Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting (Volume 27) (National Bureau of Economic Research Studies in Business Cycles)

this Volume Presents The Most Complete Collection Available Of The Work Of Victor Zarnowitz, A Leader In The Study Of Business Cycles, Growth, Inflation, And Forecasting.. with Characteristic Insight, Zarnowitz Examines Theories Of The Business Cycle, Including Keynesian And Monetary Theories And More Recent Rational Expectation And Real Business Cycle Theories. He Also Measures Trends And Cycles In Economic Activity; Evaluates The Performance Of Leading Indicators And Their Composite Measures; Surveys Forecasting Tools And Performance Of Business And Academic Economists; Discusses Historical Changes In The Nature And Sources Of Business Cycles; And Analyzes How Successfully Forecasting Firms And Economists Predict Such Key Economic Variables As Interest Rates And Inflation. Contents......Page 8 Acknowledgments......Page 18 About the Author......Page 20 How Your Credit Score Affects You......Page 22 What It Costs Long Term to Have a Poor or Mediocre Credit Score......Page 24 How Credit Scoring Came into Being......Page 27 How Credit Use Has Changed Over the Years......Page 28 Consumer's Fight for Truth About Credit Scores......Page 29 Credit Scoring's Vulnerability to Errors......Page 30 Credit Scoring's Complexity......Page 31 Credit Scoring's Potential Unfairness......Page 32 Conclusion......Page 33 2 How Credit Scoring Works......Page 34 What Is a Good Score?......Page 37 Your Credit Report: The Building Blocks for Your Score......Page 38 How Your Score Is Calculated......Page 39 Your Payment History......Page 40 How Much You Owe......Page 41 Your Last Application for Credit......Page 42 Your Credit Scorecard......Page 43 Your Results Might Differ......Page 45 How Do I Get My Score?......Page 46 3 VantageScore—A Revolution or Just More of the Same?......Page 50 The VantageScore Scale......Page 51 How VantageScores Are Calculated......Page 52 Comparing the Scoring Systems......Page 53 Some Rules Remain the Same......Page 54 VantageScore's Future......Page 55 So Which Is Better?......Page 57 Step 1: Start with Your Credit Report......Page 58 Check the Identifying Information......Page 59 Carefully Review the Credit Accounts......Page 60 Parse Through Your Inquiries......Page 61 Dispute the Errors......Page 62 Step 2: Pay Your Bills on Time......Page 63 How to Make Sure Your Bills Get Paid on Time, All the Time......Page 64 You Need to Reduce What You Owe, Rather Than Just Moving Your Balances Around......Page 68 You Need to Pay Attention to How Much You Charge—Even If You Pay Your Balances Off in Full Every Month......Page 69 Step 4: Don't Close Credit Cards or Other Revolving Accounts......Page 71 How to Get a Credit Score If You Don't Have Credit......Page 72 Credit Scores Without Credit......Page 76 5 Credit Scoring Myths......Page 78 Myth 1: Closing Credit Accounts Will Help Your Score......Page 79 Myth 2: You Can Boost Your Score By Asking Your Credit Card Company to Lower Your Limits......Page 80 Myth 3: You Can Hurt Your Score By Checking Your Own Credit Report......Page 81 Myth 4: You Can Hurt Your Score By Shopping Around for the Best Rates......Page 82 Myth 5: You Don't Have to Use Credit to Get a Good Credit Score......Page 83 Myth 6: You Have to Pay Interest to Have a Good Credit Score......Page 84 Myth 7: Adding a 100-Word Statement to Your File Can Help Your Score If You Have an Unresolved Dispute with a Lender......Page 85 Myth 9: Credit Counseling Is Worse Than Bankruptcy......Page 86 Myth 10: Bankruptcy Hurts Your Score So Much That It's Impossible to Get Credit......Page 87 6 Coping with a Credit Crisis......Page 90 Step 1: Figure Out How to Free Up Some Cash......Page 93 Task 1: Prioritize Your Bills......Page 96 Task 2: Match Your Resources to Your Bills and Debts......Page 98 Task 3: Figuring Out a Repayment Plan......Page 99 The Real Scoop on Credit Counseling......Page 101 Should You File for Bankruptcy?......Page 105 The Effects of Bankruptcy Reform......Page 106 The Type of Bankruptcy That You File Matters......Page 107 Step 3: Choose Your Path and Take Action......Page 108 Option 3: Bankruptcy......Page 109 7 Rebuilding Your Score After a Credit Disaster......Page 110 Scrutinize Your Report for Serious Errors......Page 112 Know Your Rights......Page 114 Organize Your Attack......Page 115 What You Need to Know About Unpaid Debts and Collections......Page 116 What You Need to Know About Statutes of Limitations......Page 120 Should You Pay Old Debts?......Page 123 "But You've Got the Wrong Guy!"