Arab Political Demography: Population Growth, Labor Migration and Natalist Policies (Revised and Expanded Third Edition)

The Arab Spring exposed the fundamental weakness of the non-oil Arab economies, namely, the imbalance between population growth and the labour market, resulting in the emergence of structural unemployment among young adults. By the early 2000s these economies faced impossible circumstances: in order to achieve substantial economic growth they had to reduce subsidies and increase privatisation -- economic policies that led to a deterioration of the living standards of the vast majority of the population. The Arab Spring created a new category in the region, that of "failed Arab state", characterised by a fallen "old regime" without a competent new regime to replace it. Civil wars resulted, along lines of religious or ethnic division, as in Syria (Alawites against Sunnis), Iraq (Shi'is against Sunnis and Kurds against Arabs) and in Yemen (Shiis against Sunnis). Regional divisions accounted for the civil war in Libya. The other side of the "new Arab map" is the Arabian Gulf oil states which continue to function as before, both politically and socioeconomically. Chapter 1 places Arab countries in the global demographic picture. Chapter 2 examines the quantity of the demographic records of Arab countries. Chapter 3 deals with patterns of population growth of Arab countries. Chapter 4 analyses the emergence of employment pressure. Chapter 5 discusses intra-Arab labour migration. Chapter 6 analyses natalist policies. The Concluding Chapter examines the "demographic fingerprint" of the Arab Spring which not only was the "core" of the revolution, but also its main consequence in the form of drawing the new political map of the Arab region according to an ethno-religious composition. Until the mid-1970s, the Syrian authorities implemented a pro-natalist policy due to a labor shortage. Likewise, from the October 1973 "oil boom" through the 1990s, the Arabian Gulf oil-states implemented extensive pro-natalist policies due to an extreme labor shortage. In the mid-1970s, unemployment in Jordan was less than 2%, and it became a labor-importer in order to avoid a labor shortage. During the 1980s, Iraq implemented pro-natalist policies, and also imported more than a million Egyptian workers due to its labor shortage. A generation later, by the end of 2010 and early 2011, the huge unemployment rates, particularly among the educated young, was the paramount cause of the Arab Spring events. Written specifically for researchers and students, this revised and expanded third edition outlines the major demographic developments which occurred in the Arab region from the late Ottoman period until the present. These developments include: the process of rapid population growth in the Arab countries and its various consequences, particularly in the areas of employment demands and the creation of the young age pyramid which dictates the continuation of the rapid population growth in the foreseeable future; the transformation of the small Shaykhdoms in the Arabian Gulf region into rich oil and gas exporters and consequently the unprecedented increase in the number of foreign workers in these economies so that nationals have become a tiny percentage of the total workforce; the development of the natalist approach of the Arab countries since the 1950s; and lastly the "demographic fingerprint" of the Arab Spring events which, in many respects, has drawn a new political map of the whole Arab region in line with its traditional ethno-religious composition. Book jacket Introduction : The Methodological Framework Of Political Demography -- Global Demographic History -- Sources For Demographic Research Of The Arab States -- Arab Population Growth -- The Victory Of Numbers : The Emergence Of Structural Unemployment -- The Intra-arab Labor Migration : Scale, Causes And Consequences -- Between Pro-natalism And Anti-natalism In The Arab Countries -- Summary And Conclusion : The Road To The Arab Demographic Winter. Onm Winckler. Includes Bibliographical References (pages 212-295) And Index.