Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: A Report Prepared for the National Climate Assessment (NCA Regional Input Reports)

Prepared For The 2013 National Climate Assessment And A Landmark Study In Terms Of Its Breadth And Depth Of Coverage, This Report Blends The Contributions Of 120 Experts In Climate Science, Economics, Ecology, Engineering, Geography, Hydrology, Planning, Resources Management, And Other Disciplines To Provide The Most Comprehensive, And Understandable, Analysis To Date About Climate And Its Effects On The People And Landscapes Of Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, And Utah—including The U.s.-mexico Border Region And The Lands Of Native Nations. What Is The Climate Of The Southwest Like Today? What Has It Been Like In The Past, And How Is It Projected To Change Over The 21st Century? How Will That Affect Water Resources, Ecosystems, Agricultural Production, Energy Supply And Delivery, Transportation, Human Health, And A Host Of Other Areas? How Vulnerable Is The Region To Climate Change? What Else Do We Need To Know About It, And How Can We Limit Its Adverse Effects? In Addressing These And Other Questions, The Book Offers Decision Makers And Stakeholders A Substantial Basis From Which To Make Informed Choices That Will Affect The Well-being Of The Region’s Inhabitants In The Decades To Come. Acknowledgements -- Abbreviations And Acronyms -- 1. Summary For Decision Makers -- Part 1. Context. 2. Overview -- 3. The Changing Southwest -- Part 2. Weather And Climate Of The Southwest. 4. Present Weather And Climate: Average Conditions -- 5. Present Weather And Climate: Evolving Conditions -- 6. Future Climate: Projected Average -- 7. Future Climate: Projected Extremes -- Part 3. Effects Of Climate Change In The Southwest. 8. Natural Ecosystems -- 9. Coastal Issues -- 10. Water: Impacts, Risks, And Adaptation -- 11. Agriculture And Ranching -- 12. Energy: Supply, Demand, And Impacts -- 13. Urban Areas -- 14. Transportation -- 15. Human Health -- 16. Climate Change And U.s.-mexico Border Communities -- 17. Unique Challenges Facing Southwestern Tribes -- Part 4. Options And Research Needs. 18. Climate Choices For A Sustainable Southwest -- 19. Moving Forward With Imperfect Information -- 20. Research Strategies For Addressing Uncertainties -- References -- Glossary -- Author And Review Editors -- Reviewers. Edited By Gregg Garfin, Angela Jardine, Robert Merideth, Mary Black, Sarah Leroy. Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States, one of a series of regional reports prepared for the 2013 National Climate Assessment, is a landmark study in terms of its breadth and depth of coverage. Coordinated by the Southwest Climate Alliance--a consortium of researchers affiliated with the NOAA Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments in the Southwest (California-Nevada Applications Program, Climate Assessment for the Southwest, Western Water Assessment) and the Department of the Interior Southwest Climate Science Center--the report blends the contributions of 120 experts in climate science, economics, ecology, engineering, geography, hydrology, planning, resource management, and other disciplines to provide the most comprehensive, and understandable, analysis to date about climate and its effects on the people and landscapes of Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah--including the U.S.- Mexico border region and the lands of Native Nations. What is the climate of the Southwest like today? What has it been like in the past, and how is it projected to change over the 21st century? How will that affect water resources, ecosystems, agricultural production, energy supply and delivery, transportation, human health, and a host of other areas? How vulnerable is the region to climate change? What else do we need to know about it, and how can we limit its adverse effects? This report addresses these and other questions, offering decision makers and stakeholders a substantial basis from which to make informed choices that will affect the well-being of the region's inhabitants in the decades to come Front Matter....Pages i-xxii Summary for Decision Makers....Pages 1-20 Overview....Pages 21-36 The Changing Southwest....Pages 37-55 Present Weather and Climate: Average Conditions....Pages 56-73 Present Weather and Climate: Evolving Conditions....Pages 74-100 Future Climate: Projected Average....Pages 101-125 Future Climate: Projected Extremes....Pages 126-147 Natural Ecosystems....Pages 148-167 Coastal Issues....Pages 168-196 Water: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation....Pages 197-217 Agriculture and Ranching....Pages 218-239 Energy: Supply, Demand, and Impacts....Pages 240-266 Urban Areas....Pages 267-296 Transportation....Pages 297-311 Human Health....Pages 312-339 Climate Change and U.S.-Mexico Border Communities....Pages 340-384 Unique Challenges Facing Southwestern Tribes....Pages 385-404 Climate Choices for a Sustainable Southwest....Pages 405-435 Moving Forward with Imperfect Information....Pages 436-461 Research Strategies for Addressing Uncertainties....Pages 462-482 Back Matter....Pages 483-506 The definitive report on the latest climate change impacts, scenarios, vulnerabilities, and adaptive capacity for the southwest United States