Butterfly Economics : A New General Theory of Social and Economic Behavior

Why did VHS, an inferior video recording technology, succeed in the marketplace, driving the superior Betamax out of business? Why do big-budget, acclaimed movies sometimes flop at the box office, while low-budget, idiosyncratic films become huge hits? The answers to these questions, says Paul Omerod, remind us that economics is a science based on the workings of human society, as unpredictable an entity as there is. "Conventional economics is mistaken," claimes Omerod, "when it views the economy as a machine, whose behavior, no matter how complicated, is ultimately predictable and controllable." In this cogently and elegantly argued analysis of why human beings persist in engaging in behavior that defies time-honored economic theory, Omerod also explains why governments and industries throughout the world must completely reconfigure their traditional methods of economic forecasting if they are to succeed and prosper in an increasingly global marketplace. Why Did Vhs, An Inferior Video Recorder Technology, Succeed In The Marketplace, Driving The Superior Betamax Out Of Business? Why Do Big-budget, Acclaimed Movies Sometimes Flop At The Box Office, While Low-budget, Idiosyncratic Films Become Huge Hits? The Answers To These Questions, Says Paul Ormerod, Remind Us That Economics Is A Science Based On The Workings Of Human Society, As Unpredictable An Entity As There Is. In This Analysis Of Why Human Beings Persist In Engaging In Behavior That Defies Time-honored Economic Theory, Ormerod Also Explains Why Governments And Industries Throughout The World Must Completely Reconfigure Their Traditional Methods Of Economic Forecasting If They Are To Succeed And Prosper In An Increasingly Complicated Global Marketplace.--jacket. Ch. 1. Living At The Edge Of Chaos -- Ch. 2. Dedicated Followers Of Fashion -- Ch. 3. To Catch A Thief -- Ch. 4. Family Values -- Ch. 5. 'use The Maths, Then Burn It' -- Ch. 6. Illusion Of Control -- Ch. 7. Quantitative Quagmire -- Ch. 8. Ups And Downs -- Ch. 9. Through A Glass Darkly -- Ch. 10. Wealth Of Nations -- Ch. 11. To Have And Have Not -- Ch. 12. Great Oaks From Little Acorns. Paul Ormerod. Includes Bibliographical References (p. 201-203) And Index. "Paul Ormerod, renowned as the thinking person's economist, tears up conventional wisdom and explains why the economy is so much more than the sum of its parts. Taking in the latest scientific, social and mathematical theories, Ormerod argues that the economy must be viewed as more like a living organism than a machine. Like society itself, it is a complex system, living at the edge of chaos."--BOOK JACKET. "For economics, the implications of complexity theory are enormous. Paul Ormerod is the first to think them through. He suggests that both left- and right-wing policies on such issues as unemployment, poor regions or lone parents have been doomed to a very high rate of failure. Much of the control that governments believe they exercise over the economy and society is illusory. Instead government ministers - and people in the business world - need to adopt quite different mindsets and less heavy-handed approaches. Hence 'Butterfly Economics'."--BOOK JACKET.