China<U+0080>́<U+0099>s Economic Gene Mutations By Electricity Economics and Multi-agent

The book focuses on low-carbon issues and China ́ s economy, which is analyzed from the perspective of electricity economics. It proposes the novel concept of an ́ economic gene ́ to reflect certain characteristics of the economy. The gene mapping of China ́ s economy has been studied based on production functions with electricity. Economic mutations have also been studied with the aim of diagnosing problems in the economy.℗ Two such mutations have occurred in China since 1978, the most recent being in 2012 and no further mutation is expected until 2025. The book describes the inherent quality of China ́ s economy from 2012 to 2025, and how mechanism reforms would greatly improve marginal representative factor productivity in this period. The agents response equilibrium (ARE) approach to simulate national economy, based on multi-agent technology is proposed. Another cornerstone of the model is the input-output table. Simulated input-output tables from 2011 to 2025 are provided in the book. This book provides recommendations for policy makers and advisors, and is a valuable resource for researchers in the fields of economics, public policies, low-carbon development, electricity and energy. It also provides insights into China ́ s economic development Preface 6 Contents 12 About the Authors 18 Part I: Economic Gene Mapping in China by Electricity Economics 20 Chapter 1: China ́s Electricity Economy 21 1.1 Electricity Economics 22 1.1.1 The Characteristics of Electricity Data 22 1.1.2 Production Functions with Electricity 25 1.1.3 Stages of Economic Development in Terms of Electricity Consumption 28 1.1.4 The Characteristics of Gene in an Economy 30 1.2 Review of the Economic Development in China by Electricity Economics 33 1.2.1 Economic Activities of Three Industries 34 1.2.2 National Economic Development 47 1.2.3 Stages of Economic Development in China 52 1.3 Review of China ́s Economy in Global Crisis 56 1.3.1 Electricity Growths of Secondary and Tertiary Industries 57 1.3.2 Electricity Growths for Some Sectors 58 1.3.3 Electricity Growth Trends 60 1.3.4 Employment Analysis 64 References 65 Chapter 2: Challenge-Opportunity and Mutations in China ́s Economy 66 2.1 Review of Electricity and Energy Supply in China 67 2.1.1 Electric Power Supply 67 2.1.2 Coal Production and Consumption 73 2.1.3 Oil Production and Consumption 79 2.1.4 Natural Gas Production and Consumption 81 2.1.5 Hydro-, Nuclear, and Wind Power Production and Consumption 83 2.1.6 Total Energy Production and Consumption 83 2.2 Emissions 88 2.2.1 Air Pollutions 88 2.2.2 Water Pollutions 90 2.2.3 People ́s Health Problems 90 2.3 Economic Mutation 95 2.3.1 Mutations of the Economy in the USA 96 2.3.2 Mutations of the Economy in Japan 99 2.3.3 Mutations of the Economy in China 104 2.4 Findings 105 References 106 Chapter 3: Economic Gene Mapping of China 107 3.1 Gene Mapping of an Economy 108 3.1.1 Economic Gene Mapping 108 3.1.2 Economic Gene Maps of the USA 109 3.1.3 Economic Gene Maps of Japan 110 3.2 Economic Simulation in China (BAU Scenario) 111 3.2.1 Production Growths of 42 Sectors 114 3.2.2 Value-Added Growths of Three Industries 121 3.2.3 Energy Demand and Supply 122 3.3 Economic Simulation of Fiscal and Monetary Policy (Policy Scenario) 124 3.3.1 Production Growths of 42 Sectors 125 3.3.2 Value-Added Growths of Three Industries 132 3.3.3 Energy Demand and Supply 134 3.4 Economic Gene Mapping of China 136 3.4.1 Economic Gene Maps of China ́s National Economy 136 3.4.2 Economic Gene Maps for Three Industries 139 3.4.3 Economic Gene Maps for Sectors 143 3.5 Comparison of Gene Maps of China and Japan 147 3.5.1 Economic Development Stage 149 3.5.2 A Negative Mutation in the Economic Stage 150 3.5.3 Similarities and Differences of Gene Maps of China and Japan 153 3.6 Findings 154 References 156 Part II: Methodology of Agent Response Equilibrium 157 Chapter 4: Review of Economic Modeling 158 4.1 Economic Activities 158 4.2 Input-Output Table 160 4.3 Computable General Equilibrium Model 164 4.3.1 Social Accounting Matrix 164 4.3.2 Introduction of the CGE Model 165 4.3.3 Applications of the CGE Model 166 4.4 Intelligent Agent and Simulation 168 4.5 Agent-Based Computational Economics 171 4.5.1 Introduction of