Blood year : the unraveling of Western counterterrorism

2014 Has The Potential To Go Down As A Crucial Year In Modern World History. A Resurgent And Bellicose Russia Took Over Crimea And Fueled A Civil War In Eastern Ukraine. Post-saddam Iraq, In Many Respects A Creature Of The United States Because Of The War That Began In 2003, Lost A Third Of Its Territory To An Army Of Hyper-violent Millennialists. The Peace Process In Israel Seemed To Completely Collapse. Finally, After Coalescing In Syria As A Territorial Entity, The Islamic State Swept Into Northern Iraq And Through Northeastern Syria, Attracting Legions Of Recruits From Europe And The Middle East. In Short, The Post-cold War Security Order That The Us Had Constructed After 1991 Seemed To Be Coming Apart At The Seams. David Kilcullen Was One Of The Architects Of America's Strategy In The Late Phases Of The Second Gulf War, And Also Spent Time In Afghanistan And Other Hotspots.^ In Blood Year, He Provides A Wide-angle View Of The Current Situation In The Middle East And Analyzes How America And The West Ended Up In Such Dire Circumstances. Whereas In 2008 It Appeared That The U.s. Might Pull A Modest Stalemate From The Jaws Of Defeat In Iraq, Six Years Later The Situation Had Reversed. After America Pulled Out Of Iraq Completely In 2011, The Shi'ite President Cut Sunnis Out Of The Power Structure And Allowed Iranian Influence To Grow. And From The Debris Of Assad's Syria Arose An Extremist Sunni Organization Even More Radical Than Al Qaeda. Unlike Al Qaeda, Isis Was Intent On Establishing Its Own State, And Within A Remarkably Short Time They Did. Interestingly, Kilcullen Highlights How Embittered Former Iraqi Ba'athist Military Officers Were Key Contributors To Isis's Military Successes.^ Kilcullen Lays Much Of The Blame On Bush's Initial Decision To Invade Iraq (which Had Negative Secondary Effects In Afghanistan), But Also Takes Obama To Task For Simply Withdrawing And Adopting A Leading From Behind Strategy. As Events Have Proven, Kilcullen Contends, Withdrawal Was A Fundamentally Misguided Plan. The U.s. Had Uncorked The Genie, And It Had A Responsibility To At Least Attempt To Keep It Under Control. Instead, The U.s. Is At A Point Where Administration Officials State That The Losses Of Ramadi And Palmyra Are Manageable Setbacks. Kilcullen Argues That The U.s. Needs To Re-engage In The Region, Whether It Wants To Or Not, Because It Is Largely Responsible For The Situation That Is Now Unfolding. Blood Year Is An Essential Read For Anyone Interested In Understanding Not Only Why The Region That The U.s. Invaded A Dozen Years Ago Has Collapsed Into Utter Chaos, But Also What It Can Do To Alleviate The Grim Situation.--provided By Amazon.com. Debacle -- Disaggregation -- Abyss -- Waterfall -- Crocodile -- Tsunami -- Rebirth -- Collapse -- Retribution -- Rollback? -- Internationale -- Wilayat -- Khilafah -- Transformation -- Spillover -- Maskirovka -- Age Of Conflict. David Kilcullen. Includes Bibliographical References And Index. Présentation de l'éditeur : "2014 has the potential to go down as a crucial year in modern world history. A resurgent and bellicose Russia took over Crimea and fueled a civil war in Eastern Ukraine. Post-Saddam Iraq, in many respects a creature of the United States because of the war that began in 2003, lost a third of its territory to an army of hyper-violent millennialists. The peace process in Israel seemed to completely collapse. Finally, after coalescing in Syria as a territorial entity, the Islamic State swept into northern Iraq and through northeastern Syria, attracting legions of recruits from Europe and the Middle East. In short, the post-Cold War security order that the US had constructed after 1991 seemed to be coming apart at the seams. David Kilcullen was one of the architects of America's strategy in the late phases of the second Gulf War, and also spent time in Afghanistan and other hotspots. In Blood Year, he provides a wide-angle view of the current situation in the Middle East and analyzes how America and the West ended up in such dire circumstances. Whereas in 2008 it appeared that the U.S. might pull a modest stalemate from the jaws of defeat in Iraq, six years later the situation had reversed. After America pulled out of Iraq completely in 2011, the Shi'ite president cut Sunnis out of the power structure and allowed Iranian influence to grow. And from the debris of Assad's Syria arose an extremist Sunni organization even more radical than Al Qaeda. Unlike Al Qaeda, ISIS was intent on establishing its own state, and within a remarkably short time they did. Interestingly, Kilcullen highlights how embittered former Iraqi Ba'athist military officers were key contributors to ISIS's military successes. Kilcullen lays much of the blame on