CENAS: Coastline Evolution of the Upper Adriatic Sea due to Sea Level Rise and Natural and Anthropogenic Land Subsidence (Water Science and Technology Library Book 28)

The Upper Adriatic Sea basin comprises a very precarious coastal environment subject to continuous changes which prove appreciable not only over the geological scale but also in historical and modern times. According to some Authors the Venice Lagoon was formed 2000-3000 years ago, and other lagoons (e. g. the Grado Lagoon in the northernmost part of the Adriatic) are even more recent. In addition to lagoons, the Upper Adriatic coastal area includes salt and fresh-water marshes and reclaimed land separated by several watercourses originating from the Alpine and Apennine ranges with a ground elevation not exceeding in many places 2 m above the mean sea l. evel (msl). A significant fraction of this lowland is already now below msl because of natural and anthropogenic land subsidence, land reclamation and sea level rise occurred over the last century. Natural land subsidence is still under way as a result of deep downward tec­ tonic movement and consolidation of soils deposited in the most recent time. An­ thropogenic subsidence is primarily due to groundwater pumping for agricultural, industrial, civil, and tourist use, and to gas withdrawal from a large number of gas fields scattered through the Upper Adriatic basin, and may still continue, al­ though at a reduced rate, in the years to come. At the same time msl is expected to rise in the next century due to global climate change, mainly because of the greenhouse effect. Front Matter....Pages i-xiii Coastal Evolution of the Upper Adriatic Sea due to Sea Level Rise and Natural and Anthropic Land Subsidence....Pages 1-34 Prediction of Mean Sea Level Rise in the Upper Adriatic Sea....Pages 35-55 Collection and analysis of historical data on shoreline evolution at the sites of Ravenna, Cesenatico and Rimini....Pages 57-75 Numerical Modeling of Natural Land Subsidence over Sedimentary Basins Undergoing Large Compaction....Pages 77-102 Numerical Analysis of Land Subsidence due to Natural Compaction of the Upper Adriatic Sea Basin....Pages 103-131 Simulation of Land Subsidence Due to Gas Production at Ravenna Coastline....Pages 133-150 Prediction of Land Subsidence Due to Groundwater Withdrawal along the Emilia-Romagna Coast....Pages 151-168 Wave refraction in the Upper Adriatic Sea....Pages 169-183 Storm Wave Simulation in the Adriatic Sea....Pages 185-205 Storm Surge Simulations in the Adriatic Sea....Pages 207-232 Coastal Morphodynamics in Subsiding Areas....Pages 233-262 Local Morphological Evolution of the Coast in the Upper Adriatic Sea. Design and Management Strategies to Control Coastal Erosion....Pages 263-289 Geographic Information System (GIS) and Data Management and Retrieval System (DMRS) in the CENAS Project....Pages 291-312 Flood Risk Analysis in the Upper Adriatic Sea due to Storm Surge, Tide, Waves, and Natural and Anthropic Land Subsidence....Pages 313-324 Back Matter....Pages 325-346 The CENAS Project funded by the EU as part of the Environmental Programme 1990-1994 addresses the issue of the coastland evolution of the Eastern Po Plain and future stability of the Upper Adriatic coastline in relation to mean sea level rise, natural and anthropogenic land subsidence, severe meteo-marine events and reduced sediment inflow from the watercourses. The huge amount of information needed to perform the study and the numerical models developed to make predictions of the various events are integrated into and handled by a Geographical Information System (GIS) combined with a DMRS (Data Management and Retrieval System) and a DEM (Digital Elevation Model) of the area of interest. Numerical modelling predictions up to 2100 of the major processes which may impact on the Upper Adriatic morphodynamics point out the precariousness of this coastal environment, especially south of the Po river delta where much of the present lowland is expected to be submerged by the end of the next century and most of the area flooded during a storm with only a one-year return period. The integrated modelling approach used in the CENAS Project is believed to be a good example of morphodynamical analysis that may be extended to other coastal areas of the world.