Armenia's velvet revolution : authoritarian decline and civil resistance in a multipolar world

"In April 2018, Armenia experienced a remarkable popular uprising leading to the resignation of Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan and his replacement by protest leader Nikol Pashinyan. Evoking Czechoslovakia's similarly peaceful overthrow of communism 30 years previously, the uprising came to be known as Armenia's 'Velvet Revolution': a broad-based movement calling for clean government, democracy and economic reform. This volume examines how a popular protest movement, showcasing civil disobedience as a mass strategy for the first time in the post-Soviet space, overcame these unpromising circumstances. Situating the events in Armenia in their national, regional and global contexts, different contributions evaluate the causes driving Armenia's unexpected democratic turn, the reasons for regime vulnerability and the factors mediating a non-violent outcome. Drawing on comparative perspectives with democratic transitions across the world, this book will be essential reading for those interested in the regime dynamics, social movements and contested politics of contemporary Eurasia, as well as policy-makers and practitioners in the fields of democracy assistance and human rights in an increasingly multipolar world."-- Provided by publisher Title Page 4 Copyright Page 5 Contents 6 Illustrations 7 Figure 7 Tables 7 Contributors 8 Foreword 10 Acknowledgements 15 Introduction: An unlikely transition? 18 The events of April–May 2018 19 Domestic constraints on a democratic breakthrough 23 International constraints on democratic transition 26 Chapter guide 29 References 38 Chapter 1: Velvet is not a colour: Armenia’s democratic transition in a global context 42 Introduction 42 From people to parliament: The dual transition of Armenia’s Velvet 45 The patterns of mass mobilization: From Bahrain to Brazil 48 Stateness for and against democracy 54 Conclusion: Theoretical and policy implications from Armenia’s Velvet 60 Notes 62 References 63 Chapter 2: Thirty years of protest: How Armenia’s legacy of political and civic protests prepared the Velvet Revolution 68 Peaceful protest under the Soviet system: Protest mobilization in Armenia before 1991 68 Before protest became ‘mainstream’: Mobilizations after disputed elections in post-Soviet Armenia 71 Small but efficient: Civic activism and protest in pre-revolutionary Armenia 76 Writing on the wall: ‘Electric Yerevan’ and Sasna Tsrer 79 Epilogue: From Freedom Square to Republic Square 83 Note 85 References 85 Chapter 3: How Serzh Sargsyan and the Republican Party of Armenia lost control of a competitive authoritarian system 90 Introduction 90 The sources of competitive politics in Armenia 91 Authoritarian endurance in Armenia: legitimation, repression and co-optation 96 The Velvet Revolution as legitimation failure, coercive decline and co-optation success 101 Conclusion 109 Acknowledgements 112 Notes 112 References 113 Chapter 4: Armenian civil society: Growing pains, honing skills and possible pitfalls 118 Introduction 118 Armenian civil society: Three decades of development 120 Stage I: The Karabakh movement and humanitarian aid (1988–91) 121 Stage II: NGO-ization of Armenian civil society (1992–2006) 122 Stage III: Re-emergence of civic activism (2007–18) 123 Stage IV: A new ‘post-revolutionary’ stage? 125 The role of civil society in the Velvet Revolution 125 Civil society after 2018: Potential pitfalls 128 Conclusion 130 Notes 131 References 133 Chapter 5: Donning the Velvet: Non-violent resistance in the 136 Introduction 136 Non-violent resistance 137 Non-violent resistance in the Velvet Revolution 138 Activating unity, strategy and non-violent discipline 142 Democratization after non-violent resistance 145 Remaining challenges 147 Conclusion 149 Notes 150 References 151 Chapter 6: Armenia’s transition: The challenges of geography, geopolitics and multipolarity 158 Introduction 158 Revisiting the ABCs of Armenian strategy: Adaptation, balancing and ‘complementarity’ – and velvet 160 Multipolarity and a new crisis of confidence 162 The imperative of a ‘small state strategy’ 167 Conclusion: Promise and peril 173 References 174 Chapter 7: Preserving the alliance against tall odds: Armenia’s Velvet Revolution as a challenge to Russia 178 Introduction 178 An asymmetric partnership shaped by security dependency 179 Eroding Russian dominance over Caucasian geopolitics 180 Russia’s unwavering stance against revolutions 182 Extensive Russian use of political corruption 184 Russian responses to the Velvet surprise: Shock and ambivalence 186 Possible Russian manipulations of post-revolutionary Armenia 188 Conclusion 190 References 191 Chapter 8: Political patriarchy: Gendered hierarchies, paternalism, and public space in Armenia’s ‘Velvet Revolution’ 198 Decentralized protest and gendered hierarchies 202 The problem of propriety 206 Political/public space and paternalism 211 Conclusion 214 References 215 Chapter 9: Democratization and diaspora: The Velvet Revolution and the Armenian nation abroad 218 Diasporas and pro-democracy revolutions? 220 Identity gerrymandering: The Armenian state’s approach to diaspora relations 221 A tale of two diasporas: Western and post-Soviet 223 The diaspora as a force for continuity 224 The Velvet Revolution: Limited diaspora involvement 227 Organizational inaction 229 Diaspora celebrities play a supporting role 232 From Russia, with cautious neutrality 233 Post-Revolution: Continuity or change in state-diaspora relations? 235 A ‘Velvet Revolution’ in the diaspora? 237 A Velvet Revolution in state-diaspora relations? 239 Notes 240 References 241 Conclusion: What’s next for Armenia? Authoritarian reserves and risks in a democratic state 248 Authoritarian decline, persistence and reserves 249 Sustained civic activism, institutional erosion and the rebirth of political parties 252 Multipolarity, neo-imperialism and regional fracture 255 Overcoming the false choice between security and democracy 258 A democratic dyad in the South Caucasus 259 From crude to calibrated: the three ‘Cs’ in saving the liberal order 262 References 266 Index 270