Apocalypse When?: Calculating How Long the Human Race Will Survive (Springer Praxis Books / Popular Science)

This Book Will Be A Key Trailblazer In A New And Upcoming Field. The Author’s Predictive Approach Relies On Simple And Intuitive Probability Formulations That Will Appeal To Readers With A Modest Knowledge Of Astronomy, Mathematics, And Statistics. Wells’ Carefully Erected Theory Stands On A Sure Footing And Thus Should Serve As The Basis Of Many Rational Predictions Of Survival In The Face Of Not Only Natural Disasters Such As Hits By Asteroids Or Comets, But Perhaps More Surprisingly From Man-made Hazards Arising From Genetic Engineering Or Robotics. Any Formula For Predicting Human Survival Will Invite Controversy. Dr Wells Counters Anticipated Criticism With A Thorough Approach In Which Four Lines Of Reasoning Are Used To Arrive At The Same Survival Formula. One Uses Empirical Survival Statistics For Business Firms And Stage Shows. Another Is Based On Uncertainty Of Risk Rates. The Third, More Abstract, Invokes Laplace’s Principle Of Insufficient Reason And Involves An Observer’s Random Arrival In The Lifetime Of The Entity (the Human Race) In Question. The Fourth Uses Bayesian Theory. The Author Carefully Explains And Gives Examples Of The Conditions Under Which His Principle Is Valid And Provides Evidence That Can Counteract The Arguments Of Critics Who Would Reject It Entirely. His Deflection Of Possible Criticisms Results From Two Major Premises: Selecting The Proper Random Variable And “reference Class” To Make Predictions, And The Recognition That If One Does Not Know The Law That Governs A Process, Then The Best Prediction That Can Be Made Is His Own Formula. Introduction -- Formulation -- Context And Confirmations -- Multivariate Theory -- Human Survivability -- Discussion And Conjectures -- Appendices -- References. By Willard Wells. 0387098364......Page 1 Title Page ......Page 3 Copyright Page ......Page 4 Table of contents ......Page 5 Preface ......Page 9 Acknowledgments ......Page 12 Figures ......Page 13 Pictures ......Page 14 Tables ......Page 16 Algebraic symbols ......Page 17 Abbreviations and acronym ......Page 19 About the author ......Page 20 Introduction ......Page 21 1 Formulation ......Page 30 1.1 MULTIPLE HAZARD RATES ......Page 33 1.2 PROBABLITY THEORY: A QUICK REVIEW ......Page 37 1.3 CHANGING HAZARD RATES ......Page 39 1.4 POSTERIOR PROBABILITY ......Page 40 1.5 PRINCIPLE OF INDIFFERENCE ......Page 44 1.6 CUMULATIVE RISK ......Page 53 2.1 BAYES' THEORY ......Page 58 2.2 STATISTICS OF BUSINESS FIRMS ......Page 60 2.3 STATISTICS OF STAGE PRODUCTIONS ......Page 64 2.4 LONGEVITY RANK ......Page 71 2.5 UNIVARIATE SUMMARY ......Page 72 3.1 A PARADOX ......Page 75 3.2 FORMULATION ......Page 76 3.3 AN EXAMPLE ......Page 79 3.4 LOGIC DIAGRAM ......Page 82 3.5 FURTURE RESEARCH ......Page 83 4 Human survivability ......Page 85 4.1 FORMULATION ......Page 87 4.2 HAZARDOUS DEVELOPMENT ......Page 91 4.3 PREDICTOR FORMULATION ......Page 99 4.4 SURVIVABILITY OF CIVILIZATION ......Page 102 4.5 SURVIVABILITY OF THE HUMAN RACE ......Page 104 4.6 SUMMARY AND CURRENT HAZARD RATES ......Page 107 4.7 BIASES ......Page 109 5 Apocalypse how? ......Page 111 5.1 SCENARIOS FOR EXTINCTION ......Page 112 5.2 WILD CARDS ......Page 123 5.3 OVERRATED NATURAL HAZARDS ......Page 130 5.4 TRIAGE ......Page 132 5.5 REFLECTIONS ON THIS STUDY ......Page 134 5.6 PROSPECTS FOR A SAFER WORLD ......Page 135 5.7 SYSTEMIC STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES ......Page 138 5.8 SECOND CHANCE? ......Page 141 5.9 SURVIVAL HABITAT ......Page 143 Appendix A Survival formula derived from hazard rates ......Page 147 A.1 VARIABLE HAZARD RATE ......Page 149 A.2 UNKNOWN VULNERABILITY ......Page 150 Appendix B Posterior survivability ......Page 152 Appendix C Infinite mean duration ......Page 154 Appendix D Survival predictor from Bayes' theory ......Page 156 D.1 ADVANCE KNOWLEDGE ......Page 159 D.2 NONINFORMATIVE PRIOR PROBABILITY ......Page 162 Appendix E Stage productions running on specified dates ......Page 163 Appendix F Extinction rates of prehistoric taxa ......Page 175 Appendix G Disaggregated mortality ......Page 178 Appendix H Stage productions with dual cum-risks ......Page 181 Appendix I Overall plan for survivability calculation ......Page 201 Appendix J Multiple hazards ......Page 203 Appendix K Cum-risks for man-made hazards ......Page 206 