Bush's initial decision to invade Iraq (which had negative secondary effects in Afghanistan), but also takes Obama to task for simply withdrawing and adopting a "leading from behind" strategy. As events have proven, Kilcullen contends, withdrawal was a fundamentally misguided plan. The U.S. had uncorked the genie, and it had a responsibility to at least attempt to keep it under control. Instead, the U.S. is at a point where administration officials state that the losses of Ramadi and Palmyra are manageable setbacks. Kilcullen argues that the U.S. needs to re-engage in the region, whether it wants to or not, because it is largely responsible for the situation that is now unfolding. Blood Year is an essential read for anyone interested in understanding not only why the region that the U.S. invaded a dozen years ago has collapsed into utter chaos, but also what it can do to alleviate the grim situation." Annotation. We're now in the fifteenth year since 9/11 and, horrible though it is to contemplate, we may be nowhere close to the end of the War on Terror. For a while, it looked like things were improving: we were getting on top of the threat. But that was before ISIS began crucifying children, before the Taliban swept back out of the mountains to seize the cities, before the bodies of asylum-seekers began washing up on the beaches, before the first Russian cluster bomb fell on a Syrian village, before the first suicide vest exploded in a Paris concert hall.We have seen a "blood year"--massacres and beheadings, fallen cities, collapsed and collapsing states, the unravelling of a decade of foreign policy and military strategy. We witnessed the rise of ISIS, the splintering of government in Iraq, and a brutal Syrian civil war. What went wrong?In Blood Year, David Kilcullen calls on twenty-five years' experience to answer that question. He looks to strategy and history to make sense of the crisis. What are the roots of the global jihad movement? What is ISIS? What threats does it pose for Australia? What does its rise say about the effectiveness of the War on Terror since 9/11, and what does a coherent strategy look like after a disastrous year?Blood Year is a vivid, urgent account of the War on Terror by a thinker who helped shape its strategy and witnessed its evolution on the ground.Winner, Walkley Award for Feature Writing: "A rare and critical account from inside the war room . . . Gripping from beginning to end."'Expansive and ambitious . . . [Kilcullen] is a deft storyteller. The artful combination of his professional experience, insightful analysis and strategic recommendations makes for enthralling reading.' --the AustralianDavid Kilcullen is one of the world's foremost thinkers o n counterinsurgency and military strategy. He was senior advisor to General David Petraeus in 2007 and 2008, when he helped to design and monitor the Iraq War coalition troop "Surge." He was then appointed special advisor for counterinsurgency to U S Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. Before this, he was chief strategist in the Counterterrorism Bureau of the US State Department, and he has also advised the UK and Australian governments, NATO and the International Security Assistance Force. He is a former Australian Army officer and the author of three acclaimed books: The Accidental Guerrilla, Counterinsurgency and Out of the Mountains We’re Now In The Fifteenth Year Since 9/11 And, Horrible Though It Is To Contemplate, We May Be Nowhere Close To The End Of The War On Terror. For A While, It Looked Like Things Were Improving: We Were Getting On Top Of The Threat. But That Was Before Isis Began Crucifying Children, Before The Taliban Swept Back Out Of The Mountains To Seize The Cities, Before The Bodies Of Asylum-seekers Began Washing Up On The Beaches, Before The First Russian Cluster Bomb Fell On A Syrian Village, Before The First Suicide Vest Exploded In A Paris Concert Hall. We Have Seen A “blood Year”—massacres And Beheadings, Fallen Cities, Collapsed And Collapsing States, The Unravelling Of A Decade Of Foreign Policy And Military Strategy. We Witnessed The Rise Of Isis, The Splintering Of Government In Iraq, And A Brutal Syrian Civil War. What Went Wrong? In Blood Year, David Kilcullen Calls On Twenty-five Years’ Experience To Answer That Question. He Looks To Strategy And History To Make Sense Of The Crisis. What Are The Roots Of The Global Jihad Movement? What Is Isis? What Threats Does It Pose For Australia? What Does Its Rise Say About The Effectiveness Of The War On Terror Since 9/11, And What Does A Coherent Strategy Look Like After A Disastrous Year? Blood Year Is A Vivid, Urgent Account Of The War On Terror By A Thinker Who Helped Shape Its Strategy And Witnessed Its Evolution On The Ground. Winner, Walkley Award For Feature Writing: “a Rare And Critical Account From Inside The War Room . . . Gripping From Beginning To End.” ‘expansive And Ambitious . . . [kilcullen] Is A Deft Storyteller. The Artful Combination Of His Professional Experience, Insightful Analysis And Strategic Recommendations Makes For Enthralling Reading.’ —the Australian Cover 1 BLOOD YEAR: The Unraveling of Western Counterterroism 4 COPYRIGHT 5 DEDICATION 6 CONTENTS 8 PREFACE 10 NOTE ON SOURCES 12 MAP 13 1: DEBACLE 20 United Arab Emirates, November 2014 20 2: DISAGGREGATION 26 Canberra and Washington D.C., 2004–5 26 3: ABYSS 34 Iraq and Afghanistan, 2005–6 34 4: WATERFALL 56 Baghdad and the Belts, 2007 56 5: CROCODILE 64 Iraq after the Surge 64 6: TSUNAMI 72 Pakistan, Iraq and the Greater Middle East, 2011–14 72 7: REBIRTH 86 Iraq, Libya and Syria, 2011–14 86 8: COLLAPSE 102 The Fall of Maliki’s Iraq 102 9: RETRIBUTION 106 War with the Caliphate, 2014–15 106 10: ROLLBACK? 120 Iraq and Syria, Winter 2014–15 120 11: INTERNATIONALE 130 The Atomized Threat, 2014–15 130 12: WILAYAT 146 ISIS Overseas Territories, 2015 146 13: KHILAFAH 152 Tikrit, Ramadi and Palmyra, March–May 2015 152 14: TRANSFORMATION 170 Syria and Iraq, Summer 2015 170 15: SPILLOVER 186 Europe and Afghanistan, Autumn 2015 186 16: MASKIROVKA 204 Enter the Russians 204 17: AGE OF CONFLICT 216 Rethinking Counterterrorism 216 EPILOGUE 238 Insights From the Forever War 238 Don’t confuse bad management with destiny 248 Never think: “This is as bad as it gets” 248 Strategy, without resources and sequencing, is fantasy 249 Battlefield success is not victory 249 You can’t fight without fighting 250 NOTES 252 PREFACE 252 1. DEBACLE 252 2. DISAGGREGATION 253 3. ABYSS 254 4. WATERFALL 256 5. CROCODILE 257 6. TSUNAMI 258 7. REBIRTH 259 8. COLLAPSE 262 9. RETRIBUTION 262 10. ROLLBACK? 263 11. INTERNATIONALE 263 12. WILAYAT 264 13. KHILAFAH 266 14. TRANSFORMATION 268 15. SPILLOVER 271 16. MASKIROVKA 273 17. AGE OF CONFLICT 275 EPILOGUE 276 INDEX 278 We're now in the fifteenth year since 9/11 and, horrible though it is to contemplate, we may be nowhere close to the end of the War on Terror. For a while, it looked like things were improving and we were getting on top of the threat. But that was before ISIS began crucifying children, before the Taliban swept back out of the mountains to seize the cities, before the bodies of asylum-seekers began washing up on the beaches, before the first Russian cluster bomb fell on a Syrian village, before the first suicide vest exploded in a Paris concert hall. We have seen a 'blood year' - massacres and beheadings, fallen cities, collapsed and collapsing states, the unravelling of a decade of foreign policy and military strategy. We witnessed the rise of ISIS, the splintering of government in Iraq, and a brutal Syrian civil war. What went wrong? In 'Blood year', David Kilcullen calls on twenty-five years' experience to answer that question. He looks to strategy and history to make sense of the crisis. What are the roots of the global jihad movement? What is ISIS? What threats does it pose for Australia? What does its rise say about the effectiveness of the War on Terror since 9/11, and what does a coherent strategy look like after a disastrous year? 'Blood year' is a vivid, urgent account of the War on Terror by a thinker who helped shape its strategy and witnessed its evolution on the ground In Blood Year, David Kilcullen provides a wide-angle view of the current situation in the Middle East and analyzes how America and the West ended up in such dire circumstances. Focusing on the events of 2014--a year of massacres and beheadings, fallen cities and collapsing states--as a potential turning point in modern world history, this is an essential read for anyone interested in understanding not only why the region that the U.S. invaded a dozen years ago has collapsed into utter chaos, but also what it can do to alleviate the grim situation. Read more... Abstract: In Blood Year, David Kilcullen provides a wide-angle view of the current situation in the Middle East and analyzes how America and the West ended up in such dire circumstances. Focusing on the events of 2014--a year of massacres and beheadings, fallen cities and collapsing states--as a potential turning point in modern world history, this is an essential read for anyone interested in understanding not only why the region that the U.S. invaded a dozen years ago has collapsed into utter chaos, but also what it can do to alleviate the grim situation 2014 Was A 'red Year' - Massacres And Beheadings, Fallen Cities, Collapsed And Collapsing States, The Unravelling Of A Decade Of Foreign Policy And Military Strategy. 'blood Year' In An Unsparingly Honest, Self-critical Analysis Of The Collapse Of Western Counterterrorism Strategy, By One Of Its Original Architects.