Big Bets and Black Swans 2014: A Presidential Briefing Book (Brookings Essay)

div pPresident Obama has just three years left in office to define his legacy in world affairs. He's facing a number of critical challengesthe ongoing war in Syria, the Iran nuclear negotiations, an enigmatic North Korea and other significant crises in world affairs. The president's advisors are busy devising policy recommendations aimed at grappling with these thorny issues. From these, the president must decide which priorities to pursue and how to best exercise U.S. power and influence to manage and shape the global order./p pThis book presents a set of policy analysis and recommendations from The Foreign Policy scholars at the Brookings Institution. Designed to provide the White House with innovative and actionable policy initiatives, the book is constructed as a series of memos to President Obama. This year, the memos are divided into five categories:/p p Big Bets are issues where the president should consider investing his power, time and prestige in major efforts that can have a transformational impact on America and the world. Double Downs are derived from the Big Bets from last year's recommendations that the president should redouble his efforts on./p p Black Swans are those low-probability but high-impact events that can divert the president and his administration's higher purposes, such as dramatic negative events that he will want to take steps in advance to avoid or to mitigate their consequences./p p Nightmares are events that look more likely than a Black Swan and could prove particularly troublesome for U.S. interests and the global order, and for which the administration should prepare./p p Holds are updated policy recommendations to stay the course on approaches suggested last year./p /div

President Obama has just three years left in office to define his legacy in world affairs. He's facing a number of critical challenges—the ongoing war in Syria, the Iran nuclear negotiations, an enigmatic North Korea and other significant crises in world affairs. The president's advisors are busy devising policy recommendations aimed at grappling with these thorny issues. From these, the president must decide which priorities to pursue and how to best exercise U.S. power and influence to manage and shape the global order.

This book presents a set of policy analysis and recommendations from The Foreign Policy scholars at the Brookings Institution. Designed to provide the White House with innovative and actionable policy initiatives, the book is constructed as a series of memos to President Obama. This year, the memos are divided into five categories:

• Big Bets are issues where the president should consider investing his power, time and prestige in major efforts that can have a transformational impact on America and the world. • Double Downs are derived from the Big Bets from last year's recommendations that the president should redouble his efforts on.

• Black Swans are those low-probability but high-impact events that can divert the president and his administration's higher purposes, such as dramatic negative events that he will want to take steps in advance to avoid or to mitigate their consequences.

• Nightmares are events that look more likely than a Black Swan and could prove particularly troublesome for U.S. interests and the global order, and for which the administration should prepare.

• Holds are updated policy recommendations to stay the course on approaches suggested last year.

Introduction / Ted Piccone, Steven Pifer, and Thomas Wright -- Reassert U.S. leadership of a liberal global order / Robert Kagan and Ted Piccone -- Secure the future of the Internet / Peter W. Singer and Ian Wallace -- Solidify the U.S.-Afghanistan alliance / Michael E. O'Hanlon and Gen. John Allen (USMC, Ret.) -- Lift the ban on U.S. oil exports / Tim Boersma and Charles K. Ebinger -- Strengthen stability in Africa / Michael E. O'Hanlon -- Broaden the approach to Iran / Suzanne Maloney -- Pursue regime change in Syria / Michael Doran -- Return to the Asia rebalance / Jonathan D. Pollack and Jeffrey A. Bader -- Reach out to Cuba / Ted Piccone -- Avert conflict in the South and East China seas / Richard C. Bush III, Bruce Jones, and Jonathan D. Pollack -- Israeli-Palestinian violence erupts / Natan B. Sachs -- Putin's Russia goes rogue / Fiona Hill and Steven Pifer -- Venezuela breaks down in violence / Harold Trinkunas -- Korean crisis prompts confrontation with China / Jonathan D. Pollack and Richard C. Bush III -- Iran nuclear talks fail / Robert Einhorn and Kenneth Pollack -- Afghanistan's presidential election goes awry / Vanda Felbab-Brown -- Muslim Brotherhood radicalizes / Daniel L. Byman and Tamara Cofman Wittes -- Avoid a U.S.-Saudi divorce / Bruce Riedel -- Close the deal on free trade / Mireya Solis -- Manage the impact of climate change / Elizabeth Ferris -- Deepen economic ties to Turkey / Kemal Kirişci. Ted Piccone, Steven Pifer, and Thomas Wright, editors. Includes bibliographical references and index. Mode of access: World Wide Web. "[A] series of memos designed to present President Obama with a suggested "to do" list, addressing the most significant foreign policy challenges in the year to come. It builds on our widely read Brookings Foreign Policy briefing book released in January 2013. This year, the memos are divided into five categories: Big Bets, Double Downs, Black Swans, Nightmares and Holds ..." (Introduction, p. iii) Designed to provide the white house with innovative and actionable policy initiatives, this book is constructed as a series of memos to President Obama. It presents a set of policy analysis and recommendations from The Foreign Policy scholars at the Brookings Institution.