Appendix L Statistical weights for types of hazards ......Page 210 Appendix M Extinction thwartered by civilization's collapse ......Page 212 Appendix N Initial hazard rates ......Page 215 References ......Page 217 Index ......Page 221 Praxis 0387098364 1 Title Page 3 Copyright Page 4 Table of contents 5 Preface 9 Acknowledgments 12 Figures 13 Pictures 14 Tables 16 Algebraic symbols 17 Abbreviations and acronym 19 About the author 20 Introduction 21 1 Formulation 30 1.1 MULTIPLE HAZARD RATES 33 1.2 PROBABLITY THEORY: A QUICK REVIEW 37 1.3 CHANGING HAZARD RATES 39 1.4 POSTERIOR PROBABILITY 40 1.5 PRINCIPLE OF INDIFFERENCE 44 1.6 CUMULATIVE RISK 53 2 Confirmation 58 2.1 BAYES' THEORY 58 2.2 STATISTICS OF BUSINESS FIRMS 60 2.3 STATISTICS OF STAGE PRODUCTIONS 64 2.4 LONGEVITY RANK 71 2.5 UNIVARIATE SUMMARY 72 3 Double jeopardy 75 3.1 A PARADOX 75 3.2 FORMULATION 76 3.3 AN EXAMPLE 79 3.4 LOGIC DIAGRAM 82 3.5 FURTURE RESEARCH 83 4 Human survivability 85 4.1 FORMULATION 87 4.2 HAZARDOUS DEVELOPMENT 91 4.3 PREDICTOR FORMULATION 99 4.4 SURVIVABILITY OF CIVILIZATION 102 4.5 SURVIVABILITY OF THE HUMAN RACE 104 4.6 SUMMARY AND CURRENT HAZARD RATES 107 4.7 BIASES 109 5 Apocalypse how? 111 5.1 SCENARIOS FOR EXTINCTION 112 5.2 WILD CARDS 123 5.3 OVERRATED NATURAL HAZARDS 130 5.4 TRIAGE 132 5.5 REFLECTIONS ON THIS STUDY 134 5.6 PROSPECTS FOR A SAFER WORLD 135 5.7 SYSTEMIC STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES 138 5.8 SECOND CHANCE? 141 5.9 SURVIVAL HABITAT 143 Appendix A Survival formula derived from hazard rates 147 A.1 VARIABLE HAZARD RATE 149 A.2 UNKNOWN VULNERABILITY 150 Appendix B Posterior survivability 152 Appendix C Infinite mean duration 154 Appendix D Survival predictor from Bayes' theory 156 D.1 ADVANCE KNOWLEDGE 159 D.2 NONINFORMATIVE PRIOR PROBABILITY 162 Appendix E Stage productions running on specified dates 163 Appendix F Extinction rates of prehistoric taxa 175 Appendix G Disaggregated mortality 178 Appendix H Stage productions with dual cum-risks 181 Appendix I Overall plan for survivability calculation 201 Appendix J Multiple hazards 203 Appendix K Cum-risks for man-made hazards 206 Appendix L Statistical weights for types of hazards 210 Appendix M Extinction thwartered by civilization's collapse 212 Appendix N Initial hazard rates 215 References 217 Index 221 ISBN-13:,9780387098364 This book will be a key trailblazer in a new and upcoming field. The author’s predictive approach relies on simple and intuitive probability formulations that will appeal to readers with a modest knowledge of astronomy, mathematics, and statistics. Wells’ carefully erected theory stands on a sure footing and thus should serve as the basis of many rational predictions of survival in the face of natural disasters such as hits by asteroids or comets in the coming years. Any formula for predicting human survival will invite controversy. Dr Wells counters anticipated criticism with a thorough approach in which four lines of reasoning are used to arrive at the same survival formula. One uses empirical survival statistics for business firms and stage shows. Another is based on uncertainty of risk rates. The third, more abstract, invokes Laplace’s principle of insufficient reason and involves an observer’s random arrival in the lifetime of the entity (the human race) in question. The fourth uses Bayesian theory. The author carefully explains and gives examples of the conditions under which his principle is valid and provides evidence that can counteract the arguments of critics who would reject it entirely. His deflection of possible criticisms results from two major premises: selecting the proper random variable and “reference class” to make predictions, and the recognition that if one does not know the law that governs a process, then the best prediction that can be made is his own formula. Relies on intuitive probability formulations that are suitable for readers with a modest knowledge of astronomy, mathematics, and statistics. This book explains and gives examples of the conditions under which the author's principle is valid and provides evidence that can counteract the arguments of critics who would reject it entirely In Apocalypse When? Willard Wells takes the laws of probability as the foundation for his carefully worked out formula for human survival. Using common examples- stage shows and businesses- he shows how their survival resembles humanity's.--[book cover]