easing of these policies. The book examines income growth and economic development in China after the Second World War with comparative perspectives from other Asian countries including Japan and South Korea. It also devotes a chapter to regional variations in the effectiveness of population control policies, exploring differences in rural and urban areas, and surveys the future challenges for the Chinese government in addressing population and growth-related concerns. This book will be of interest to students and researchers in economic history, labour economics, and demography, as well as those interested in Chinese economic and societal development. Contents About the Author List of Figures List of Tables 1 Introduction The Decreasing Proportion of Chinese in World’s Population Population Control Policies in the People’s Republic of China Fertility Trends After the Stringent One-Child Policy The Two-Child Policies and the Impending Labour Shortage in China Organizational Framework of the Study References 2 A Concentrated Demographic Transition Comprehending China’s Post-War Population Policymaking The One-Child Policy and Its Bottleneck The Reversal of Population Control Policies Two-Sided Effects of the One-Child Policy Rising Wage Effects of Demographic Shifts From Family Planning to Birth Encouraging Policies References 3 China’s Dual Transition: Income Growth and Transitioning Demographics Dynamics of China’s Income Transition Income Transitions in Selected Asian Economies Post-war Income Transition in East and Southeast Asia Turning Points in East and Southeast Asia’s Income Transitions China’s Dual Transition: Lessons from Asian Experiences Demographic Challenges to the Dual Transitions A Cyclical Adjustment or a Structural Downturn? Challenges to Income Transitions China’s Ongoing Demographic Transition Growth-Induced Population Structural Change Growth-Induced Population Displacement Regional Differences in Demographics Northeast China Inland China Demographic Implications for the Chinese Economy References 4 Connecting the Effectiveness and Ineffectiveness of the Two-Child Policies The Narrowing Time Window for Population Policies Declining Fertility Rates and the Shrinking Child-Bearing Age Female Population Effects of Two-Child Policies Beyond the Mid-2030s Structural Changes in Employment Rural Migrant Workers College Graduates Pension System Birth Rate Responses to the Two-Child Policies Socio-economic Transformations and Their Impact on Birth Rate Responses Effect of the Post-2013 Population Policies Effectiveness and Ineffectiveness of the Two-Child Policies The Rural–Urban Divide in Birth Rate Change The Regional Disparity in Birth Rate Changes Since 2013 Summary References 5 Conclusion Demographic Trends in China Economic Deceleration and the Impending Labour Shortage Income Transitions and Insights from Asian Experiences The Time Window of Population Policies References Index