the ACE Model 171 4.5.2 Applications of the ACE Model 172 References 175 Chapter 5: Introduction of Intelligent Engineering 177 5.1 Introduction 177 5.2 Generalized Model 180 5.2.1 Mathematical Model 181 5.2.2 Rule-Based Model 182 5.2.3 Fuzzy Inference Model 183 5.2.4 Neural Network Model 183 5.2.5 Hybrid Model 184 5.3 Intelligent Space 185 5.3.1 Concepts 185 5.3.2 Problem B1 190 5.3.3 Problem B2 192 References 193 Chapter 6: Agent Response Equilibrium Model 194 6.1 Agent 194 6.1.1 Definition 194 6.1.2 Classification 195 6.1.3 Features 196 6.1.4 Self-Learning 197 6.2 Multi-agent Model 197 6.2.1 Multi-agent System 197 6.2.2 Multi-agent Model 197 6.3 Introduction to ARE Model 198 6.3.1 ARE Model 198 6.3.2 ARE Model Framework 199 6.3.3 Functions of Agents 200 6.3.4 Features of ARE Model 202 6.4 Design of ARE Model 202 6.4.1 Model Structure 202 6.4.2 Interaction Mechanism Assumptions 203 6.4.3 Assumptions 204 6.4.4 Database Design 205 6.4.5 Rule Base Design 205 6.4.6 Self-Learning Rules of Agents 206 6.4.7 Communication Mechanism 207 6.4.8 Energy Consumption Calculation 209 References 211 Chapter 7: Individual Agent Functions and Computer Programming 212 7.1 Individual Agent 212 7.1.1 Sector Agent 212 7.1.2 Market Agent 217 7.1.3 International Commodity Market Agent 219 7.1.4 Government Agent 220 7.1.5 Central Bank Agent 221 7.1.6 Commercial Bank Agent 222 7.1.7 Resident Agent 223 7.2 Computer Program of ARE Model 224 7.2.1 The Computer Program Flowchart 224 7.2.2 Computer Programming Environment 224 7.2.3 Typical Statements of the Computer Program 227 7.3 Input Data of ARE Model 230 7.3.1 IO Data Input 230 7.3.2 Financial Data Input 235 7.3.3 Labor Data Input 236 7.3.4 Production Function Data Input 237 7.3.5 Tax Data Input 238 7.4 Parameters 241 7.4.1 Elasticity 241 7.4.2 Monetary Parameters 243 References 243 Part III: China ́s Economic Simulations by Agents Response Equilibrium 244 Chapter 8: China ́s Economic Simulation for the Period of Global Crisis 245 8.1 Evaluation Rules of Economic Simulation by the ARE Model 246 8.2 Review of China ́s Economy in 2007 247 8.3 Economic Simulation for 2008 254 8.3.1 Assumptions 254 8.3.2 Results 255 8.3.3 Calibrations 263 8.4 Economic Simulation for 2009 265 8.4.1 Assumptions 265 8.4.2 Results 265 8.4.3 Calibrations 271 8.5 Economic Simulation for 2010 274 8.5.1 Assumptions 274 8.5.2 Results 275 8.5.3 Calibrations 281 8.6 Update of Input-Output Table 284 Chapter 9: China ́s Economic Simulations in 2011-2014 by Agent Response Equilibrium Model 286 9.1 Summary of Evaluation Rules on Economic Simulation of ARE Model 286 9.2 Economic Simulation for 2011 by ARE Model 287 9.2.1 Fiscal and Monetary Policies 287 9.2.2 Simulation Results 288 9.2.3 Error Analysis 295 9.3 Economic Simulation for 2012 by ARE Model 296 9.3.1 Fiscal and Monetary Policies 296 9.3.2 Simulation Results 296 9.3.3 Error Analysis 305 9.4 Economic Simulation for 2013 by ARE Model 307 9.4.1 Fiscal and Monetary Policies 307 9.4.2 Simulation Results 307 9.4.3 Error Analysis 315 9.5 Economic Simulation for 2014 by ARE Model 316 9.5.1 Fiscal and Monetary Policies 316 9.5.2 Simulation Results 317 9.5.3 Error Analysis 325 9.6 Summary and Conclusion 326 Chapter 10: China ́s Input-Output Tables of 2011-2025 Simulated by ARE 327 10.1 Input-Output Tables of 2011-2014 in China 327 10.1.1 Input-Output Tables 329 10.1.2 Analysis 329 10.2 Input-Output Tables of 2015-2025 (BAU Scenario) 355 10.2.1 Input-Output Tables 355 10.2.2 Analysis 422 10.3 Input-Output Tables of 2015-2025 (Policy Scenario) 428 10.3.1 Input-Output Tables 428 10.3.2 Analysis 496 Front Matter....Pages i-xviii Front Matter....Pages 1-1 China’s Electricity Economy....Pages 3-47 Challenge–Opportunity and Mutations in China’s Economy....Pages 49-89 Economic Gene Mapping of China....Pages 91-140 Front Matter....Pages 141-141 Review of Economic Modeling....Pages 143-161 Introduction of Intelligent Engineering....Pages 163-179 Agent Response Equilibrium Model....Pages 181-198 Individual Agent Functions and Computer Programming....Pages 199-230 Front Matter....Pages 231-231 China’s Economic Simulation for the Period of Global Crisis....Pages 233-273 China’s Economic Simulations in 2011–2014 by Agent Response Equilibrium Model....Pages 275-315 China’s Input–Output Tables of 2011–2025 Simulated by ARE....Pages 317-491