......Page 126 Borrow Someone Else's History......Page 127 Get Some Credit or Charge Cards If You Don't Have Any......Page 128 Use the Credit You Have......Page 129 Don't Commit the Biggest Credit Repair Mistakes......Page 130 8 Identity Theft and Your Credit......Page 132 New Laws That Might Help......Page 136 Protect Your Outgoing Mail......Page 138 Get Stingy with Your Social Security Number......Page 139 Ask About Shredding Policies......Page 140 Opt Out of Credit Card Solicitations, Junk Mail, and Telemarketing......Page 141 Be Wary of Telephone Solicitors and Emails Purporting to Be from Financial Institutions......Page 142 Monitor Your Credit Reports......Page 143 Consider a Credit Freeze......Page 145 Keep Good Notes of Every Conversation You Have Regarding the ID Theft......Page 152 Contact the Police or Local Sheriff......Page 153 Contact the Collection Agencies......Page 154 Don't Give Up......Page 155 What to Do If the Credit Bureau Won't Budge......Page 157 9 Emergency! Fixing Your Credit Score Fast......Page 160 Repairing Your Credit in a Matter of Hours: Rapid Rescoring......Page 161 Pay Off Your Credit Cards and Lines of Credit......Page 164 Use the Bureaus' Online Dispute Process......Page 165 Disputing Everything in Sight......Page 166 Closing Troublesome Accounts......Page 167 10 Insurance and Your Credit Score......Page 168 History of Using Credit Scores to Price Insurance Premiums......Page 170 But What's the Connection?......Page 172 What Goes into an Insurance Score......Page 176 Start Thinking Differently About Insurance......Page 177 Raise Your Deductibles......Page 178 Don't Make Certain Kinds of Claims......Page 179 Use the Right Liability Limits......Page 181 Shop Around......Page 182 Protect Your Score......Page 183 11 Keeping Your Score Healthy......Page 184 Pay Off Your Credit Card Balances......Page 185 Have an Emergency Fund......Page 187 Have Adequate Insurance......Page 189 Don't Buy More House Than You Can Afford......Page 190 Don't Let Your Fixed Expenses Eat Up Your Income......Page 192 Don't Raid Your Retirement or Your Home Equity to Pay Off Credit Cards......Page 193 Credit and Divorce: How Your Ex Can Kill Your Score......Page 194 Take Action......Page 195 Dealing with Mortgages, Car Loans, and Other Secured Debt......Page 196 Look for Lenders Who Aren't FICO-Driven......Page 197 In Conclusion: The Three-Year Solution......Page 198 A......Page 200 B......Page 201 C......Page 202 D......Page 206 E......Page 207 F......Page 208 I......Page 209 L......Page 211 M......Page 212 N......Page 213 P......Page 214 Q-R......Page 215 S......Page 216 V......Page 217 W-X-Y-Z......Page 218 Victor Zarnowitz has long been a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting. These papers represent a carefully integrated and up-to-date study of business cycles, reexamining some of his earlier research as well as addressing recent developments in the literature and in history. In part one, Zarnowitz reviews with characteristic insight various theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories as well as more recent rational expectations and real business cycle theories. In doing so, he examines how the business cycle may have changed as the size of government, the exercise of fiscal and monetary policies, the openness of the economy to international forces, and the industrial structure have evolved over time. Emphasizing important research from the 1980s, Zarnowitz discusses in part two various measures of the trends and cycles in economic activity, including output, prices, inventories, investment in residential and nonresidential structures, equipment, and other economic variables. Here the author explores the duration and severity of U.S. business cycles over more than 150 years, and evaluates the ability of macro models to simulate past behavior of the economy. In part three the performance of leading, coincident, and lagging indicators is described and assessed and evidence is presented on the value of their composite measures. Finally, part four offers an analysis of the degree of success of large commercial forecasting firms and of many individual economists in predicting the course of inflation, real growth, unemployment, interest rates, and other key economic variables. Business Cycles is a timely study, certain to become a basic reference for professional forecasters and economists in government, academia, and the business community

This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting..

With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.

Annotation. This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.