Brokering Peace in Nuclear Environments : U.S. Crisis Management in South Asia

This book is the first to theorize third party mediation in crises between regional nuclear powers. Its relevance flows from two of the most significant international developments since the end of the Cold War: the emergence of regional nuclear rivalries; and the shift from the Cold War’s bipolar context to today’s unipolar international setting. Moving away from the traditional bilateral deterrence models, the book conceptualizes crisis behavior as “brokered bargaining”: a three-way bargaining framework where the regional rivals and the ‘third party’ seek to influence each other to behave in line with their crisis objectives and in so doing, affect each other’s crisis behavior. The book tests brokered bargaining theory by examining U.S.-led crisis management in South Asia, analyzing three major crises between India and Pakistan: the Kargil conflict, 1999; the 2001-02 nuclear standoff; and the Mumbai crisis, 2008. The case studies find strong evidence of behavior predicted by the brokered bargaining framework. They also shed light on several risks of misperceptions and inadvertence due to the challenges inherent in signaling to multiple audiences simultaneously. Traditional explanations rooted in bilateral deterrence models do not account for these, leaving a void with serious practical consequences, which the introduction of brokered bargaining seeks to fill. The book’s findings also offer lessons for crises on the Korean peninsula, between China and India, and between potential nuclear rivals in the Middle East. Nuclear Deterrence Strategies Remain Rooted In Cold War Models That Do Not Take Into Account Conflict Between Regional Powers. Brokering Peace In Nuclear Environments Offers An Innovative Theory Of Brokered Bargaining To Better Understand And Solve Regional Crises. Drawing On The History Of Conflict In Nuclear South Asia, Moeed Yusuf Describes The Potential For Third-party Intervention To Avert Nuclear War. Moving Beyond The Widely Accepted Rational Deterrence Model, Yusuf Offers An Original Perspective Rooted In Thoughtful Analysis Of The Ways Regional Powers Behave And Maneuver In Response To The Pressures Of Strong Global Powers. With Depth And Insight, This Book Urges The International Community To Rethink Its Approach To Nuclear Deterrence--back Cover. Introduction : Regional Nuclear Crises In A Unipolar World -- Section I. Conceptual And Theoretical Issues. Understanding Nuclear Crisis Behavior : A Survey Of The Literature -- Setting Up The Inquiry : An Introduction To Brokered Bargaining -- Section Ii. India-pakistan Crises In The Overt Nuclear Era. The Kargil Crisis -- The 2001-2002 Military Standoff -- The Mumbai Crisis -- Section Iii. Lessons And Implications. Brokered Bargaining : Observations And Lessons For South Asia -- Beyond South Asia : Generalizing The Application Of Brokered Bargaining -- Brokered Bargaining : Implications For Theory And Practice. Moeed Yusuf. Includes Bibliographical References (pages 221-292) And Index. One of the gravest issues facing the global community today is the threat of nuclear war. As a growing number of nations gain nuclear capabilities, the odds of nuclear conflict increase. Yet nuclear deterrence strategies remain rooted in Cold War models that do not take into account regional conflict. Brokering Peace in Nuclear Environments offers an innovative theory of brokered bargaining to better understand and solve regional crises. As the world has moved away from the binational relationships that defined Cold War conflict while nuclear weapons have continued to proliferate, new types of nuclear threats have arisen. Moeed Yusuf proposes a unique approach to deterrence that takes these changing factors into account. Drawing on the history of conflict between India and Pakistan, Yusuf describes the potential for third-party intervention to avert nuclear war. This book lays out the ways regional powers behave and maneuver in response to the pressures of strong global powers. Moving beyond debates surrounding the widely accepted rational deterrence model, Yusuf offers an original perspective rooted in thoughtful analysis of recent regional nuclear conflicts. With depth and insight, Brokering Peace in Nuclear Environments urges the international community to rethink its approach to nuclear deterrence. La 4e de couv. indique : "Nuclear deterrence strategies remain rooted in Cold War models that do not take into account conflict between regional powers. Brokering Peace in Nuclear Environments offers an innovative theory of brokered bargaining to better understand and solve regional crises. Drawing on the history of conflict in nuclear South Asia, Moeed Yusuf describes the potential for third-party intervention to avert nuclear war. Moving beyond the widely accepted rational deterrence model, Yusuf offers an original perspective rooted in thoughtful analysis of the ways regional powers behave and maneuver in response to the pressures of strong global powers. With depth and insight, this book urges the international community to rethink its approach to nuclear deterrence." This text theorizes third party mediation in crises between regional nuclear powers. Its relevance flows from two of the most significant international developments since the end of the Cold War: the emergence of regional nuclear rivalries; and the shift from the Cold War's bipolar context to today's unipolar international setting